Signal Ledger valuation · SPGI · AUTO

S&P Global Inc.

What the shares are worth today on reported data and uniform rules (no analyst has reviewed this company yet): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$480.50+1% vs $475.17 at research
Business value at FY2030
$184B
FY2030 revenue
$23B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$29.65 · 22×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
8.55% · 8.99%

AUTO. Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst.

Generated Nov 3, 2026 from SEC filing 0000064040-26-000058 · price $475.17 at research time · Valuation methodology

Reported Oct 27, before open

The company filed its results (SEC 8-K ↗). This company's valuation is an automatic estimate from SEC filings, not reviewed by an analyst, so we show no checked figures for this quarter here.

MeasureOn record beforeReportedResult
Shares, first full session after—−0.3%S&P 500 fund +0.6%

Rule EPS estimates begin with reports after Nov 2, 2026, so this report has none. Nothing of ours was frozen for it.

The table does not include price calls. Our record on those is in the track record.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Market Intelligence SegmentMargin$6.5B$22B$74.6416.1× EBIT67%
Ratings SegmentMargin$6.7B$67B$230.0016.6× EBIT67%
Energy SegmentMargin$3.3B$21B$71.6516.5× EBIT67%
Indices SegmentMargin$3.5B$39B$135.1218.5× EBIT69%
MobilityMargin$2.6B$9.6B$33.2116.9× EBIT68%
Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative businessCost line—−$2.5B−$8.63—67%
All businesses$23B$155B$536.00

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$184B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$8.4B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$193B
  4. ÷ (1 + 8.99%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$134B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$4B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$155B
  2. − borrowings$13B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. − preferred and minority claims$5.5B
  5. + cash and short-term investments$2.4B
  6. ÷ diluted shares0.290B
  7. Signal Ledger valuation$480.50

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$17B$8.1B$1.1B$5.5B$15B
FY2027$18B$9B$1.1B$6.2B$11B
FY2028$19B$9.9B$1.2B$6.9B$5.3B
FY2029$21B$11B$1.3B$7.7B$1B cash
FY2030$23B$12B$1.4B$8.5B$8.4B cash

What must be true

  • Market Intelligence Segment grows revenue from $5.2B in FY2026 to $6.5B in FY2030 (1.3×).
  • Ratings Segment grows revenue from $4.9B in FY2026 to $6.7B in FY2030 (1.4×).
  • Energy Segment grows revenue from $2.5B in FY2026 to $3.3B in FY2030 (1.3×).
  • Indices Segment grows revenue from $2.1B in FY2026 to $3.5B in FY2030 (1.7×).
  • Mobility grows revenue from $1.9B in FY2026 to $2.6B in FY2030 (1.4×).
  • Market Intelligence Segment raises its EBIT margin from 20.2% to 24.2%.
  • Ratings Segment raises its EBIT margin from 66.2% to 70.2%.
  • Energy Segment raises its EBIT margin from 41.0% to 45.0%.
  • Indices Segment raises its EBIT margin from 69.1% to 73.1%.
  • Mobility raises its EBIT margin from 21.6% to 25.6%.
  • The company spends $6.2B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $16.1B in FY2025 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $475.17 is about $22.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 7.8% a year from FY2026) with 48.6% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $22.6B and 48.6% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $475.17 (2026-11-03), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
0.99×At research margins$22.4B7.8%
48.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$34B19.7%
33.1% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$45.3B28.6%
25.4% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$67.9B42.3%
17.4% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $16.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
8.6%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.6% WACC · 9.0% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
0.99×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $22.4B (model: $22.6B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Ratings Segment

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $6.6B (model: $6.7B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 68.6% (model: 70.2%).

Indices Segment

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $3.4B (model: $3.5B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 70.2% (model: 73.1%).

Market Intelligence Segment

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $6B (model: $6.5B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 22.5% (model: 24.2%).

Energy Segment

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $3B (model: $3.3B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 41.7% (model: 45.0%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
8.99%

r_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.02 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
8.55%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.89% · 4.94%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 36 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2026Market Intelligence Segment$5.2BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2030Market Intelligence Segment$6.5BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Market Intelligence Segment24.2%Rulelinear path to 24.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Maintenance capexMarket Intelligence Segment12.9%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Terminal growthMarket Intelligence Segment3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Ratings Segment$4.9BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.1% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2030Ratings Segment$6.7BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.1% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Ratings Segment70.2%Rulelinear path to 70.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Maintenance capexRatings Segment1.3%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Terminal growthRatings Segment3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Energy Segment$2.5BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2030Energy Segment$3.3BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Energy Segment45.0%Rulelinear path to 45.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Maintenance capexEnergy Segment6.0%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Terminal growthEnergy Segment3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Indices Segment$2.1BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 13.7% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2030Indices Segment$3.5BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 13.7% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Indices Segment73.1%Rulelinear path to 73.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 13.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Maintenance capexIndices Segment2.3%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Terminal growthIndices Segment3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Mobility$1.9BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2030Mobility$2.6BRulehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Mobility25.6%Rulelinear path to 25.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Maintenance capexMobility7.7%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Terminal growthMobility3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Share of revenue FY2026Company costs0.8%Rulecompany costs outside segment profit, cash only: Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): annual sum of line EBIT minus consolidated EBIT; zero suppresses duplicate corporate costs after allocation; grows with the lines' revenue SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013
Share of revenue FY2034Company costs0.8%Rulecompany costs outside segment profit, cash only: Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): annual sum of line EBIT minus consolidated EBIT; zero suppresses duplicate corporate costs after allocation; grows with the lines' revenue SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013
WACCDiscount rates8.55%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-29..2026-10-30
Cost of equityDiscount rates8.99%Ruler_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.02 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-10..2026-10 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates21.0%RuleAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): uniform tax-rate default; no verified effective tax rate in evidence Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$2.4BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000064040-26-000058 (filed 2026-10-28)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$13.1BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000064040-26-000058 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000064040-26-000058
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-09-30
Minority interestsBalance sheet$5.5BReportednoncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000064040-26-000058 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0000064040-26-000058
SharesBalance sheet0.290BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-10-23 cover page of 10-Q 0000064040-26-000058
Dividends per yearShareholders$1.1BReportedAutomatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): latest annual dividend per share held flat × 0.290B shares SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.2916B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0000064040-26-000058; point-in-time denominator retained
  • unallocated company costs: $0.1B a year (0.8% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
  • cost of equity 8.99% (β 1.02 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.6%

Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst. This is a research model, not investment advice. Automatic rules (auto-reported-v1) read SEC reported facts; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →