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Signal Ledger valuation · V

Visa Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$417.71+0.8% vs $414.34
Business value at FY2030
$952B
FY2030 revenue
$72B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$21.01 · 27×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
7.94% · 8.10%

How this is built. Investor Day provides an illustrative growth/mix framework rather than a dated net-revenue or margin goal; latest annual outlook and FY2027 consensus anchor a net-revenue margin model. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0001403161-26-000104 · price $414.34 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q3 FY2026

Reported Jul 28, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$11.6B
Operating income$6.88B59.1% margin
Net income$5.63B
Diluted EPS$2.97
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Visa payments network (net revenue)$11.6B+14%$6.88B59.1%
  • Latest released quarter as of October 22; subsequent October 27–29 results are not yet reported. Product/category profits left null when not separately disclosed.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Visa payments network (net revenue)Payments networkMargin$72B$795B$422.9920.6× EBIT72%
Noncurrent investment securitiesJune 30 balance sheet noncurrent investment securities 0.150B at fair value; distinct from 1.433B current investments already bridged. Litigation escrow, customer collateral and settlement receivables are not excess cash.Market mark—$0.2B$0.08——
Businesses and holdings$72B$795B$423.07

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$952B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$100B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$1,051B
  4. ÷ (1 + 8.10%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$755B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$18B
  6. + investments held outside the businesses$0.2B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.6%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$795B
  2. − borrowings$24B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$14B
  5. + investments held outside the businesses$0.2B
  6. ÷ diluted shares1.880B
  7. Signal Ledger valuation$417.71

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$45B$28B$1.7B$22B$5.9B
FY2027$51B$32B$1.9B$25B$14B cash
FY2028$57B$37B$2.1B$28B$38B cash
FY2029$64B$42B$2.4B$32B$66B cash
FY2030$72B$48B$2.7B$37B$100B cash

What must be true

  • Payments network grows revenue from $45.2B in FY2026 to $72.1B in FY2030 (1.6×).
  • Visa payments network (net revenue) raises its EBIT margin from 60.0% to 64.0%.
  • The company spends $10.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $10.1B in FY2025 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $414.34 is about $71.5B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 12.2% a year from FY2026) with 64.0% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $72.1B and 64.0% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $414.34 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
0.99×At research margins$71.5B12.2%
64.0% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$108.2B24.4%
43.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$144.2B33.7%
33.3% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$216.4B47.9%
22.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $45.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
8.0%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.9% WACC · 8.1% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
0.99×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $71.5B (model: $72.1B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Payments network

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $71.5B (model: $72.1B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 63.5% (model: 64.0%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
8.10%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.85 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
7.94%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 15 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2026Visa payments network (net revenue)$45.2BRuletarget (methodology §4.2), growth 13.0% stockanalysis.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Visa payments network (net revenue)$72.1BGuidancehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 12.4% stockanalysis.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Visa payments network (net revenue)64.0%Rulelinear path to 64.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexVisa payments network (net revenue)3.7%ReportedFY2025 purchases of property, equipment and technology / net revenue = 3.705%; well below capacity threshold. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthVisa payments network (net revenue)3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates7.94%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates8.10%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.85 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates18.1%GuidanceCFO on the official Q3 FY2026 call, transcript mirror: full-year tax rate 18%-18.25%, midpoint. The SEC release is the companion primary earnings record. stockanalysis.com ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$13.8BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:Investments (classified current by filing calculation linkbase) · 0001403161-26-000104 (filed 2026-07-29)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$23.9BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001403161-26-000104 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001403161-26-000104
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30
Preferred stockBalance sheet$0.0BReportedpreferred shares converted into the economic share denominator; not deducted again sec.gov ↗
SharesBalance sheet1.880BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 sec.gov ↗
Noncurrent investment securitiesNon-operating assets$0.1BReportedJune 30 balance sheet noncurrent investment securities 0.150B at fair value; distinct from 1.433B current investments already bridged. Litigation escrow, customer collateral and settlement receivables are not excess cash. sec.gov ↗
Dividends per yearShareholders$4.9BReportedTrailing four paid quarters through latest reported quarter June 2026: FY2025 Q4 $0.59 plus FY2026 Q1/Q2/Q3 $0.67 each = $2.60. The September 2026 payment announced after quarter-end is excluded. × 1.880B shares sec.gov ↗

Research notes

  • as-converted shares: 1.88B at 2026-06-30; Note 11 point-in-time total shares outstanding on a Class-A as-converted basis at June 30, 2026: 1,880 million, reported to nearest million. Includes Class A, B1/B2/B3 and C common and participating preferred equivalents. Common conversion rates B1 1.5445, B2 1.5014, B3 1.4953 and C 4.0000 differ; this is neither a 1:1 cover-page sum nor EPS weighted-average shares.; preferred shares are included in the denominator, not deducted again
  • cost of equity 8.10% (β 0.85 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.9%

Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →