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Signal Ledger valuation · CRM

Salesforce, Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 31, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$229.87−8% vs $250.29
Business value at FY2030
$253B
FY2030 revenue
$63B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$13.73 · 22×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
8.76% · 9.71%

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0001108524-26-000190 · price $250.29 at research time · Valuation methodology

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Customer relationship management platformMargin$63B$218B$264.5216.7× EBIT70%
All businesses$63B$218B$264.52

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$253B
  2. Less net debt at FY2030$2.4B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$251B
  4. ÷ (1 + 9.71%)^3.5 years at the cost of equity$181B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$4.3B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.9%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$218B
  2. − borrowings$39B
  3. − finance leases$0.6B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$11B
  5. ÷ diluted shares0.823B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$229.87

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2027$46B$10B$0.7B$7.2B$26B
FY2028$51B$12B$0.8B$8.5B$20B
FY2029$57B$14B$0.9B$10B$12B
FY2030$63B$16B$0.9B$12B$2.4B

What must be true

  • Customer relationship management platform grows revenue from $46.3B in FY2027 to $63.0B in FY2030 (1.4×).
  • Customer relationship management platform raises its EBIT margin from 20.1% to 24.1%.
  • The company spends $3.3B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $28.5B in FY2026 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $250.29 at our discount rate, Salesforce, Inc. would need about $68.1B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 13.2% a year from FY2026) with 24.1% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $63B and 24.1% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $250.29 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.08×At research margins$68.1B13.2%
24.1% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$94.5B22.8%
17.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$126B32.0%
13.3% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$189B46.1%
9.0% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $41.5B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
8.4%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.8% WACC · 9.7% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
1.08×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $68.1B (model: $63B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Customer relationship management platform

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $67.9B (model: $63B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 25.9% (model: 24.1%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
9.71%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
8.76%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2027Customer relationship management platform$46.3BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 11.4% sec.gov ↗
Revenue FY2030Customer relationship management platform$63.0BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 10.9% sec.gov ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Customer relationship management platform24.1%Rulelinear path to 24.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 11.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexCustomer relationship management platform1.5%GuidanceFY2027 capital spending guidance approximately 1.5% of revenue; equals maintenance depreciation proxy. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthCustomer relationship management platform3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates8.76%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates9.71%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.17 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates22.3%GuidanceFY2027 GAAP effective tax rate guidance 22.3%; use GAAP with GAAP EBIT. sec.gov ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$11.4BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0001108524-26-000190 (filed 2026-08-27)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$39.3BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001108524-26-000190 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001108524-26-000190
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.6BReportedfinance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0001108524-26-000190 (filed 2026-08-27)
SharesBalance sheet0.823BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-08-20 cover page of 10-Q 0001108524-26-000190
Dividends per yearShareholders$1.4BReportedLast four cash payments through research date 2026-10-19: January 2026 $0.416 plus April, July and October 2026 $0.44 each = $1.736. No prospective dividend growth. × 0.823B shares investor.salesforce.com ↗ · investor.salesforce.com ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.821B quarter 2026-05-01..2026-07-31 · 0001108524-26-000190; point-in-time denominator retained
  • cost of equity 9.71% (β 1.17 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.8%
  • §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.194, net debt/EBITDA 3.18, β_lev 0.920, β 1.167 → 1.167; D $39.92B, E $205.99B, cash $11.40B, base EBITDA $8.95B

Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →