Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $89B
- FY2030 net income
- $4.7B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $5.21 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.89% · 9.89%
How this is built. Robinhood has a strategic vision and annual expense outlook but no dated long-range revenue target; FY2026/FY2027 consensus net revenue and rule-based margins define this financial-platform estimate. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Reported Oct 27, after close: Q3 2026
| Measure | On record before | Reported | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Nothing of ours | $1.42B | — |
| Diluted EPS, as the company reported it | Nothing of ours | $0.51 | — |
| Shares, first full session after | — | −3.4% | S&P 500 fund +0.3% |
Rule EPS estimates begin with reports after Nov 2, 2026, so this report has none. Nothing of ours was frozen for it.
The table does not include price calls. Our record on those is in the track record.
Signal Ledger valuation: +1.4% after this report. The change can include other inputs, such as rates and prices, not only the quarter.
What this report changed
- Q3 2026 revenue was a record $1.42B, up 12%, and net income was $468M, with diluted EPS down 16%. Transaction revenue rose 19% to $867M, while net interest revenue fell 9% to $415M.
- For Robinhood's firm-wide business, we raised FY2026 revenue growth from 18.5% to 18.9% and FY2027 revenue from $6.85B to $6.87B, in line with updated consensus estimates.
- We also rolled the balance sheet forward to September 30, which lowered common book equity from $9.48B to $9.14B.
Latest quarter: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 27, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Nov 3, 2026).
- Revenue a record $1.42B, +12%. Diluted EPS $0.51, down 16%. Net deposits $16B and Gold subscribers a record 5.2M.
- Transaction revenue +19% to $867M, led by event contracts $173M (up over 6x) and options $399M (+31%). Net interest revenue -9% to $415M.
- 2026 adjusted operating expense and SBC outlook narrowed to $2.675-2.75B, cutting the top end by $25M.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide)Brokerage and financial platform | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $71B | $79.04 | 9.8× P/B | 59% |
| All businesses | — | $71B | $79.04 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$89B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$89B
- ÷ (1 + 9.89%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$60B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$11B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$71B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.900B
- Signal Ledger valuation$79.04
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $5.3B | $2.5B | $0B | $1.9B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $6.9B | $3.3B | $0B | $2.6B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $8.5B | $4.2B | $0B | $3.2B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $10B | $5.1B | $0B | $4B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $12B | $6.1B | $0B | $4.7B | $0B |
What must be true
- Brokerage and financial platform grows revenue from $5.3B in FY2026 to $11.9B in FY2030 (2.2×).
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- Robinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) moves its return on equity from 21.2% to 51.4% by FY2030, against a 9.89% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $83.84 (2026-11-03), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 9.5%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.9% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.89%
- WACC
- 9.89%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.89% · 4.94%
r_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityRobinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) | $9.1B | Reported | September 2026 total equity $9.151B less non-controlling interests $0.011B = $9.140B common parent equity. No preferred shares; evidence misses the parent-equity subtotal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2026Robinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) | $1.9B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 47.1% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 21.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2030Robinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) | $4.7B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 51.1% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 21.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ |
| Payout ratioRobinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) | 100.0% | Rule | Required asset-light financial model convention: normalized earnings available for capital return. Not actual payout guidance. Margin lending, credit cards and regulatory capital may require retention; future capital intensity remains uncertain. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthRobinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide) | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.89% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-29..2026-10-30 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.89% | Rule | r_f 3.89% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.89% (spot 4.94% on 2026-10-30)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-10..2026-10 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 22.6% | Rule | Normalized statutory proxy: 21% federal plus FY2025 1.6-point state effect. FY2023 losses and FY2024 deferred-tax valuation release make the three-year cash-tax average unsuitable; FY2025 10.7% ETR and H1 FY2026 17.9% ETR contain SBC benefits. No exact long-term guidance. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.900B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-21 cover page of 10-Q 0001783879-26-000167 (2 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Plugin payout supplies distributions; no standalone dividends.: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.911B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0001783879-26-000167; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 9.89% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.9%
- Robinhood brokerage platform (firm-wide): residual income on $9.1B of common equity, earnings = revenue × pre-tax margin, payout 100% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →