Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · COIN
Coinbase Global, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $14B
- FY2030 net income
- $1.1B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $4.04 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.87% · 9.87%
How this is built. No public long-term company revenue or profit target; total-revenue estimates bridge the net-revenue consensus and corporate interest, with FY2030 held at a mid-cycle normalization level rather than a crypto peak. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 30, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase consolidated, single operating segment | $1.22B | −19% | −$0.11B | -9.3% |
- Net revenue 1.154301B = transaction.599156B + subscription/services.555145B; corporate/other interest.065767B completes total revenue.
- Stablecoin revenue.292147B (H1.597582B) is already operating revenue; USDC rewards.119108B remain in sales and marketing.
- Company-owned crypto and Circle/strategic holdings are already included in common equity under the firm-wide financial model. Customer assets and USDC balances are not shareholder assets.
- Q3 results scheduled October 29; no Q3 actuals assumed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide)Crypto financial platform | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $12B | $46.55 | 1.0× P/B | 4% |
| All businesses | — | $12B | $46.55 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$14B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$14B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$9B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$3.3B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$12B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.264B
- Signal Ledger valuation$46.55
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $5.7B | $1.1B | $0B | $0.8B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $6B | $1.1B | $0B | $0.9B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $6.4B | $1.2B | $0B | $0.9B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $6.8B | $1.3B | $0B | $1B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $7.3B | $1.4B | $0B | $1.1B | $0B |
What must be true
- Crypto financial platform grows revenue from $5.7B in FY2026 to $7.3B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide) moves its return on equity from 6.3% to 8.1% by FY2030, against a 9.87% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $169.09 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 4.8%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.9% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.87%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityCoinbase financial platform (firm-wide) | $13.1B | Reported | June 2026 common shareholders equity; no preferred or minority claim. Client custodial assets are not company equity. sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2026Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide) | $0.8B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 19.1% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2030Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide) | $1.1B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 19.1% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ |
| Payout ratioCoinbase financial platform (firm-wide) | 100.0% | Rule | Rule default for asset-light financial fee businesses; model distributes all normalized earnings. A valuation convention, not actual dividend/buyback guidance; broker regulatory capital remains a limitation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthCoinbase financial platform (firm-wide) | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 23.2% | Rule | Normalized statutory proxy: 21% federal plus FY2025 2.21-point state tax reconciliation. Loss-year effective rates and equity/crypto marks make cash-tax averages unreliable; no guided long-term rate. This departure from cash-average default is explicit. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.264B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-23 cover page of 10-Q 0001679788-26-000088 (2 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Financial payoutRatio supplies capital returns; no separate dividend.: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.263412B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001679788-26-000088; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.9%
- Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide): FY2030 pre-tax margin set to 19.1% instead of 23.1% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide): residual income on $13.1B of common equity, earnings = revenue × pre-tax margin, payout 100% (methodology §3.7)
- Coinbase financial platform (firm-wide): FY2030 return on equity 8.1% is below the 9.9% cost of equity, so it is worth less than its book value
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →