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Signal Ledger valuation · TMO

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 27, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$549.55−19% vs $676.54
Business value at FY2030
$280B
FY2030 revenue
$63B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$37.79 · 20×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
7.71% · 8.47%

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0000097745-26-000144 · price $676.54 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026

Reported Oct 21, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 26, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$12.1B
Operating income$2.26B18.6% margin
Net income$1.72B
Diluted EPS$4.64
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Life Sciences Solutions$2.72B+5%$1.02B37.6%
Analytical Instruments$2.00B+6%$0.54B26.9%
Specialty Diagnostics$1.10B−6%$0.34B31.1%
Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services$6.86B+15%$1.07B15.5%
  • Revenue 12.137B (+9.1% reported,6% organic), GAAP operating profit 2.263B, parent net income 1.721B and dilutedEPS4.64. Consolidated net income beforeNCI is 1.727B; adjustedEPS6.68 is not GAAP.
  • Segment profits are the reported adjusted segment-income metric:2.968B total less.009B cost-of-revenue adjustments +.020B SG&A adjustments -.199B restructuring -.519B amortization =2.261B (2M table rounding versus 2.263B GAAP). Gross segment sales 12.682B less.546B internal sales=12.136B (1M rounding).
  • Microbiology divestiture completed duringQ3; SpecialtyDiagnostics reported sales fell 6.47%, while LaboratoryProducts/BiopharmaServices grew 14.96%.
  • October 21 call updatesFY2026 revenue 47.7-48.2B (midpoint 47.95B), adjustedEPS25.13-25.43, netcapex 1.9-2.0B and tax 11.5%. Call figures are from the full speaker transcript (third-party host); release itself does not contain them. September 26 cash plus short-term investments 6.061B and combineddebt 41.370B are disclosed, but period-endshares and completelease details are not; retain June 27 SEC balances.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Life Sciences SolutionsMargin$15B$101B$273.4719.0× EBIT67%
Analytical InstrumentsMargin$11B$45B$120.5818.0× EBIT67%
Specialty DiagnosticsMargin$6.5B$32B$86.9118.8× EBIT68%
Laboratory Products and Biopharma ServicesMargin$33B$80B$217.5415.6× EBIT66%
Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative businessCost line—−$16B−$44.52—70%
All businesses$63B$242B$653.98

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$280B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$4.4B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$284B
  4. ÷ (1 + 8.47%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$197B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$2.6B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.8%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$242B
  2. − borrowings$42B
  3. − finance leases$0.3B
  4. − preferred and minority claims$0.1B
  5. + cash and short-term investments$4.1B
  6. ÷ diluted shares0.370B
  7. Signal Ledger valuation$549.55

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$48B$11B$1.8B$8.3B$35B
FY2027$51B$13B$1.9B$9.4B$28B
FY2028$55B$14B$2B$11B$19B
FY2029$59B$16B$2.1B$12B$8.2B
FY2030$63B$18B$2.3B$13B$4.4B cash

What must be true

  • Life Sciences Solutions grows revenue from $10.9B in FY2026 to $15.3B in FY2030 (1.4×).
  • Analytical Instruments grows revenue from $8.0B in FY2026 to $10.6B in FY2030 (1.3×).
  • Specialty Diagnostics grows revenue from $4.4B in FY2026 to $6.5B in FY2030 (1.5×).
  • Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services grows revenue from $26.9B in FY2026 to $33.0B in FY2030 (1.2×).
  • Life Sciences Solutions raises its EBIT margin from 36.3% to 40.3%.
  • Analytical Instruments raises its EBIT margin from 23.0% to 27.0%.
  • Specialty Diagnostics raises its EBIT margin from 26.9% to 30.9%.
  • Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services raises its EBIT margin from 14.0% to 18.0%.
  • The company spends $10.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $38.6B in FY2025 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $676.54 at our discount rate, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. would need about $79.2B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 12.1% a year from FY2026) with 25.9% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $65.4B and 25.9% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $676.54 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.21×At research margins$79.2B12.1%
25.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$98.2B18.3%
21.7% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$130.9B27.1%
17.2% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$196.3B40.7%
12.5% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $50.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
6.8%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.7% WACC · 8.5% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
1.21×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $79.2B (model: $65.4B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Life Sciences Solutions

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $22.9B (model: $15.3B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 59.0% (model: 40.3%).

Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $54.9B (model: $33B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 27.1% (model: 18.0%).

Analytical Instruments

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $22.7B (model: $10.6B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 54.7% (model: 27.0%).

Specialty Diagnostics

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $16.7B (model: $6.5B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 74.1% (model: 30.9%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
8.47%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.92 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.17 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
7.71%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 58 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2026Life Sciences Solutions$10.9BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 5.1% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Life Sciences Solutions$15.3BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 8.9% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Life Sciences Solutions40.3%Rulelinear path to 40.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexLife Sciences Solutions2.4%RuleFY2025 segment cash PP&E spend 0.152B plus pro-rata allocation of.116B unallocated PP&E spend by reported gross revenue, divided by line revenue. Total cash capital spending remains 1.525B; acquisitions excluded; finance-lease additions.021B separately disclosed and noted. All spend conservatively retained as reinvestment. Also allocate reportedFY2025 finance-lease additions.021B by gross revenue, preserving total economic capex 1.546B. Historical cash/lease additions are below PPE depreciation for this line; the methodology 3.1 maintenance floor raises forecast reinvestment to the sourced PPE depreciation ratio 0.02419510314247156. This is a conservative forecast assumption, not reported spending or a company capex guide; other lines retain their full allocations. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthLife Sciences Solutions2.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Analytical Instruments$8.0BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Analytical Instruments$10.6BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Analytical Instruments27.0%Rulelinear path to 27.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexAnalytical Instruments1.9%RuleFY2025 segment cash PP&E spend 0.124B plus pro-rata allocation of.116B unallocated PP&E spend by reported gross revenue, divided by line revenue. Total cash capital spending remains 1.525B; acquisitions excluded; finance-lease additions.021B separately disclosed and noted. All spend conservatively retained as reinvestment. Also allocate reportedFY2025 finance-lease additions.021B by gross revenue, preserving total economic capex 1.546B. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthAnalytical Instruments2.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Specialty Diagnostics$4.4BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth -6.5% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Specialty Diagnostics$6.5BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 10.5% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Specialty Diagnostics30.9%Rulelinear path to 30.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 6.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexSpecialty Diagnostics3.0%RuleFY2025 segment cash PP&E spend 0.128B plus pro-rata allocation of.116B unallocated PP&E spend by reported gross revenue, divided by line revenue. Total cash capital spending remains 1.525B; acquisitions excluded; finance-lease additions.021B separately disclosed and noted. All spend conservatively retained as reinvestment. Also allocate reportedFY2025 finance-lease additions.021B by gross revenue, preserving total economic capex 1.546B. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthSpecialty Diagnostics2.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services$26.9BRuletarget (methodology §4.2), growth 12.1% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services$33.0BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 5.3% ir.thermofisher.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services18.0%Rulelinear path to 18.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 6.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexLaboratory Products and Biopharma Services4.5%RuleFY2025 segment cash PP&E spend 1.005B plus pro-rata allocation of.116B unallocated PP&E spend by reported gross revenue, divided by line revenue. Total cash capital spending remains 1.525B; acquisitions excluded; finance-lease additions.021B separately disclosed and noted. All spend conservatively retained as reinvestment. Also allocate reportedFY2025 finance-lease additions.021B by gross revenue, preserving total economic capex 1.546B. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthLaboratory Products and Biopharma Services2.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Share of revenue FY2026Company costs1.4%RuleAnnual cost baseline $0.633B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗
Share of revenue FY2034Company costs1.4%RuleAnnual cost baseline $0.633B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗
WACCDiscount rates7.71%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates8.47%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.92 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.17 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates11.5%GuidanceOctober 21 CFO call reaffirms adjusted income-tax assumption 11.5%. Same prior cash-profit proxy because modeled segment income and cash company-cost reconciliation already exclude acquired amortization; this is not asserted to be GAAP tax guidance. GAAP charges remain conservatively expensed. earningsapi.io ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2026Consolidation$2.2BRuleFY2026 forecast gross segment sales times the unchanged historical internal-sales percentage. ActualQ3 elimination.546B is disclosed, not an independent profit deduction. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2027Consolidation$2.3BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2028Consolidation$2.5BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2029Consolidation$2.7BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2030Consolidation$2.9BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2031Consolidation$3.0BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2032Consolidation$3.2BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2033Consolidation$3.3BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Revenue eliminated FY2034Consolidation$3.3BRuleFY2025 intersegment sales 2.033B / reported gross segment sales 46.588B (published total 46.589B differs 1M by rounding), held as a share of gross sales in each projected year. Eliminate revenue only; segment profit definition already eliminates intersegment profit. Original FY2025 consolidated revenue 44.556B. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2026Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2027Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2028Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2029Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2030Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2031Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2032Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2033Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
Profit eliminated FY2034Consolidation$0.0BReportedIntersegment and intrasegment profit is already eliminated in reported segment income; no duplicate profit elimination. sec.gov ↗
fiscalYearHistorical accounting reconciliationFY2025ReportedFY2025 Note 4 same-period segment reconciliation. sec.gov ↗
grossRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation$46.6BReportedReported segment total including intersegment sales; individual displayed segment sums differ 1M by rounding. sec.gov ↗
revenueEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation$2.0BReportedReported intersegment revenue elimination. sec.gov ↗
consolidatedRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation$44.6BReported46.589-2.033=44.556B. sec.gov ↗
segmentProfitBHistorical accounting reconciliation$10.1BReportedReported total segment income;1M sum-of-displayed-lines rounding. sec.gov ↗
profitEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation$0.0BReportedIntersegment profit already removed inside segment income. sec.gov ↗
corporateCostsBHistorical accounting reconciliation$2.4BReportedFull GAAP operating bridge 2.363B plus.012B other nonoperating expense; the cash model removes acquired amortization 1.730B and does not forecast treasury income. sec.gov ↗
operatingInterestBHistorical accounting reconciliation$0.4BReportedHistorical net financing cost 1.419B gross interest minus.993B treasury interest; only an accounting reconciliation, not a second cash-income stream. sec.gov ↗
consolidatedPretaxBHistorical accounting reconciliation$7.3BReported10.109-2.375-.426=7.308B reported pretax income. Net operating EBIT7.746B excludes the.012B other expense. sec.gov ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$4.1BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗
BorrowingsBalance sheet$42.3BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; finance leases already included in combined debt tags removed and deducted separately us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000097745-26-000144 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 0000097745-26-000144
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.3BReportedfinance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0000097745-26-000144 (filed 2026-07-31)
Minority interestsBalance sheet$0.1BReportednoncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000097745-26-000144 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0000097745-26-000144
SharesBalance sheet0.370BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-06-27 cover page of 10-Q 0000097745-26-000144
Dividends per yearShareholders$0.7BReportedLast four cash dividends paid by cutoffOctober 20,2026: January 15 .43, April 15 .47, July 15 .47 and October 15 .47 =1.84. The 2026 increase was to.47, not.48; forward annualized 1.88 is not used. × 0.370B shares ir.thermofisher.com ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.371B quarter 2026-03-29..2026-06-27 · 0000097745-26-000144; point-in-time denominator retained
  • unallocated company costs: $0.6B a year (1.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
  • cost of equity 8.47% (β 0.92 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.17 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 7.7%
  • §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.170, net debt/EBITDA 3.66, β_lev 0.920, β 0.920 → 0.920; D $42.55B, E $250.15B, cash $4.06B, base EBITDA $10.53B

Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →