Signal Ledger valuation · CRWV
CoreWeave, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $124B
- FY2030 revenue
- $40B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.61 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.65% · 11.56%
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026 (10-Q)
Reported Aug 12, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
- Quarter ended June 30, 2026; report date is the August 12 Form 10-Q filing date. The existing valuation already uses this balance sheet and reported revenue.
- Net loss and diluted loss per share remain GAAP; no adjusted EBITDA is substituted for operating profit. No separate segment profits are disclosed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave Cloud Platform | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $40B | $69B | $125.26 | 4.5× EBITDA | 102% |
| Marketable equity securities (Level 1)The June 30, 2026 Form 10-Q reports $45 million of Level 1 marketable equity securities with a public mark. Nonmarketable strategic investments and equity-method joint ventures are excluded because they lack a public mark. | Market mark | — | $0B | $0.08 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $40B | $69B | $125.34 |
CoreWeave Cloud Platform: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 27.7% EBITDA a year against a 24.3% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $0.29 today after paying for its equipment.
Needs $20B of funding before it pays for itself; that lands in net debt.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$124B
- Less net debt at FY2030$55B
- Equity value at FY2030$68B
- ÷ (1 + 11.56%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$42B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
- + investments held outside the businesses$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 7.4% — more than our 5% tolerance. Usually the net debt path borrows at a much lower rate than the discount rate assumes; treat the value as less certain.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$69B
- − borrowings$36B
- − finance leases$0.2B
- + cash and short-term investments$5.5B
- + investments held outside the businesses$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.552B
- Signal Ledger valuation$70.53
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $13B | $6B | $35B | −$29B | $46B |
| FY2027 | $20B | $10B | $16B | −$5.4B | $54B |
| FY2028 | $30B | $17B | $14B | $2.3B | $55B |
| FY2029 | $35B | $22B | $16B | $4.6B | $54B |
| FY2030 | $40B | $27B | $23B | $1.9B | $55B |
What must be true
- CoreWeave Cloud Platform grows revenue from $12.8B in FY2026 to $39.7B in FY2030 (3.1×).
- CoreWeave Cloud Platform raises its EBITDA margin from 46.9% to 69.2%.
- The company spends $103.9B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $55.3B in FY2030 and stays financeable.
- CoreWeave Cloud Platform earns 27.7% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 24.3% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $55.60 is about $30.3B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 24.1% a year from FY2026) with 69.2% EBITDA margin — versus $39.7B and 69.2% EBITDA margin in our research.
At the research price of $55.60 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.76×At research margins | $30.3B | 24.1% | 69.2% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $59.5B | 46.8% | 65.6% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $79.4B | 57.8% | 64.6% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $119B | 74.6% | 63.6% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $12.8B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 10.2%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.76×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.7% WACC · 11.6% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $30.3B (model: $39.7B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
CoreWeave Cloud Platform
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $30.4B (model: $39.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 67.5% (model: 69.2%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 11.56%
- WACC
- 9.65%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.54 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 1.17 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC + 1.000000 point build-out premium: 1pp × clamp(FY1 net debt increase / (2% × equity market value), 0, 1), not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 16 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026CoreWeave Cloud Platform | $12.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 149.5% s205.q4cdn.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030CoreWeave Cloud Platform | $39.7B | Guidance | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.0% s205.q4cdn.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030CoreWeave Cloud Platform | 69.2% | Guidance | linear path to 69.2% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 27.5% + depreciation k ÷ life = 2.5 ÷ 6 = 41.7% of revenue → EBITDA 69.2% s205.q4cdn.com ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)CoreWeave Cloud Platform | 2.5 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 2.50 marketscreener.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeCoreWeave Cloud Platform | 6 years | Reported | server life 6 years sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026CoreWeave Cloud Platform | $35.1B | Guidance | FY2026 capital expenditure guidance was $35-$39 billion; the midpoint is $37.0 billion before applying the infrastructure pool share. × 0.95 pool share marketscreener.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthCoreWeave Cloud Platform | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.65% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC + 1.000000 point build-out premium: 1pp × clamp(FY1 net debt increase / (2% × equity market value), 0, 1), not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 11.56% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.54 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 1.17 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 17 monthly returns vs SPY, 2025-04..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | No management effective-tax-rate guidance was identified. The reported FY2026 effective tax rate is distorted by losses and valuation allowances, so a normalized 21% corporate tax assumption is used. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $5.5B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0001769628-26-000366 (filed 2026-08-12) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $35.6B | Reported | total long-term debt (includes the current portion) plus short-term borrowings beyond it us-gaap:DebtInstrumentCarryingAmount · 0001769628-26-000366 (filed 2026-08-12) |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.2B | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0001769628-26-000366 (filed 2026-08-12) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.552B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31 cover page of 10-Q 0001769628-26-000366 (3 share classes summed) |
| Marketable equity securities (Level 1)Non-operating assets | $45M | Reported | The June 30, 2026 Form 10-Q reports $45 million of Level 1 marketable equity securities with a public mark. Nonmarketable strategic investments and equity-method joint ventures are excluded because they lack a public mark. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | CoreWeave has paid no dividends during the last four quarters and states that it has no current plans to pay dividends. × 0.552B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.551B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001769628-26-000366; point-in-time denominator retained
- CAPEX_HISTORY assumptions (USD billions): 2020: 2.943000, 2021: 2.943000, 2022: 2.943000. FY 2020 reconstructed from earliest FY 2023: capex $2.943B / revenue $0.229B (1285.1528%); no vintage revenue: hold anchor capex constant; public history shorter than asset life; SEC 0001769628-26-000104; Valuation methodology §9. Each vintage retains its own basis / ref / reason in the model.
- cost of equity 11.56% (β 1.54 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 1.17 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 9.7% incl. 1.000000-point build-out premium (§4.5 G2)
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 1.167, net debt/EBITDA 12.56, β_lev 1.537, β 1.200 → 1.537; D $35.77B, E $30.67B, cash $5.54B, base EBITDA $2.41B
- CoreWeave Cloud Platform: k 2.5 (calibrated 2.50), life 6 years
- CoreWeave Cloud Platform: operating-margin target 27.5% converted to 69.2% EBITDA (k ÷ life 41.7%)
- §4.5 G2: FY1 net debt increase $15.614370396661755B / (2% × equity market value $30.6654350712B); build-out premium 1.000000pp, measured before premium
- enterprise and equity-chain values differ by 7.4% (limit 5%)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (gpt-5.6-luna) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →