Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · DHR
Danaher Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 25, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $145B
- FY2030 revenue
- $37B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.95 · 20×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.49% · 8.41%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 21, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 25, 2026 (company release ↗ · filing ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biotechnology | $1.81B | +0.5% | $0.48B | 26.4% |
| Life Sciences | $1.86B | +4% | $0.26B | 13.9% |
| Diagnostics | $2.88B | +17% | $0.61B | 21.3% |
- Reported sales 6.554B (+8.3% from the exact table; release headline rounds growth to 8.5%); segment EBIT 1.350B less 0.105B corporate costs equals 1.245B GAAP operating profit.
- Total GAAP net earnings 1.235B and diluted EPS 1.75 include 28M discontinued-operations earnings. Continuing earnings are 1.207B / EPS 1.71; adjusted continuing EPS is 2.11.
- FY2026 adjusted continuing EPS guide rises to 8.57-8.62. Q4 core sales growth is approximately 3%; guided adjusted operating margin approximately 29.5% is not a GAAP segment-margin target.
- Q3 10-Q is public: September 25 cash 5.682B, debt 2.094B + 24.388B = 26.482B, NCI 0.012B; October 15 cover shares 703,530,815. No newer release-balance override is needed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biotechnology | Margin | $10B | $42B | $59.90 | 15.9× EBIT | 69% |
| Life Sciences | Margin | $11B | $18B | $25.71 | 18.3× EBIT | 71% |
| Diagnostics | Margin | $16B | $75B | $106.78 | 17.6× EBIT | 69% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$9.5B | −$13.53 | — | 73% |
| All businesses | $37B | $126B | $178.86 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$145B
- Less net debt at FY2030$3.8B
- Equity value at FY2030$141B
- ÷ (1 + 8.41%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$100B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$3.7B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$126B
- − borrowings$26B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$5.7B
- ÷ diluted shares0.704B
- Signal Ledger valuation$149.28
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $26B | $5.8B | $1.2B | $3.7B | $20B |
| FY2027 | $29B | $6.7B | $1.4B | $4.3B | $17B |
| FY2028 | $31B | $7.6B | $1.5B | $5B | $14B |
| FY2029 | $34B | $8.6B | $1.6B | $5.7B | $9.2B |
| FY2030 | $37B | $9.8B | $1.8B | $6.5B | $3.8B |
What must be true
- Biotechnology grows revenue from $7.7B in FY2026 to $10.3B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Life Sciences grows revenue from $7.7B in FY2026 to $10.6B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Diagnostics grows revenue from $10.9B in FY2026 to $16.1B in FY2030 (1.5×).
- Biotechnology raises its EBIT margin from 25.6% to 29.6%.
- Life Sciences raises its EBIT margin from 7.1% to 11.1%.
- Diagnostics raises its EBIT margin from 26.7% to 30.7%.
- The company spends $7.4B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $20.8B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $229.75 at our discount rate, Danaher Corp would need about $54.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 20.1% a year from FY2026) with 24.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $36.9B and 24.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $229.75 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.48×At research margins | $54.6B | 20.1% | 24.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $55.4B | 20.5% | 24.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $73.8B | 29.5% | 19.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $110.7B | 43.4% | 14.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $26.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.8%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.48×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.5% WACC · 8.4% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $54.6B (model: $36.9B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Diagnostics
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $29.1B (model: $16.1B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 51.7% (model: 30.7%).
Biotechnology
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $25.1B (model: $10.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 63.3% (model: 29.6%).
Life Sciences
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $48.9B (model: $10.6B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 44.5% (model: 11.1%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.41%
- WACC
- 7.49%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.91 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.16 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 44 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Biotechnology | $7.7B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 5.0% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Biotechnology | $10.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 7.7% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Biotechnology | 29.6% | Rule | linear path to 29.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ · filecache.investorroom.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBiotechnology | 5.1% | Rule | FY2025 segment gross PP&E spending 0.37B plus pro-rata allocation of 8M unallocated capex divided by segment sales. Sum economic cash PP&E spend 1.156B; acquisitions excluded; all spending retained as reinvestment, each line below 15%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBiotechnology | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Life Sciences | $7.7B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.4% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Life Sciences | $10.6B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 8.3% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Life Sciences | 11.1% | Rule | linear path to 11.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ · filecache.investorroom.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexLife Sciences | 2.6% | Rule | FY2025 segment gross PP&E spending 0.186B plus pro-rata allocation of 8M unallocated capex divided by segment sales. Sum economic cash PP&E spend 1.156B; acquisitions excluded; all spending retained as reinvestment, each line below 15%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthLife Sciences | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Diagnostics | $10.9B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 9.7% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Diagnostics | $16.1B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 10.2% filecache.investorroom.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Diagnostics | 30.7% | Rule | linear path to 30.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 10.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ · filecache.investorroom.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexDiagnostics | 6.0% | Rule | FY2025 segment gross PP&E spending 0.592B plus pro-rata allocation of 8M unallocated capex divided by segment sales. Sum economic cash PP&E spend 1.156B; acquisitions excluded; all spending retained as reinvestment, each line below 15%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthDiagnostics | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-09-25Biotechnology | $5.524000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month reported Biotechnology sales in USD billions, January 1 through September 25,2026. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-09-25Biotechnology | $1.567000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month GAAP segment operating profit for Biotechnology, including acquired amortization and SBC; not adjusted profit. Other corporate expenses 0.283B remain outside these segment amounts. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-09-25Biotechnology | $0.124000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month Biotechnology tangible PP&E depreciation, consistent with the maintenance D&A scope. Acquired amortization is separate and no independent acquired-amortization addback is enabled. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-09-25Life Sciences | $5.481000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month reported Life Sciences sales in USD billions, January 1 through September 25,2026. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-09-25Life Sciences | $0.728000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month GAAP segment operating profit for Life Sciences, including acquired amortization and SBC; not adjusted profit. Other corporate expenses 0.283B remain outside these segment amounts. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-09-25Life Sciences | $0.144000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month Life Sciences tangible PP&E depreciation, consistent with the maintenance D&A scope. Acquired amortization is separate and no independent acquired-amortization addback is enabled. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-09-25Diagnostics | $7.765000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month reported Diagnostics sales in USD billions, January 1 through September 25,2026. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-09-25Diagnostics | $1.704000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month GAAP segment operating profit for Diagnostics, including acquired amortization and SBC; not adjusted profit. Other corporate expenses 0.283B remain outside these segment amounts. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-09-25Diagnostics | $0.322000B | Reported | Note 6 nine-month Diagnostics tangible PP&E depreciation, consistent with the maintenance D&A scope. Acquired amortization is separate and no independent acquired-amortization addback is enabled. sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 1.4% | Reported | Annual cost baseline $0.335B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 1.4% | Reported | Annual cost baseline $0.335B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.49% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.41% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.91 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.16 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 17.0% | Guidance | Forward FY2026/Q4 effective-tax outlook is approximately 17%, excluding discrete tax events. Use it as the existing operating-tax proxy rather than perpetuating the Q3 GAAP tax benefit: 263M Q3 discrete benefits include tax-audit reserve releases. This is the guided adjusted rate applied to modeled GAAP segment EBIT, an explicit approximation; it does not add back amortization, impairments or acquisition costs. sec.gov ↗ |
| fiscalYearHistorical accounting reconciliation | FY2025 | Reported | FY2025 Note 6 annual segment reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| grossRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $24.6B | Reported | External segment sales 7.293+7.334+9.941=24.568B. sec.gov ↗ |
| revenueEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.0B | Reported | No intersegment revenue elimination in reported note. sec.gov ↗ |
| consolidatedRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $24.6B | Reported | Reported consolidated revenue. sec.gov ↗ |
| segmentProfitBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $5.0B | Reported | Reported segment operating profit 1.864+.520+2.650=5.034B. sec.gov ↗ |
| profitEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.0B | Reported | No separate internal profit elimination reported. sec.gov ↗ |
| corporateCostsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.6B | Reported | Historical corporate operating expense.344B plus nonoperating other expense.222B; historical accounting only. Operating model forecasts cash corporate expense.335B and omits nonoperating investment marks. sec.gov ↗ |
| operatingInterestBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.2B | Reported | Historical interest 265M less treasury income 30M; accounting reconciliation only, not an extra operating cash stream. sec.gov ↗ |
| consolidatedPretaxBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $4.2B | Reported | 5.034-.566-.235=4.233B reported continuing pretax. EBIT4.690B =5.034-.344. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $5.7B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; current-asset cash row excludes noncurrent restricted cash before extraction sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $26.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000313616-26-000199 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000313616-26-000199 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-09-25 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $12M | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000313616-26-000199 (filed 2026-10-21) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.704B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-15 cover page of 10-Q 0000313616-26-000199 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $1.0B | Reported | Four paid quarters throughOctober 20: October 2025 .32, January 2026 .32, April 2026 .40, July 2026 .40 =1.44. October 30,2026 .40 is declared but not yet paid and is excluded. × 0.704B shares investors.danaher.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.7068B quarter 2026-06-27..2026-09-25 · 0000313616-26-000199; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.3B a year (1.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- Biotechnology: dated YTD inputs through 2026-09-25; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- Life Sciences: dated YTD inputs through 2026-09-25; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- Diagnostics: dated YTD inputs through 2026-09-25; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- cost of equity 8.41% (β 0.91 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.16 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 7.5%
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.164, net debt/EBITDA 3.82, β_lev 0.909, β 0.846 → 0.909; D $26.48B, E $161.64B, cash $5.68B, base EBITDA $5.44B
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →