Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · BLK
BlackRock, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $148B
- FY2030 net income
- $10B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $63.79 · 14×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.87% · 9.87%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 FY2026
Reported Oct 14, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock single operating segment | $7.75B | +19% | $2.33B | 30.0% |
- AUM $15.488T and quarterly inflows $205.466B; client assets are not shareholder NAV.
- GAAP operating margin 30.0%; adjusted 47.8% uses exclusions and distribution-cost adjustment.
- Latest release reports 162.2M outstanding shares including Subco units; a newer full balance sheet is not supplied.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock investment management and technologyInvestment management and technology | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $127B | $781.61 | 2.5× P/B | 36% |
| All businesses | — | $127B | $781.61 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$148B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$148B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$97B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$30B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$127B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.162B
- Signal Ledger valuation$781.61
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $29B | $8.8B | $0B | $6.7B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $30B | $9.8B | $0B | $7.5B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $32B | $11B | $0B | $8.4B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $33B | $12B | $0B | $9.3B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $35B | $14B | $0B | $10B | $0B |
What must be true
- Investment management and technology grows revenue from $28.8B in FY2026 to $35.0B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- BlackRock investment management and technology moves its return on equity from 11.1% to 17.1% by FY2030, against a 9.87% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $1,137.29 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.7%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.9% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.87%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityBlackRock investment management and technology | $60.4B | Reported | June parent common equity 57.613B plus redeemable Subco NCI2.828B =60.441B in the same economic scope as the 163m-scale cover denominator including exchangeable Subco Units. CIP permanent/redeemable NCI excluded. Do not deduct Subco again when its units are already included in shares. sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2026BlackRock investment management and technology | $6.7B | Guidance | revenue × pre-tax margin 30.4% (management target) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Net income FY2030BlackRock investment management and technology | $10.4B | Guidance | revenue × pre-tax margin 38.6% (management target) × (1 − 23% tax) sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Payout ratioBlackRock investment management and technology | 100.0% | Rule | Methodology 4.6 asset-light financial convention: 100% normalized earnings distributable. Not actual capital-return guidance; acquisitions and regulatory requirements can consume cash. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBlackRock investment management and technology | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 23.4% | Reported | Three-year consolidated net cash taxes / consolidated pretax income: FY2025 2.298/7.619, FY2024 1.699/8.295, FY2023 1.392/7.155. Use complete-year values despite corporate reorganization, rather than a discretionary normalized tax proxy. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.162B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-31 cover page of 10-Q 0001193125-26-337177 (2 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Zero standalone dividends under financial residual income valuation; payoutRatio supplies distributions, avoiding double count.: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- reported fully diluted cover aggregate reconciled to common shares plus exchangeable units; aggregate counted once (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2012383/000119312526337177/blk-20260630.htm)
- share-count comparison: 0.164647766B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001193125-26-337177; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.9%
- BlackRock investment management and technology: residual income on $60.4B of common equity, earnings = revenue × pre-tax margin, payout 100% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →