ConocoPhillips

What the price implies

To reach $145.63 at our discount rate, ConocoPhillips would need about $67B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 5.5% a year from FY2026) with 21.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $66.3B and 21.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $145.63 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

CAGR uses $83.9B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate

7.2%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.2% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor

1.01×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $67B (model: $66.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Showing the 4 largest of 5 eligible businesses by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.