Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $729B
- FY2030 net income
- $55B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $20.87 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.94% · 8.94%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 13, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer & Community Banking (managed basis) | $21.2B | +9% | — | — |
| Commercial & Investment Bank (managed basis) | $22.7B | +14% | — | — |
| Asset & Wealth Management (managed basis) | $6.91B | +14% | — | — |
| Corporate (managed basis) | $93M | −95% | — | — |
- Reported net revenue was $50.172B; segment revenue is on the bank’s managed basis and totals $50.907B after fully taxable-equivalent adjustments.
- The bank reports pretax income, not operating income: consolidated reported pretax income was $20.134B; managed segment pretax income was $7.565B for CCB, $11.300B for CIB, $2.467B for AWM and a $0.463B Corporate loss.
- Reported net income was $15.305B and diluted EPS was $5.57, including $0.658B of pretax investment securities losses ($0.498B after tax).
- ROTCE was 20%; common dividends were $4.4B and net share repurchases were $0.664B. Net payout over the last twelve months was 61%.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorganChase (firm-wide)Banking | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $670B | $252.20 | 2.2× P/B | 32% |
| All businesses | — | $670B | $252.20 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$729B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$729B
- ÷ (1 + 8.94%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$506B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$163B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$670B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares2.656B
- Signal Ledger valuation$252.20
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $0B | $77B | $0B | $51B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $0B | $74B | $0B | $49B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $0B | $72B | $0B | $48B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $0B | $70B | $0B | $46B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $0B | $71B | $0B | $47B | $0B |
What must be true
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- JPMorganChase (firm-wide) moves its return on equity from 20.0% to 17.0% by FY2030, against a 8.94% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $336.54 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.2%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.9% WACC · 8.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.94%
- WACC
- 8.94%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.01 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityJPMorganChase (firm-wide) | $299.1B | Reported | Supplement p 10: common equity 351.328B - goodwill 52.717B - other intangibles 2.378B + related deferred tax liabilities 2.897B = ending TCE 299.130B. Matches ROTCE, excludes preferred 21.040B once. sec.gov ↗ |
| Return on equity FY2026JPMorganChase (firm-wide) | 20.0% | Reported | full-year 2025 return on tangible common equity sec.gov ↗ |
| Return on equity FY2030JPMorganChase (firm-wide) | 17.0% | Guidance | straight line to the 17.0% FY2029 target, then held (methodology §4.6) sec.gov ↗ |
| Payout ratioJPMorganChase (firm-wide) | 85.3% | Reported | FY2025 common dividends declared 16.060B +reported gross common repurchases 31.640B, divided by net income applicable to common equity 55.949B =85.2562154820%. Matches the ROTCE numerator, excludes preferred once; not total net income 57.048B or EPS income after participating securities 55.681B. The release 82% net payout is not this gross common-payout formula; no further normalization. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthJPMorganChase (firm-wide) | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.94% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.94% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.01 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 22.3% | Reported | year-to-date effective rate 3Q26 earnings supplement: effective income tax rate 22.3% for the nine months ended 2026-09-30 |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 2.656B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-30 sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | last four quarters; code pays dividends from the payout ratio instead: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) 3Q26 earnings supplement: dividends declared $1.65 (3Q26) + $1.50 + $1.50 + $1.50 |
Research notes
- balance sheet and shares at 2026-09-30 from the research (newer than the XBRL 2026-06-30); replaced automatically once the filing is in XBRL
- share-count comparison: 2.6942B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001628280-26-054343; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 8.94% (β 1.01 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.9%
- JPMorganChase (firm-wide): residual income on $299.1B of common equity, earnings = ROE × equity, payout 85% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →