Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · AAPL
Apple Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 27, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $4,100B
- FY2030 revenue
- $759B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $16.19 · 20×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.00% · 9.10%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 FY2026
Reported Jul 30, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 27, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Products | $78.7B | +18% | — | — |
| Services | $30.7B | +12% | — | — |
- Latest released quarter as of October 22; subsequent October 27–29 results are not yet reported. Product/category profits left null when not separately disclosed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Products | Margin | $559B | $2,493B | $170.82 | 14.6× EBIT | 63% |
| Services | Margin | $200B | $2,168B | $148.55 | 17.6× EBIT | 67% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$1,220B | −$83.62 | — | 66% |
| Noncurrent marketable securitiesJune 27 balance sheet/Note 3 noncurrent marketable securities at fair value. Separate from 39.544B cash and 22.855B current securities already in the bridge; investment income is below operating income. Added once, without a future market-price uplift. | Market mark | — | $84B | $5.76 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $759B | $3,525B | $241.51 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$4,100B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$667B
- Equity value at FY2030$4,767B
- ÷ (1 + 9.10%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$3,290B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$55B
- + investments held outside the businesses$84B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$3,441B
- − borrowings$84B
- − finance leases$1.2B
- + cash and short-term investments$62B
- + investments held outside the businesses$84B
- ÷ diluted shares14.594B
- Signal Ledger valuation$239.92
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $477B | $157B | $15B | $118B | $3.2B cash |
| FY2027 | $541B | $183B | $17B | $138B | $126B cash |
| FY2028 | $610B | $213B | $19B | $161B | $275B cash |
| FY2029 | $682B | $245B | $21B | $186B | $454B cash |
| FY2030 | $759B | $282B | $23B | $214B | $667B cash |
What must be true
- Products grows revenue from $353.8B in FY2026 to $558.8B in FY2030 (1.6×).
- Services grows revenue from $123.2B in FY2026 to $200.2B in FY2030 (1.6×).
- Products raises its EBIT margin from 32.1% to 36.1%.
- Services raises its EBIT margin from 70.7% to 74.7%.
- The company spends $93.8B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $23.2B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $348.22 at our discount rate, Apple Inc. would need about $1,133B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 24.1% a year from FY2026) with 46.3% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $759B and 46.3% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $348.22 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.49×At research margins | $1,133B | 24.1% | 46.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $1,138.5B | 24.3% | 46.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $1,517.9B | 33.6% | 38.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $2,276.9B | 47.8% | 30.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $477.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.49×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.0% WACC · 9.1% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,133B (model: $759B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Products
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,115.5B (model: $558.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 58.1% (model: 36.1%).
Services
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $373.7B (model: $200.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 128.2% (model: 74.7%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.10%
- WACC
- 9.00%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.05 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 21 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Products | $353.8B | Rule | blend growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.3% fool.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Products | $558.8B | Rule | §4.2 G1: annual hold/fade blend across 14%–16%; fade weight 62.710603%; growth 10.717171%; FY1 input: July 30 CFO outlook: September Services reported growth is similar to June after a 2.5pp sequential FX headwind. June 30.739/27.423-1 less 2.5pp gives 9.592039529%; apply to FY2025 Q4 Services 28.750B, add YTD 91.728B = 123.235711365B. Products are residual of FY2026 group estimate 477.06960000000004B. Derived full-year allocation, not a quoted dollar guide. Full call transcript hosted by Motley Fool; primary companion https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/07/apple-reports-third-quarter-results/. fool.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Products | 36.1% | Rule | linear path to 36.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 (current E2) · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexProducts | 3.1% | Reported | FY2025 cash PP&E purchases 12.715B / 416.161B, exact ratio; exceeds equipment depreciation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthProducts | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Services | $123.2B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 12.9% fool.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Services | $200.2B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 12.9% fool.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Services | 74.7% | Rule | linear path to 74.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 (current E2) · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexServices | 3.1% | Reported | FY2025 cash PP&E purchases 12.715B / 416.161B, exact ratio; exceeds equipment depreciation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthServices | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 11.1% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$51.709B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $466.82300000000004B (2026-06-27, 2026-03-28, 2025-12-27, 2025-09-27), annual base $416.161B SEC XBRL 2026-06-27, 2026-03-28, 2025-12-27, 2025-09-27 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 11.1% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$51.709B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $466.82300000000004B (2026-06-27, 2026-03-28, 2025-12-27, 2025-09-27), annual base $416.161B SEC XBRL 2026-06-27, 2026-03-28, 2025-12-27, 2025-09-27 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.00% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.10% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.05 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 16.5% | Guidance | July 30 CFO outlook gives tax rate approximately 16.5% for the September quarter. Per §4.5 latest company tax guidance has priority; held as the operating-tax proxy beyond that quarter, which is a modeling convention rather than annual or FY2030 guidance. Replaces the old approximate 17%. Three-year cash/provision differences from the Irish State Aid case are not used to override an available guide. Hosted full-call transcript; companion primary Apple Q3 release. fool.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $62.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0000320193-26-000020 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $84.3B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:CommercialPaper + us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000320193-26-000020 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000320193-26-000020 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $1.2B | Rule | Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-09-27 annual report amount of $1.230000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-27). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.0242% of equity market cap ($5081.985360B = price $348.22 × 14.59418B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. sec.gov ↗ |
| SharesBalance sheet | 14.594B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-17 cover page of 10-Q 0000320193-26-000020 |
| Noncurrent marketable securitiesNon-operating assets | $84.1B | Reported | June 27 balance sheet/Note 3 noncurrent marketable securities at fair value. Separate from 39.544B cash and 22.855B current securities already in the bridge; investment income is below operating income. Added once, without a future market-price uplift. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $15.3B | Reported | Trailing four paid quarters through June 2026: FY2025 Q4 0.26 plus FY2026 first-nine-month dividends 0.79, including the May 2026 increase to 0.27. Replaces stale four-times-0.26 annualization; future declared August 0.27 is not mixed into T0 paid dividends. × 14.594B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-09-27 annual report amount of $1.230000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-27). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.0242% of equity market cap ($5081.985360B = price $348.22 × 14.59418B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. Original SEC source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019325000079/aapl-20250927.htm
- share-count comparison: 14.714676B quarter 2026-03-29..2026-06-27 · 0000320193-26-000020; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $51.7B a year (11.1% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.10% (β 1.05 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.0%
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →