Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · LIN
Linde PLC
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $221B
- FY2030 revenue
- $44B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $23.30 · 21×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.31% · 7.87%
How this is built. No dated revenue/EBIT target; EPS8-12% model is not a sales target. Mid-cycle segment growth, capex guidance and rule 7 margins. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 31, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $4.08B | +7% | $1.27B | 31.2% |
| EMEA | $2.30B | +7% | $0.82B | 35.7% |
| APAC | $1.87B | +13% | $0.53B | 28.4% |
| Engineering | $0.63B | +13% | $0.10B | 16.0% |
| Other | $0.41B | +30% | $18M | 4.4% |
- Underlyingsales+4%; reported+9%.
- 2026 capex$5.5-6.0B.
- Gasbacklog$8.1B; equipmentbacklog$3B.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $19B | $86B | $187.54 | 11.2× EBITDA | 68% |
| EMEA | Margin | $11B | $60B | $130.38 | 15.6× EBIT | 67% |
| APAC | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $9.3B | $44B | $94.96 | 12.6× EBITDA | 69% |
| Engineering | Margin | $2.9B | $8.5B | $18.38 | 14.9× EBIT | 66% |
| Other | Margin | $1.6B | $0.6B | $1.30 | 12.7× EBIT | 70% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$5.6B | −$12.11 | — | 70% |
| All businesses | $44B | $194B | $420.46 |
Americas: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 28.2% EBITDA a year against a 12.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.65 today after paying for its equipment.
APAC: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 35.9% EBITDA a year against a 12.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.86 today after paying for its equipment.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$221B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0.4B
- Equity value at FY2030$220B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$157B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$11B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.9%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$194B
- − borrowings$28B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$1.5B
- + cash and short-term investments$4.9B
- ÷ diluted shares0.461B
- Signal Ledger valuation$366.96
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $37B | $14B | $5.8B | $5.4B | $24B |
| FY2027 | $39B | $15B | $4.4B | $7.7B | $20B |
| FY2028 | $40B | $16B | $4.1B | $8.8B | $14B |
| FY2029 | $42B | $17B | $4.2B | $9.6B | $7.8B |
| FY2030 | $44B | $18B | $4.3B | $10B | $0.4B |
What must be true
- Americas grows revenue from $16.3B in FY2026 to $19.4B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- EMEA grows revenue from $9.1B in FY2026 to $10.9B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- APAC grows revenue from $7.5B in FY2026 to $9.3B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Engineering grows revenue from $2.6B in FY2026 to $2.9B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Other revenue shrinks from $1.7B in FY2026 to $1.6B in FY2030 (-6.1%).
- Americas raises its EBITDA margin from 41.1% to 45.1%.
- EMEA raises its EBIT margin from 35.7% to 39.7%.
- APAC raises its EBITDA margin from 39.1% to 43.1%.
- Engineering raises its EBIT margin from 18.1% to 22.1%.
- Other raises its EBIT margin from -0.5% to 3.5%.
- The company spends $22.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $24.7B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
- Americas earns 28.2% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 12.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- APAC earns 35.9% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 12.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
To reach $510.36 at our discount rate, Linde PLC would need about $63.3B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 14.2% a year from FY2026) with 32.7% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 44.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines — versus $44.1B and 32.7% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 44.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines in our research.
At the research price of $510.36 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.44×At research margins | $63.3B | 14.2% | 32.7% GAAP EBIT 44.5% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $66.2B | 15.5% | 31.8% GAAP EBIT 43.3% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $88.3B | 24.1% | 26.9% GAAP EBIT 36.5% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $132.4B | 37.4% | 21.8% GAAP EBIT 29.6% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $37.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 6.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.44×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.3% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $63.3B (model: $44.1B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Americas
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $39.5B (model: $19.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 69.4% (model: 45.1%).
EMEA
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $23.4B (model: $10.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 82.8% (model: 39.7%).
APAC
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $26.8B (model: $9.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 92.5% (model: 43.1%).
Engineering
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.31%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 40 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Americas | $16.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 7.1% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Americas | $19.4B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.5% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Americas | 45.1% | Rule | linear path to 45.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Americas | 1.6 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.59 sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment lifeAmericas | 15 years | Reported | server life 15 years sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026Americas | $3.6B | Guidance | FY2026 totalcapex$5.5-6.0B midpoint before pool. × 0.6267892145490938 pool share sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthAmericas | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026EMEA | $9.1B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.5% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030EMEA | $10.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030EMEA | 39.7% | Rule | linear path to 39.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEMEA | 8.4% | Rule | FY2026 cashcapex allocated using note 18 additions dividedbyFY1 sales. EMEA FY2025 allocatedcapex/sales~8.2%, below 15% trigger. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthEMEA | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026APAC | $7.5B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 13.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030APAC | $9.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 5.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030APAC | 43.1% | Rule | linear path to 43.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)APAC | 1.2 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.17 sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment lifeAPAC | 15 years | Reported | server life 15 years sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026APAC | $1.2B | Guidance | FY2026 totalcapex$5.5-6.0B midpoint before pool. × 0.2152073820082507 pool share sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthAPAC | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Engineering | $2.6B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 13.4% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Engineering | $2.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Engineering | 22.1% | Rule | linear path to 22.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEngineering | 1.5% | Rule | Historical$35M additions rescaled by 5.75/5.261 then dividedbyFY1 sales, at leastsegmentD&A ratio. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthEngineering | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Other | $1.7B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 29.5% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Other | $1.6B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Other | 3.5% | Rule | linear path to 3.5% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexOther | 7.2% | Rule | Other includescorporate supportassets; maintenance equalssegmentD&A. Excesscorporate capex assigned togasnetwork, no duplicate. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthOther | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 0.8% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.273B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 0.8% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.273B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.31% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 25.3% | Reported | Methodology 4.5: mean FY2023-25 cash income taxes / pretax income = mean(1.955/7.988,2.216/8.569,2.274/8.897). SEC companyfacts cash taxes paid net and pretax income, USD billions. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $4.9B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0001628280-26-051289 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $28.0B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings + us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001628280-26-051289 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 0001628280-26-051289 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases not separately tagged; retained inside combined debt, with no additional lease deduction balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $1.5B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001628280-26-051289 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0001628280-26-051289 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.461B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-051289 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $2.9B | Reported | Last four paid quarterly dividends; no future increase or buyback assumption. × 0.461B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.464523B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001628280-26-051289; point-in-time denominator retained
- CAPEX_HISTORY assumptions (USD billions): 2011: 1.465000, 2012: 1.465000, 2013: 1.465000, 2014: 1.465000, 2015: 1.465000. FY 2011 reconstructed from earliest FY 2016: capex $1.465B / revenue $10.534B (13.9073%); no vintage revenue: hold anchor capex constant; public history shorter than asset life; SEC 0001628280-19-003050; Valuation methodology §9. Each vintage retains its own basis / ref / reason in the model.
- unallocated company costs: $0.3B a year (0.8% of trailing revenue), growing with the non-infrastructure lines, valued as one negative business
- Americas: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- APAC: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.3%
- Americas: k 1.6 (calibrated 1.59), life 15 years
- APAC: k 1.2 (calibrated 1.17), life 15 years
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →