Signal Ledger valuation · SPGI · AUTO
S&P Global Inc.
What the shares are worth today on reported data and uniform rules (no analyst has reviewed this company yet): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $184B
- FY2030 revenue
- $23B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $29.65 · 22×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.55% · 8.99%
AUTO. Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst.
Reported Oct 27, before open
The company filed its results (SEC 8-K ↗). This company's valuation is an automatic estimate from SEC filings, not reviewed by an analyst, so we show no checked figures for this quarter here.
| Measure | On record before | Reported | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shares, first full session after | — | −0.3% | S&P 500 fund +0.6% |
Rule EPS estimates begin with reports after Nov 2, 2026, so this report has none. Nothing of ours was frozen for it.
The table does not include price calls. Our record on those is in the track record.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Intelligence Segment | Margin | $6.5B | $22B | $74.64 | 16.1× EBIT | 67% |
| Ratings Segment | Margin | $6.7B | $67B | $230.00 | 16.6× EBIT | 67% |
| Energy Segment | Margin | $3.3B | $21B | $71.65 | 16.5× EBIT | 67% |
| Indices Segment | Margin | $3.5B | $39B | $135.12 | 18.5× EBIT | 69% |
| Mobility | Margin | $2.6B | $9.6B | $33.21 | 16.9× EBIT | 68% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$2.5B | −$8.63 | — | 67% |
| All businesses | $23B | $155B | $536.00 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$184B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$8.4B
- Equity value at FY2030$193B
- ÷ (1 + 8.99%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$134B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$4B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$155B
- − borrowings$13B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$5.5B
- + cash and short-term investments$2.4B
- ÷ diluted shares0.290B
- Signal Ledger valuation$480.50
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $17B | $8.1B | $1.1B | $5.5B | $15B |
| FY2027 | $18B | $9B | $1.1B | $6.2B | $11B |
| FY2028 | $19B | $9.9B | $1.2B | $6.9B | $5.3B |
| FY2029 | $21B | $11B | $1.3B | $7.7B | $1B cash |
| FY2030 | $23B | $12B | $1.4B | $8.5B | $8.4B cash |
What must be true
- Market Intelligence Segment grows revenue from $5.2B in FY2026 to $6.5B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Ratings Segment grows revenue from $4.9B in FY2026 to $6.7B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Energy Segment grows revenue from $2.5B in FY2026 to $3.3B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Indices Segment grows revenue from $2.1B in FY2026 to $3.5B in FY2030 (1.7×).
- Mobility grows revenue from $1.9B in FY2026 to $2.6B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Market Intelligence Segment raises its EBIT margin from 20.2% to 24.2%.
- Ratings Segment raises its EBIT margin from 66.2% to 70.2%.
- Energy Segment raises its EBIT margin from 41.0% to 45.0%.
- Indices Segment raises its EBIT margin from 69.1% to 73.1%.
- Mobility raises its EBIT margin from 21.6% to 25.6%.
- The company spends $6.2B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $16.1B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $475.17 is about $22.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 7.8% a year from FY2026) with 48.6% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $22.6B and 48.6% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $475.17 (2026-11-03), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.99×At research margins | $22.4B | 7.8% | 48.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $34B | 19.7% | 33.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $45.3B | 28.6% | 25.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $67.9B | 42.3% | 17.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $16.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.6%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.99×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.6% WACC · 9.0% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $22.4B (model: $22.6B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Ratings Segment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $6.6B (model: $6.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 68.6% (model: 70.2%).
Indices Segment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $3.4B (model: $3.5B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 70.2% (model: 73.1%).
Market Intelligence Segment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $6B (model: $6.5B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 22.5% (model: 24.2%).
Energy Segment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $3B (model: $3.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 41.7% (model: 45.0%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.99%
- WACC
- 8.55%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.89% · 4.94%
r_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.02 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 36 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Market Intelligence Segment | $5.2B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Market Intelligence Segment | $6.5B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Market Intelligence Segment | 24.2% | Rule | linear path to 24.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MarketIntelligenceSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexMarket Intelligence Segment | 12.9% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthMarket Intelligence Segment | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Ratings Segment | $4.9B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.1% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Ratings Segment | $6.7B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.1% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Ratings Segment | 70.2% | Rule | linear path to 70.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:RatingsSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexRatings Segment | 1.3% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthRatings Segment | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Energy Segment | $2.5B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Energy Segment | $3.3B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Energy Segment | 45.0% | Rule | linear path to 45.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:EnergySegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEnergy Segment | 6.0% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthEnergy Segment | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Indices Segment | $2.1B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 13.7% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Indices Segment | $3.5B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 13.7% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Indices Segment | 73.1% | Rule | linear path to 73.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 13.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:IndicesSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexIndices Segment | 2.3% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0000064040-26-000013 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthIndices Segment | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Mobility | $1.9B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Mobility | $2.6B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Mobility | 25.6% | Rule | linear path to 25.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual spgi:MobilityMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexMobility | 7.7% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthMobility | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 0.8% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): annual sum of line EBIT minus consolidated EBIT; zero suppresses duplicate corporate costs after allocation; grows with the lines' revenue SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 0.8% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): annual sum of line EBIT minus consolidated EBIT; zero suppresses duplicate corporate costs after allocation; grows with the lines' revenue SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.55% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-29..2026-10-30 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.99% | Rule | r_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.02 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-10..2026-10 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): uniform tax-rate default; no verified effective tax rate in evidence Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $2.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000064040-26-000058 (filed 2026-10-28) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $13.1B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000064040-26-000058 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000064040-26-000058 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $5.5B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000064040-26-000058 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0000064040-26-000058 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.290B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-23 cover page of 10-Q 0000064040-26-000058 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $1.1B | Reported | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): latest annual dividend per share held flat × 0.290B shares SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0000064040-26-000013 |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.2916B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0000064040-26-000058; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.1B a year (0.8% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 8.99% (β 1.02 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.6%
Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst. This is a research model, not investment advice. Automatic rules (auto-reported-v1) read SEC reported facts; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →