Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · PG
Procter & Gamble Co
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $397B
- FY2030 revenue
- $101B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.08 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.33% · 7.87%
How this is built. No verified dated FY2030 absolute revenue or EBIT-margin target; latest FY2027 guidance and category trends are extrapolated under the standard rules. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q1 FY2027
Reported Oct 22, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauty | $4.41B | +6% | $1.14B | 25.8% |
| Grooming | $1.89B | +4% | $0.62B | 32.8% |
| Health Care | $3.32B | +3% | $1.01B | 30.4% |
| Fabric & Home Care | $8.20B | +4% | $2.08B | 25.4% |
| Baby, Feminine & Family Care | $5.32B | +3% | $1.39B | 26.1% |
| Corporate | $0.13B | — | −$0.30B | -228.8% |
- Reported sales and organic sales each rose 4%; diluted EPS $1.97 and core EPS $2.00.
- Quarter segment EBIT is calculated as 10-Q segment sales less COGS and SG&A; excludes Other segment items, which include interest and nonoperating income. Rounded segment values may differ from consolidated totals by $1-$2M.
- FY2027 all-in sales guide raised to +2%-4% including Thorne; core EPS $6.89-$7.11 and capital spending 4.5%-5.5% of sales maintained.
- Habitat Care moved from Corporate to Fabric & Home Care; comparative quarter segment amounts were recast.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauty | Margin | $20B | $72B | $31.04 | 15.4× EBIT | 70% |
| Grooming | Margin | $8.1B | $39B | $16.65 | 16.2× EBIT | 69% |
| Health Care | Margin | $14B | $51B | $22.01 | 14.9× EBIT | 73% |
| Fabric & Home Care | Margin | $36B | $133B | $57.51 | 14.7× EBIT | 69% |
| Baby, Feminine & Family Care | Margin | $23B | $89B | $38.50 | 15.2× EBIT | 68% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$27B | −$11.58 | — | 73% |
| All businesses | $101B | $357B | $154.13 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$397B
- Less net debt at FY2030$2.8B
- Equity value at FY2030$395B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^3.8 years at the cost of equity$297B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$32B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.9%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$357B
- − borrowings$39B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$1B
- + cash and short-term investments$15B
- ÷ diluted shares2.318B
- Signal Ledger valuation$143.54
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $90B | $23B | $4.5B | $11B | $25B |
| FY2028 | $93B | $25B | $4.7B | $16B | $20B |
| FY2029 | $97B | $28B | $4.9B | $18B | $12B |
| FY2030 | $101B | $30B | $5.1B | $19B | $2.8B |
What must be true
- Beauty grows revenue from $17.0B in FY2027 to $20.4B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Grooming grows revenue from $7.2B in FY2027 to $8.1B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Health Care grows revenue from $12.8B in FY2027 to $14.1B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Fabric & Home Care grows revenue from $31.6B in FY2027 to $35.7B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Baby, Feminine & Family Care grows revenue from $21.0B in FY2027 to $22.9B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Beauty raises its EBIT margin from 21.7% to 25.7%.
- Grooming raises its EBIT margin from 28.4% to 32.4%.
- Health Care raises its EBIT margin from 25.4% to 28.6%.
- Fabric & Home Care raises its EBIT margin from 24.0% to 28.0%.
- Baby, Feminine & Family Care raises its EBIT margin from 25.2% to 28.0%.
- The company spends $19.1B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $25.2B in FY2027 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $165.59 at our discount rate, Procter & Gamble Co would need about $116.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 7.9% a year from FY2026) with 28.0% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $101.2B and 28.0% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $165.59 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.15×At research margins | $116.6B | 7.9% | 28.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $151.8B | 15.2% | 22.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $202.4B | 23.8% | 18.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $303.6B | 37.0% | 13.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $86.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 6.7%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.15×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.3% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $116.6B (model: $101.2B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Fabric & Home Care
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $50.9B (model: $35.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 37.6% (model: 28.0%).
Baby, Feminine & Family Care
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $37.4B (model: $22.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 43.4% (model: 28.0%).
Beauty
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $36.6B (model: $20.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 41.7% (model: 25.7%).
Health Care
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $28.6B (model: $14.1B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 53.5% (model: 28.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.33%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 46 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027Beauty | $17.0B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 6.3% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Beauty | $20.4B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 6.3% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Beauty | 25.7% | Rule | linear path to 25.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 6.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBeauty | 5.0% | Guidance | October 22 FY2027 capital-spending guide remains 4.5%-5.5% of sales, midpoint 5%, allocated by sales. Future flat intensity is an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBeauty | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Grooming | $7.2B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Grooming | $8.1B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Grooming | 32.4% | Rule | linear path to 32.4% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexGrooming | 5.0% | Guidance | October 22 FY2027 capital-spending guide remains 4.5%-5.5% of sales, midpoint 5%, allocated by sales. Future flat intensity is an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthGrooming | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Health Care | $12.8B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.1% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Health Care | $14.1B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.1% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Health Care | 28.6% | Rule | linear path to 28.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 3.2000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexHealth Care | 5.0% | Guidance | October 22 FY2027 capital-spending guide remains 4.5%-5.5% of sales, midpoint 5%, allocated by sales. Future flat intensity is an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2027Health Care | $3.9B | Reported | FY2027: Note 8 reports the completed October 1, 2026 acquisition for $3.9B in an all-cash transaction. Thorne joins Personal Health Care; this purchase cash is outside operating EBIT and recurring PP&E. FY2027 company all-in sales guidance already includes Thorne; acquired brand and goodwill are valued through the operating earnings path, with no separate NAV asset. The existing company-guidance residual allocation to Beauty is retained as an assumption, not Thorne segment guidance. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2028Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2028: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2029Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2029: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2030Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2030: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2031Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2031: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2032Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2032: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2033Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2033: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 (outflow) FY2034Health Care | $0.0B | Rule | FY2034: zero only for this specifically named $3.9B acquisition, completed and paid in FY2027; not an assumption of zero future acquisitions or other investing cash. No repeat acquisition payment or terminal deduction. sec.gov ↗ |
| Thorne acquisition completed October 1, 2026 already paid/received in FY1Health Care | $0.0B | Reported | As of T0 September 30, 2026, Thorne had not closed; Note 8 dates the all-cash completion October 1, and the three-month cash-flow statement reports zero acquisitions net of cash acquired. Therefore none of this $3.9B payment is in FY2027 YTD cash. September 30 cash and debt are retained unchanged; the full remaining $3.9B is deducted once without time proration. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthHealth Care | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Fabric & Home Care | $31.6B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.2% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Fabric & Home Care | $35.7B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.2% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Fabric & Home Care | 28.0% | Rule | linear path to 28.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexFabric & Home Care | 5.0% | Guidance | October 22 FY2027 capital-spending guide remains 4.5%-5.5% of sales, midpoint 5%, allocated by sales. Future flat intensity is an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthFabric & Home Care | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Baby, Feminine & Family Care | $21.0B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 2.9% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Baby, Feminine & Family Care | $22.9B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 2.9% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Baby, Feminine & Family Care | 28.0% | Rule | linear path to 28.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 2.8000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBaby, Feminine & Family Care | 5.0% | Guidance | October 22 FY2027 capital-spending guide remains 4.5%-5.5% of sales, midpoint 5%, allocated by sales. Future flat intensity is an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBaby, Feminine & Family Care | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 1.5% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Segment operating EBIT sum less consolidated $19.748B operating income / $86.112B modeled segment sales. Net corporate operating costs include restructuring and D&A; excludes corporate $0.623B nonoperating income, including Glad gain.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 1.5% | Rule | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Segment operating EBIT sum less consolidated $19.748B operating income / $86.112B modeled segment sales. Net corporate operating costs include restructuring and D&A; excludes corporate $0.623B nonoperating income, including Glad gain.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.33% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 20.5% | Guidance | FY2027 core effective-tax-rate guidance 20%-21%, midpoint 20.5%; forward non-GAAP effective tax, not a reported cash-tax rate. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $15.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; current-asset cash row excludes noncurrent restricted cash before extraction sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $38.9B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000080424-26-000256 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000080424-26-000256 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| Preferred stockBalance sheet | $0.7B | Reported | preferred stock at carrying value (no liquidation preference tagged) us-gaap:PreferredStockValue · 0000080424-26-000256 (filed 2026-10-22) |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $0.2B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000080424-26-000256 (filed 2026-10-22) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 2.318B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000080424-26-000256 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $9.9B | Reported | Trailing four paid quarters: FY2026 dividends $4.2589 + Q1 FY2027 $1.0885 - Q1 FY2026 $1.0568 = $4.2906; excludes future declared dividends. × 2.318B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 2.4072B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0000080424-26-000256; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $1.3B a year (1.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.3%
- Health Care: FY2030 margin set to 28.6% instead of 29.4% (§4.3 E2: 3.2000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Baby, Feminine & Family Care: FY2030 margin set to 28.0% instead of 29.2% (§4.3 E2: 2.8000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →