SLSignal Ledger
SEC + quote · on demand
ROUTERFabless compute and accelerator semiconductor→ AI Semiconductor / Structural Growth

PROVISIONAL · INTERNAL FORECAST · Semiconductors

Advanced Micro Devices AMD

AI and data-center growth dominate near-term value, but cash conversion and the terminal multiple remain binding.

RATINGSELLThe selected price is materially above risk-adjusted fair value.
Current price$516.13Nasdaq Quote API · provider timestamp · Sep 10, 2026
Signal Ledger Fair Value$137PROVISIONAL · INTERNAL FORECAST · confidence-weighted ensemble
Expected upside / downside-73.5%Fair value versus selected price
Model confidence39%4 of 4 valuation models calculated
Bear · P10$109
Base · Ensemble$137
Bull · P90$165
Buy Zone$110Family risk buffer applied
Strong Buy Zone$90Higher uncertainty haircut

MARKET-IMPLIED EXPECTATIONS

What is the market already pricing in?

How much durable accelerator growth and cash conversion is already capitalized?

Implied FCF CAGR55.7%
Terminal FCF$84.9B
Implied revenue$386.3B
Price / baseline EPS157.6×

AI BASELINE

Evidence before opinion

FCFF $11.2B → $23.6B · EPS $3.27 · 29.2× P/E · 10.5% WACC · 3.5% terminal growth

Source posture: reported internal forecast. Baseline facts and forecasts are preserved separately from the research view.

SIGNAL LEDGER VIEW

Adjust the assumptions, not the answer

Growth path 0.0%FCF margin +0.0 ptsJustified multiples 0.0%

Signal Ledger uses the SEC-reported history and the disclosed internal forecast without an additional thesis adjustment.

VALUATION MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the ensemble earns its weight

Effective weight = base weight × confidence × historical reliability. Missing models receive zero weight.

ModelOutputBaseConfidenceReliabilityEffectiveRole / evidence
FCFF DCFdcf$17130%56%72%39%Discounted FCFF plus net cash, divided by diluted shares.
Forward P/Eforward pe$9520%54%75%26%Forward EPS multiplied by the justified forward earnings multiple.
EV / FCFev fcf$13018%56%69%23%Forward FCF capitalized at an EV/FCF multiple, bridged to equity.
EV / Salesev sales$13012%48%61%11%Forward revenue capitalized at an EV/Sales multiple, with profitability checked separately.
Reverse DCFreverse dcfDiagnostic—52%74%—Diagnostic only: the implied growth path is not blended into fair value.

PROBABILITY, NOT FALSE PRECISION

Fair-value distribution

25,000 deterministic paths
P10$109
P25$120
P50$134
P75$149
P90$165
PRICE$516

VARIANT PATH

What must outperform

Revenue growth must track near 24% initially while normalized FCF margin approaches 22%.

WHAT BREAKS FIRST

Downside mechanism

Growth or cash conversion below the disclosed baseline reduces both forecast cash flow and the justified multiple; leverage can amplify the equity impact.

EVIDENCE GATE

What changes the view

Re-run after each 10-Q or 10-K and replace internal assumptions when verified guidance or comparable consensus becomes available.

Model router, raw assumptions and evidence gaps

ROUTER COVERAGE

AI SemiconductorDCF · Forward P/E · EV/FCF · EV/Sales · REVERSE DCF
Mature SemiconductorNormalized cycle · DCF · P/E · EV/FCF
SaaS GrowthNormalized DCF · EV/Sales · EV/FCF
Cloud / Software HybridNormalized DCF · P/E · SOTP
BankResidual income · P/TBV · P/E
REITNAV · AFFO · DCF
BiotechrNPV · DCF · EV/Sales
Auto + OptionalitySOTP · DCF · P/E
Private AerospaceSOTP · EV/Sales · DCF · liquidity risk
General EquityNormalized DCF · P/E · EV/FCF · EV/Sales

SELECTED ROUTE

Sector
Semiconductors
Growth stage
Structural growth
Profitability
Profitable
Capital intensity
Medium
Key drivers
Data Center revenue · AI accelerator adoption · gross margin · FCF conversion
Rating scale
STRONG BUY / BUY / WATCH / REDUCE / SELL
Baseline inputs
FCFF $11.2B → $23.6B · EPS $3.27 · 29.2× P/E · 10.5% WACC · 3.5% terminal growth
Capital bridge
Net cash / (debt) $13.1B · diluted shares 1.64B

SOURCES & EVIDENCE GAPS

  • cashFlowsinternal forecast · Forecast from SEC-reported revenue, operating cash flow and capital expenditure history
  • normalizedCashFlowsinternal forecast · Forecast from SEC-reported revenue, operating cash flow and capital expenditure history
  • forwardRevenueBinternal forecast · Historical-growth forecast with sector mean reversion
  • forwardFcfBinternal forecast · Revenue forecast multiplied by normalized FCF margin
  • forwardEpsinternal forecast · SEC-reported net margin applied to forecast revenue
  • netCashBreported · Latest SEC-reported cash, investments and debt
  • dilutedSharesBreported · Latest SEC-reported diluted or outstanding shares
  • Live sell-side consensus and revision history
  • Company-specific management guidance normalization
  • Peer-regression and sector KPI pack

Internal forecasts are derived from reported evidence and labeled explicitly. The engine does not claim access to proprietary trading systems.