Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · KO
Coca-Cola Co
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 3, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $301B
- FY2030 revenue
- $61B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $3.62 · 18×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.39% · 7.87%
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 28, 2026 for the quarter to Jul 3, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMEA | $3.24B | +2% | $1.31B | 40.4% |
| Latin America | $1.84B | +16% | $1.18B | 64.0% |
| North America | $5.41B | +7% | $1.70B | 31.3% |
| Asia Pacific | $1.58B | +1% | $0.66B | 41.5% |
| Bottling Investments | $1.53B | +8% | $91M | 6.0% |
- Organic revenue+6%, volume+5%; FY2026 organic growth guidance raised toabout 5%.
- GAAP operating margin 34.9%; underlying tax outlook 19.9%.
- Quarter segment revenues include intersegment sales; consolidated revenue eliminates them. Valuation base uses annual third-party revenue.
- Q3 results scheduledOctober 27; no Q3 results assumed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Margin | $25B | $106B | $24.66 | 15.2× EBIT | 67% |
| EMEA | Margin | $14B | $86B | $19.92 | 16.1× EBIT | 67% |
| Latin America | Margin | $8.1B | $69B | $15.97 | 14.8× EBIT | 65% |
| Asia Pacific | Margin | $6.8B | $41B | $9.50 | 16.2× EBIT | 67% |
| Bottling Investments | Margin | $7.3B | $9B | $2.10 | 12.5× EBIT | 69% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$42B | −$9.84 | — | 71% |
| Publicly traded equity-method stakes (dated company public mark)Note 7: company-owned stake fair values at Dec 31 2025 quoted prices:Monster 15.659,CCEP7.163,FEMSA5.543,HBC4.051,Japan 0.822,Icecek 0.770,Andina 0.278B; sum 34.286B. Use disclosed public mark, not book 20.235B or full investee market caps; not an October 2026 re-mark. | Market mark | — | $34B | $7.97 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $61B | $302B | $70.28 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$301B
- Less net debt at FY2030$16B
- Equity value at FY2030$285B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$203B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$34B
- + investments held outside the businesses$34B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.2%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$268B
- − borrowings$45B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$2.2B
- + cash and short-term investments$17B
- + investments held outside the businesses$34B
- ÷ diluted shares4.303B
- Signal Ledger valuation$63.16
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $51B | $16B | $2.2B | $11B | $30B |
| FY2027 | $53B | $17B | $2.4B | $12B | $28B |
| FY2028 | $56B | $19B | $2.5B | $13B | $26B |
| FY2029 | $58B | $20B | $2.6B | $14B | $22B |
| FY2030 | $61B | $22B | $2.7B | $15B | $16B |
What must be true
- North America grows revenue from $21.1B in FY2026 to $25.2B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- EMEA grows revenue from $11.0B in FY2026 to $13.8B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Latin America grows revenue from $7.3B in FY2026 to $8.1B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Asia Pacific grows revenue from $5.4B in FY2026 to $6.8B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Bottling Investments grows revenue from $6.2B in FY2026 to $7.3B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- North America raises its EBIT margin from 27.3% to 31.3%.
- EMEA raises its EBIT margin from 39.7% to 43.7%.
- Latin America raises its EBIT margin from 59.1% to 63.1%.
- Asia Pacific raises its EBIT margin from 38.3% to 42.3%.
- Bottling Investments raises its EBIT margin from 7.4% to 11.4%.
- The company spends $12.3B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $30.6B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $95.34 at our discount rate, Coca-Cola Co would need about $95.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 17.0% a year from FY2026) with 37.2% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $61.2B and 37.2% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $95.34 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $91.8B | 15.8% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 1.56×At research margins | $95.6B | 17.0% | 37.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $122.4B | 24.4% | 30.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $183.6B | 37.7% | 23.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $51.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.5%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.56×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.4% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $95.6B (model: $61.2B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
North America
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $65.2B (model: $25.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 68.5% (model: 31.3%).
EMEA
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $39.5B (model: $13.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 109.7% (model: 43.7%).
Latin America
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $26.1B (model: $8.1B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 184.7% (model: 63.1%).
Asia Pacific
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $33.4B (model: $6.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 176.2% (model: 42.3%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.39%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 37 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026North America | $21.1B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 7.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030North America | $25.2B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.5% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030North America | 31.3% | Rule | linear path to 31.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexNorth America | 4.4% | Reported | FY2025 capex 2.112B / consolidated revenue 47.941B; allocate consolidated maintenance spend pro rata because annual corporate allocation is material. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthNorth America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026EMEA | $11.0B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 2.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030EMEA | $13.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030EMEA | 43.7% | Rule | linear path to 43.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEMEA | 4.4% | Reported | FY2025 capex 2.112B / consolidated revenue 47.941B; allocate consolidated maintenance spend pro rata because annual corporate allocation is material. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthEMEA | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Latin America | $7.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 16.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Latin America | $8.1B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 2.4% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Latin America | 63.1% | Rule | linear path to 63.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexLatin America | 4.4% | Reported | FY2025 capex 2.112B / consolidated revenue 47.941B; allocate consolidated maintenance spend pro rata because annual corporate allocation is material. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthLatin America | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Asia Pacific | $5.4B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Asia Pacific | $6.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Asia Pacific | 42.3% | Rule | linear path to 42.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAsia Pacific | 4.4% | Reported | FY2025 capex 2.112B / consolidated revenue 47.941B; allocate consolidated maintenance spend pro rata because annual corporate allocation is material. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthAsia Pacific | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Bottling Investments | $6.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 8.0% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Bottling Investments | $7.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.3% investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Bottling Investments | 11.4% | Rule | linear path to 11.4% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBottling Investments | 4.4% | Reported | FY2025 capex 2.112B / consolidated revenue 47.941B; allocate consolidated maintenance spend pro rata because annual corporate allocation is material. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthBottling Investments | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 4.0% | Reported | Annual cost baseline $1.915B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 4.0% | Reported | Annual cost baseline $1.915B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.39% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 19.9% | Guidance | Current FY2026 underlying effective-tax guidance 19.9%, excluding adverse IRS-litigation outcome. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $16.5B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $45.0B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; Same-date consolidated face statement and complete held-for-sale asset/liability note reconcile separately; disposal group remains consolidated until future closing. Each cash/borrowing component counted once; no sale proceeds, arbitrary dimensions, or disposal-group totals added as debt. sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases not separately tagged; retained inside combined debt, with no additional lease deduction balance sheet 2026-07-03 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $2.2B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001628280-26-050503 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 4.303B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-27 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-050503 |
| Publicly traded equity-method stakes (dated company public mark)Non-operating assets | $34.3B | Reported | Note 7: company-owned stake fair values at Dec 31 2025 quoted prices:Monster 15.659,CCEP7.163,FEMSA5.543,HBC4.051,Japan 0.822,Icecek 0.770,Andina 0.278B; sum 34.286B. Use disclosed public mark, not book 20.235B or full investee market caps; not an October 2026 re-mark. investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $9.0B | Reported | Four paid dividends:Dec 2025 0.51 plusApr/Jul/Oct 2026 0.53 each=2.10; December 2026 declaration excluded. × 4.303B shares investors.coca-colacompany.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 4.313B quarter 2026-04-04..2026-07-03 · 0001628280-26-050503; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $1.9B a year (4.0% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.4%
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →