Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · NKE
NIKE, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Aug 31, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $33B
- FY2030 revenue
- $45B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $1.88 · 12×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.37% · 9.17%
How this is built. No current public revenue or EBIT target through FY2030: use FY2027 management outlook and FY2028 S&P Global revenue consensus, allocated explicitly across reported geographies. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q1 FY2027
Reported Oct 1, 2026 for the quarter to Aug 31, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $5.13B | +2% | $1.17B | 22.8% |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa | $3.18B | −5% | $0.73B | 22.9% |
| Greater China | $1.18B | −22% | $0.25B | 21.0% |
| Asia Pacific & Latin America | $1.46B | −2% | $0.32B | 22.1% |
| Converse | $0.26B | −28% | $25M | 9.5% |
| Global Brand Divisions | $6M | — | −$1.11B | -18500.0% |
| Corporate | −$2M | — | −$0.48B | 23900.0% |
- Revenue down 4%; NIKE Direct down 8%.
- Gross margin 42.8%; FY2027 revenue expected to decline high single digits.
- Operating income $0.888B = gross profit $4.798B less SG&A $3.910B; reported non-GAAP EBIT $0.907B also includes $0.019B other income.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Margin | $20B | $59B | $39.76 | 12.0× EBIT | 62% |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa | Margin | $13B | $27B | $18.11 | 12.0× EBIT | 62% |
| Greater China | Margin | $4.8B | $12B | $7.87 | 12.0× EBIT | 62% |
| Asia Pacific & Latin America | Margin | $6.5B | $16B | $10.73 | 12.0× EBIT | 62% |
| Converse | Margin | $0.9B | $0.1B | $0.10 | 12.0× EBIT | 65% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$82B | −$55.27 | — | 66% |
| All businesses | $45B | $32B | $21.29 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$33B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0.3B
- Equity value at FY2030$33B
- ÷ (1 + 9.17%)^3.8 years at the cost of equity$24B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$7.8B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.2%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$32B
- − borrowings$7.9B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$8.4B
- ÷ diluted shares1.485B
- Signal Ledger valuation$21.61
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $43B | $2.8B | $0.7B | $1.6B | $0.1B |
| FY2028 | $43B | $3.4B | $0.7B | $2B | $0.6B |
| FY2029 | $44B | $3.9B | $0.7B | $2.4B | $0.7B |
| FY2030 | $45B | $4.5B | $0.7B | $2.8B | $0.3B |
What must be true
- North America grows revenue from $19.2B in FY2027 to $20.3B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Europe, Middle East & Africa grows revenue from $11.9B in FY2027 to $12.6B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Greater China grows revenue from $4.6B in FY2027 to $4.8B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Asia Pacific & Latin America grows revenue from $6.1B in FY2027 to $6.5B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Converse grows revenue from $0.8B in FY2027 to $0.9B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- North America raises its EBIT margin from 22.5% to 26.2%.
- Europe, Middle East & Africa raises its EBIT margin from 16.3% to 19.2%.
- Greater China raises its EBIT margin from 18.6% to 21.9%.
- Asia Pacific & Latin America raises its EBIT margin from 18.9% to 22.2%.
- Converse raises its EBIT margin from 0.8% to 1.5%.
- The company spends $2.8B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $0.7B in FY2029 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $38.32 at our discount rate, NIKE, Inc. would need about $84.2B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 16.1% a year from FY2026) with 22.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $45.1B and 22.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $38.32 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $67.6B | 9.9% | 24.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.87×At research margins | $84.2B | 16.1% | 22.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $90.2B | 18.1% | 22.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $135.2B | 30.7% | 20.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $46.3B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- —
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.87×
No discount rate in the search range makes this model equal the price. Model: 8.4% WACC · 9.2% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $84.2B (model: $45.1B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
North America
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $44B (model: $20.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 37.2% (model: 26.2%).
Europe, Middle East & Africa
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 37.0% (model: 19.2%).
Asia Pacific & Latin America
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 56.8% (model: 22.2%).
Greater China
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 68.3% (model: 21.9%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.17%
- WACC
- 8.37%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.06 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 35 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027North America | $19.2B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth -6.3% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030North America | $20.3B | Consensus | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030North America | 26.2% | Rule | linear path to 26.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -0.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexNorth America | 1.6% | Rule | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthNorth America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Europe, Middle East & Africa | $11.9B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -5.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Europe, Middle East & Africa | $12.6B | Consensus | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Europe, Middle East & Africa | 19.2% | Rule | linear path to 19.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEurope, Middle East & Africa | 1.6% | Rule | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthEurope, Middle East & Africa | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Greater China | $4.6B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -22.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Greater China | $4.8B | Consensus | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Greater China | 21.9% | Rule | linear path to 21.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -4.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexGreater China | 1.6% | Rule | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthGreater China | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Asia Pacific & Latin America | $6.1B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -2.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Asia Pacific & Latin America | $6.5B | Consensus | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Asia Pacific & Latin America | 22.2% | Rule | linear path to 22.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAsia Pacific & Latin America | 1.6% | Rule | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthAsia Pacific & Latin America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Converse | $0.8B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -28.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Converse | $0.9B | Consensus | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Converse | 1.5% | Rule | linear path to 1.5% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -6.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexConverse | 1.6% | Rule | Annual cash capital expenditure / revenue, allocated by revenue; floor at depreciation under methodology 3.1. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthConverse | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 14.4% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $6.679B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 14.4% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $6.679B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.37% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.17% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.06 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 25.0% | Guidance | Latest management effective-tax-rate outlook, midpoint where a range. investors.nike.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $8.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:DebtSecuritiesAvailableForSaleExcludingAccruedInterestCurrent · 0000320187-26-000193 (filed 2026-10-02) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $7.9B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000320187-26-000193 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000320187-26-000193 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-08-31 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.485B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-28 cover page of 10-Q 0000320187-26-000193 (2 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $2.4B | Reported | Latest four quarterly dividends: $0.41 each. × 1.485B shares investors.nike.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.4842B quarter 2026-06-01..2026-08-31 · 0000320187-26-000193; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $6.7B a year (14.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.17% (β 1.06 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.4%
- North America: FY2030 margin set to 26.2% instead of 30.2% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -0.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Europe, Middle East & Africa: FY2030 margin set to 19.2% instead of 23.2% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Greater China: FY2030 margin set to 21.9% instead of 25.9% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -4.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Asia Pacific & Latin America: FY2030 margin set to 22.2% instead of 26.2% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Converse: FY2030 margin set to 1.5% instead of 5.5% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -6.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →