Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $153B
- FY2030 revenue
- $83B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $4.11 · 21×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.16% · 9.74%
How this is built. No usable public long-range net revenue/GAAP EBIT target exists; FY2026 net-revenue consensus anchors the line allocation, the written growth-fade and four-point margin rules project standalone operations, and only publicly marked existing stakes are added. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Aug 5, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | $7.36B | +1% | $2.21B | 30.1% |
| Delivery | $5.25B | +28% | $1.05B | 20.1% |
| Freight | $1.58B | +26% | −$24M | -1.5% |
- Segment Operating Income is the company's new 2026 management contribution metric before corporate/other adjustments; these segment amounts are not consolidated GAAP EBIT.
- Revenue +12% reported; business-model changes reduced reported growth by 8pp. Gross Bookings +24% is a different denominator.
- GAAP net income includes a $1.6B pretax investment revaluation benefit; no conversion into operating margin. Q3 has not been released.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | Margin | $31B | $86B | $42.33 | 12.1× EBIT | 58% |
| Delivery | Margin | $46B | $140B | $68.54 | 16.5× EBIT | 67% |
| Freight | Margin | $6.4B | $1B | $0.49 | 11.7× EBIT | 77% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$101B | −$49.39 | — | 63% |
| Grab listed equity stakeJune 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. | Market mark | — | $2B | $0.99 | — | — |
| Aurora listed equity stakeJune 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. | Market mark | — | $1.8B | $0.86 | — | — |
| Other marketable equity securitiesJune 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. | Market mark | — | $0.8B | $0.40 | — | — |
| Delivery Hero existing equity stakeJune 30, 2026 disclosed fair value of held equity, outside cash/ST-investment bridge and all operating lines; no growth applied. Delivery Hero is the existing 24.99% equity stake at $3.1B market value, not its $3.502B carrying value or the proposed whole-company purchase. | Market mark | — | $3.1B | $1.52 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $83B | $134B | $65.73 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$153B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$21B
- Equity value at FY2030$174B
- ÷ (1 + 9.74%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$115B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
- + investments held outside the businesses$7.7B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 3.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$127B
- − borrowings$13B
- − finance leases$0.2B
- − preferred and minority claims$0.2B
- + cash and short-term investments$5.4B
- + investments held outside the businesses$7.7B
- ÷ diluted shares2.043B
- Signal Ledger valuation$61.95
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $59B | $7.1B | $1.2B | $4.6B | $5.6B |
| FY2027 | $65B | $8.2B | $1.3B | $5.3B | $0.4B |
| FY2028 | $71B | $9.4B | $1.4B | $6.1B | $5.7B cash |
| FY2029 | $77B | $11B | $1.5B | $7B | $13B cash |
| FY2030 | $83B | $12B | $1.7B | $8B | $21B cash |
What must be true
- Mobility holds revenue roughly flat, from $30.0B in FY2026 to $31.2B in FY2030.
- Delivery grows revenue from $22.6B in FY2026 to $45.8B in FY2030 (2.0×).
- Freight holds revenue roughly flat, from $6.4B in FY2026 to $6.4B in FY2030.
- Mobility holds its EBIT margin at 25.2%.
- Delivery raises its EBIT margin from 19.3% to 23.3%.
- Freight raises its EBIT margin from -2.0% to 2.0%.
- The company spends $7.1B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $7.7B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $69.07 at our discount rate, Uber Technologies, Inc would need about $93.8B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 12.3% a year from FY2026) with 22.4% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $83.4B and 22.4% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $69.07 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12×At research margins | $93.8B | 12.3% | 22.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $125.1B | 20.7% | 19.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $166.8B | 29.7% | 17.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $250.2B | 43.5% | 14.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $58.9B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.5%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.12×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.2% WACC · 9.7% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $93.8B (model: $83.4B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Delivery
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $54.2B (model: $45.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 25.8% (model: 23.3%).
Mobility
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $40.2B (model: $31.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 29.5% (model: 25.2%).
Freight
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.74%
- WACC
- 9.16%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 30 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Mobility | $30.0B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.0% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Mobility | $31.2B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.0% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Mobility | 25.2% | Rule | linear path to 25.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 1.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexMobility | 2.0% | Rule | No segment maintenance capex/committed AV capital guide; rule 9 2% fallback, equal to depreciation. Future minority investments are separate and not assumed free. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthMobility | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Delivery | $22.6B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 30.8% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Delivery | $45.8B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 14.4% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Delivery | 23.3% | Rule | linear path to 23.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 21.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexDelivery | 2.0% | Rule | No segment maintenance capex/committed AV capital guide; rule 9 2% fallback, equal to depreciation. Future minority investments are separate and not assumed free. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthDelivery | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Freight | $6.4B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 25.5% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Freight | $6.4B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 0.0% sec.gov ↗ · chartmill.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Freight | 2.0% | Rule | linear path to 2.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexFreight | 2.0% | Rule | No segment maintenance capex/committed AV capital guide; rule 9 2% fallback, equal to depreciation. Future minority investments are separate and not assumed free. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthFreight | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 9.9% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Full-year bridge across mixed profit definitions: reported total segment adjusted EBITDA $11.438B minus allocated D&A $0.719B minus consolidated GAAP EBIT $5.565B = $5.154B, or 9.908% of FY2025 sales. Includes corporate R&D/G&A, ALL SBC and other excluded costs. TTM series mixes old adjusted EBITDA and new segment operating income, so retain the last fully reconciled annual cost share rather than invent a TTM sum.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 9.9% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Full-year bridge across mixed profit definitions: reported total segment adjusted EBITDA $11.438B minus allocated D&A $0.719B minus consolidated GAAP EBIT $5.565B = $5.154B, or 9.908% of FY2025 sales. Includes corporate R&D/G&A, ALL SBC and other excluded costs. TTM series mixes old adjusted EBITDA and new segment operating income, so retain the last fully reconciled annual cost share rather than invent a TTM sum.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.16% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.74% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 23.0% | Guidance | FY2026 normalized effective rate 22-24% midpoint. Do not perpetuate unusually low temporary cash taxes (guided 10-15% over coming years). investor.uber.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $5.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0001543151-26-000032 (filed 2026-08-05) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $12.7B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings · 0001543151-26-000032 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001543151-26-000032 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.2B | Rule | Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-12-31 annual report amount of $0.222000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-30). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.1574% of equity market cap ($141.079628B = price $69.07 × 2.042560121B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. sec.gov ↗ |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $0.2B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0001543151-26-000032 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 2.043B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31 cover page of 10-Q 0001543151-26-000032 |
| Grab listed equity stakeNon-operating assets | $2.0B | Reported | June 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. sec.gov ↗ |
| Aurora listed equity stakeNon-operating assets | $1.8B | Reported | June 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. sec.gov ↗ |
| Other marketable equity securitiesNon-operating assets | $0.8B | Reported | June 30, 2026 disclosed publicly marked marketable equity value; not cash, restricted insurance investments or segment operating earnings. Aurora collateral remains an asset; associated exchangeable debt is separately deducted by code. sec.gov ↗ |
| Delivery Hero existing equity stakeNon-operating assets | $3.1B | Reported | June 30, 2026 disclosed fair value of held equity, outside cash/ST-investment bridge and all operating lines; no growth applied. Delivery Hero is the existing 24.99% equity stake at $3.1B market value, not its $3.502B carrying value or the proposed whole-company purchase. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | No common cash dividend; no future buyback benefit. × 2.043B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-12-31 annual report amount of $0.222000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-30). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.1574% of equity market cap ($141.079628B = price $69.07 × 2.042560121B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. Original SEC source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1543151/000154315126000015/uber-20251231.htm
- share-count comparison: 2.050225B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001543151-26-000032; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $5.2B a year (9.9% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.74% (β 1.17 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.2%
- Mobility: FY2030 margin set to 25.2% instead of 29.2% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 1.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →