Signal Ledger valuation · SBUX
Starbucks Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 28, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $65B
- FY2030 revenue
- $44B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $3.74 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.18% · 8.80%
How this is built. Management gives a FY2028 growth/margin framework rather than an absolute sales target; research allocations bridge the China deconsolidation, FY2027 consensus $38.55B and the FY2028 5% growth floor. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 FY2026
Reported Jul 29, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 28, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $7.40B | +7% | $1.01B | 13.6% |
| International | $1.32B | −34% | $0.25B | 19.1% |
| Channel Development | $0.59B | +22% | $0.31B | 52.1% |
| Corporate and Other | $17M | — | −$0.59B | -3435.7% |
- Global comparable sales +7.9%; non-GAAP operating margin 14.4%.
- China retail converted to a licensed JV; Starbucks retains 40%.
- FY2026 net revenues flat to slight growth; non-GAAP EPS $2.55-$2.65.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Margin | $34B | $61B | $53.59 | 11.7× EBIT | 65% |
| International | Margin | $6.9B | $13B | $11.19 | 11.7× EBIT | 65% |
| Channel Development | Margin | $2.7B | $16B | $14.10 | 12.6× EBIT | 63% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$33B | −$28.53 | — | 67% |
| All businesses | $44B | $57B | $50.35 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$65B
- Less net debt at FY2030$10B
- Equity value at FY2030$55B
- ÷ (1 + 8.80%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$39B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$10B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.9%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$57B
- − borrowings$13B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$3.6B
- ÷ diluted shares1.140B
- Signal Ledger valuation$41.86
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $37B | $4.9B | $2.3B | $1.7B | $10B |
| FY2027 | $39B | $5.6B | $2.4B | $2.2B | $11B |
| FY2028 | $40B | $6.5B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $11B |
| FY2029 | $42B | $7.4B | $2.6B | $3.3B | $11B |
| FY2030 | $44B | $8.3B | $2.7B | $3.9B | $10B |
What must be true
- North America grows revenue from $29.2B in FY2026 to $34.3B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- International grows revenue from $5.9B in FY2026 to $6.9B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Channel Development grows revenue from $2.3B in FY2026 to $2.7B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- North America raises its EBIT margin from 11.5% to 17.5%.
- International raises its EBIT margin from 12.1% to 18.1%.
- Channel Development raises its EBIT margin from 47.3% to 53.2%.
- The company spends $12.6B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $11.3B in FY2028 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $101.91 at our discount rate, Starbucks Corp would need about $99.9B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 27.9% a year from FY2026) with 19.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $43.8B and 19.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $101.91 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $65.8B | 15.2% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.00× | $87.7B | 23.8% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.28×At research margins | $99.9B | 27.9% | 19.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $131.5B | 37.0% | 17.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $37.4B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- —
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 2.28×
No discount rate in the search range makes this model equal the price. Model: 8.2% WACC · 8.8% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $99.9B (model: $43.8B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
North America
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $100.5B (model: $34.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 34.9% (model: 17.5%).
Channel Development
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $15.8B (model: $2.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 271.6% (model: 53.2%).
International
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 104.6% (model: 18.1%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.80%
- WACC
- 8.18%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 26 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026North America | $29.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.8% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030North America | $34.3B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.1% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030North America | 17.5% | Guidance | linear path to 17.5% by FY2030 (management target) investor.starbucks.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexNorth America | 6.2% | Reported | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthNorth America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026International | $5.9B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth -25.1% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030International | $6.9B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.1% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030International | 18.1% | Guidance | linear path to 18.1% by FY2030 (management target) investor.starbucks.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexInternational | 6.2% | Reported | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthInternational | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Channel Development | $2.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 21.5% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Channel Development | $2.7B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.1% investor.starbucks.com ↗ · stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Channel Development | 53.2% | Guidance | linear path to 53.2% by FY2030 (management target) investor.starbucks.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexChannel Development | 6.2% | Reported | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthChannel Development | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 5.5% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $2.055B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 5.5% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $2.055B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.18% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.80% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 26.7% | Reported | No guided tax rate found: three-year mean cash-tax/pretax-income, FY2025 .7156/2.5073, FY2024 1.3733/4.9696, FY2023 1.2942/5.4019. Do not substitute Q3 non-GAAP ETR for the methodology default. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $3.6B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; current-asset cash row excludes noncurrent restricted cash before extraction; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $13.3B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000829224-26-000130 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000829224-26-000130 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-28 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $7.2M | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000829224-26-000130 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.140B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-23 cover page of 10-Q 0000829224-26-000130 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $2.8B | Reported | FY2025 Q4 $0.62 plus FY2026 first three quarters $1.86. × 1.140B shares investor.starbucks.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.1438B quarter 2026-03-30..2026-06-28 · 0000829224-26-000130; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $2.1B a year (5.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 8.80% (β 0.99 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.2%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →