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Signal Ledger valuation · INTU

Intuit Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 31, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$517.54+46% vs $354.90
Business value at FY2030
$162B
FY2030 revenue
$31B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$29.63 · 23×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
8.52% · 8.90%

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0000896878-26-000037 · price $354.90 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q4 FY2026

Reported Aug 25, 2026 for the quarter to Jul 31, 2026 (company release ↗ · filing ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$4.35B
Operating income$0.47B10.9% margin
Net income$0.36B
Diluted EPS$1.34
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)$3.42B+14%$2.63B76.8%
Consumer$0.93B+14%$0.56B60.5%
  • FY2026 company revenue reached $21.448B; Q4 revenue was $4.354B.
  • FY2027 Mailchimp becomes a separate segment; historical FY2026 GBS includes it.
  • From FY2027 non-GAAP measures retain SBC; FY2027 company revenue guide is $23.279–23.512B.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)Margin$20B$236B$884.1017.2× EBIT69%
Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)Margin$11B$113B$423.0315.6× EBIT67%
Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative businessCost line—−$211B−$787.84—68%
All businesses$31B$139B$519.29

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$162B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$21B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$183B
  4. ÷ (1 + 8.90%)^4.0 years at the cost of equity$130B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$4.5B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.5%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$139B
  2. − borrowings$7.7B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$7.2B
  5. ÷ diluted shares0.267B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$517.54

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2027$23B$7.9B$0.5B$5.7B$3.8B cash
FY2028$26B$8.7B$0.5B$6.2B$8.8B cash
FY2029$28B$9.4B$0.6B$6.8B$15B cash
FY2030$31B$10B$0.6B$7.4B$21B cash

What must be true

  • Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp) grows revenue from $14.4B in FY2027 to $19.9B in FY2030 (1.4×).
  • Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax) grows revenue from $9.0B in FY2027 to $10.7B in FY2030 (1.2×).
  • Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp) lets its EBIT margin slip from 83.9% to 80.9%.
  • Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax) raises its EBIT margin from 73.5% to 77.5%.
  • The company spends $2.2B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $0.5B in FY2026 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $354.90 is about $20.2B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 1.4% a year from FY2026) with 79.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $30.7B and 79.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $354.90 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
0.66×At research margins$20.2B−1.4%
79.7% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$46B21.0%
62.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$61.3B30.0%
59.3% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$92B43.9%
55.7% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $21.4B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
11.0%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.5% WACC · 8.9% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
0.66×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $20.2B (model: $30.7B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $10.5B (model: $19.9B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 66.0% (model: 80.9%).

Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)

Revenue alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 47.7% (model: 77.5%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
8.90%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.01 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
8.52%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 20 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2027Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)$14.4BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 11.7% investors.intuit.com ↗ · investors.intuit.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)$19.9BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 11.5% investors.intuit.com ↗ · investors.intuit.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Global Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)80.9%Rulelinear path to 80.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 11.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexGlobal Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)2.0%RuleNo verified maintenance/growth split; explicit rule default 2% of revenue. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthGlobal Business Solutions (including Mailchimp)3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2027Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)$9.0BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 5.1% investors.intuit.com ↗ · investors.intuit.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)$10.7BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% investors.intuit.com ↗ · investors.intuit.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Consumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)77.5%Rulelinear path to 77.5% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexConsumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)2.0%RuleNo verified maintenance/growth split; explicit rule default 2% of revenue. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthConsumer (TurboTax, Credit Karma and ProTax)3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Share of revenue FY2027Company costs48.1%Reportedcompany costs outside segment profit, cash only: $16.195B summed segment operating income minus $5.884B GAAP EBIT = $10.311B / $21.448B revenue; includes $2.056B SBC, $7.303B other corporate costs, amortization and restructuring. Restores costs missed by the evidence pack; no second corporate deduction.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗
Share of revenue FY2034Company costs48.1%Reportedcompany costs outside segment profit, cash only: $16.195B summed segment operating income minus $5.884B GAAP EBIT = $10.311B / $21.448B revenue; includes $2.056B SBC, $7.303B other corporate costs, amortization and restructuring. Restores costs missed by the evidence pack; no second corporate deduction.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗
WACCDiscount rates8.52%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates8.90%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.01 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates24.0%GuidancePublic long-term normalized tax rate 24% for FY2026 and FY2027. investors.intuit.com ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$7.2BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:DebtSecuritiesAvailableForSaleExcludingAccruedInterestCurrent · 0000896878-26-000037 (filed 2026-09-09)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$7.7BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000896878-26-000037 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000896878-26-000037
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-07-31
SharesBalance sheet0.267BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-08-31 cover page of 10-K 0000896878-26-000037
Dividends per yearShareholders$1.3BReportedTrailing four payments through October 16, 2026: three $1.20 payments plus latest $1.38; not annualized new dividend of $5.52. × 0.267B shares investors.intuit.com ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.277B FY 2026-07-31 diluted average; point-in-time denominator retained
  • unallocated company costs: $10.3B a year (48.1% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
  • cost of equity 8.90% (β 1.01 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.5%

Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →