Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · UNH
UnitedHealth Group Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $550B
- FY2030 net income
- $32B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $35.21 · 17×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.87% · 7.87%
How this is built. No usable dated consolidated long-range target; latest revenue floor, next-year consensus and rule-based profitability recovery form the estimate, with one firm-wide equity model to avoid double-counting insurance capital. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 13, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealthcare | $86.3B | −0.8% | $2.83B | 3.3% |
| Optum Health | $22.9B | −10% | $0.73B | 3.2% |
| Optum Insight | $5.47B | +3% | $1.28B | 23.4% |
| Optum Rx | $39.9B | +0.6% | $1.72B | 4.3% |
- GAAP common-shareholder net earnings were $4.110B ($4.56 diluted EPS); consolidated net earnings before $0.190B of noncontrolling interests were $4.300B.
- Medical care ratio was 88.4%, including $0.610B of favorable reserve development related to 2026 dates of service; operating cash flow was $5.1B.
- Management raised FY2026 guidance to at least $19.50 GAAP EPS and $20.50 adjusted EPS; the GAAP common net-income floor is $17.650B.
- The four operating segments are shown without the Optum subtotal. Consolidated revenue reflects $1.428B of Optum eliminations and $40.519B of corporate eliminations.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group (firm-wide)UnitedHealth Group | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $450B | $501.11 | 4.5× P/B | 54% |
| All businesses | — | $450B | $501.11 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$550B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$550B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$391B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$59B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$450B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.898B
- Signal Ledger valuation$501.11
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $439B | $14B | $0B | $8.4B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $464B | $19B | $0B | $12B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $490B | $25B | $0B | $15B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $518B | $32B | $0B | $19B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $547B | $39B | $0B | $24B | $0B |
What must be true
- UnitedHealth Group grows revenue from $439.0B in FY2026 to $546.8B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- UnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) moves its return on equity from 11.2% to 27.5% by FY2030, against a 7.87% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $424.98 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.8%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.9% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.87%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityUnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) | $98.4B | Reported | Total consolidated equity $104.513B minus noncontrolling interests $6.066B; no preferred shares. Evidence misses parent-equity tag; derive common parent equity $98.447B from the balance sheet. sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2026UnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) | $11.1B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 3.1% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 19% tax) unitedhealthgroup.com ↗ |
| Net income FY2030UnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) | $31.6B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 7.1% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 19% tax) unitedhealthgroup.com ↗ |
| Payout ratioUnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) | 75.5% | Rule | Retain the original annual dividend-rate × latest cover shares plus 5B buyback-budget assumption; correct the 0.8976B share rounding to 0.897594847B. Q3 confirms 5B YTD buybacks and 6.2B YTD dividends, not an obligation to repeat 5B each future year. Divide by at-least-17.65B GAAP common NI guidance. The payout ratio remains an assumption, not a reported distribution forecast. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthUnitedHealth Group (firm-wide) | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 18.5% | Guidance | Latest FY2026 tax-rate guidance ~18.5%, superseding 19.25%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.898B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31 cover page of 10-Q 0000731766-26-000197 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Financial plugin distributes through payoutRatio; standalone dividends must be zero to avoid double counting.: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.906B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000731766-26-000197; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.9%
- UnitedHealth Group (firm-wide): residual income on $98.4B of common equity, earnings = revenue × pre-tax margin, payout 76% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →