Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · AMGN
Amgen Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $170B
- FY2030 revenue
- $45B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $17.55 · 15×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.91% · 8.67%
How this is built. No verified current combined-company management revenue target: use cited FY2030 FactSet revenue consensus, cross-checked against patent erosion and growth brands; the GAAP margin uses the methodology default, with no separately seeded pipeline. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Aug 4, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharmaceuticals | $10.1B | +10% | $3.51B | 35.0% |
- Total revenue grew 10%; product sales 9%; six growth drivers grew 26%.
- Prolia sales.759B fell 32% and Xgeva.352B fell 34%, while Repatha.953B grew 37% and EVENITY.714B grew 38%.
- Raised FY2026 revenue guidance to 38.2-39.4B; capex guide 2.6B.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharmaceuticals | Margin | $45B | $161B | $297.19 | 13.1× EBIT | 58% |
| BeOne Medicines equity stakeQ2Note 6 approximately 17% BeOne stake fair value 5.4B as ofJune 30,2026, inOthernoncurrentassets, outsidecash 13.989B. Equity-mark changes includingH1 unrealizedloss.357B are inOtherexpense belowmodeledGAAPoperatingincome, so addingthispublicmarkdoesnotdoublecount EBIT. No growth assumed; no value from future acquisitions. Publictrading/sale restrictions remain. | Market mark | — | $5.4B | $9.99 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $45B | $166B | $307.18 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$170B
- Less net debt at FY2030$28B
- Equity value at FY2030$142B
- ÷ (1 + 8.67%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$98B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$20B
- + investments held outside the businesses$5.4B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$161B
- − borrowings$57B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$14B
- + investments held outside the businesses$5.4B
- ÷ diluted shares0.541B
- Signal Ledger valuation$227.06
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $39B | $14B | $2.6B | $9.9B | $42B |
| FY2027 | $40B | $15B | $2.7B | $11B | $39B |
| FY2028 | $42B | $15B | $2.8B | $10B | $36B |
| FY2029 | $44B | $15B | $2.9B | $11B | $32B |
| FY2030 | $45B | $16B | $3B | $11B | $28B |
What must be true
- Biopharmaceuticals grows revenue from $38.8B in FY2026 to $45.3B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Biopharmaceuticals raises its EBIT margin from 24.7% to 28.7%.
- The company spends $14.1B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $43.3B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $447.28 at our discount rate, Amgen Inc would need about $85.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 21.8% a year from FY2026) with 28.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $45.3B and 28.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $447.28 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $67.9B | 15.0% | 34.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.89×At research margins | $85.4B | 21.8% | 28.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $90.5B | 23.6% | 27.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $135.8B | 36.8% | 20.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $38.8B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.3%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.89×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.9% WACC · 8.7% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $85.4B (model: $45.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Biopharmaceuticals
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $82.7B (model: $45.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 47.5% (model: 28.7%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.67%
- WACC
- 7.91%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.96 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 24 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Biopharmaceuticals | $38.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 5.6% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Biopharmaceuticals | $45.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.9% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Biopharmaceuticals | 28.7% | Rule | linear path to 28.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBiopharmaceuticals | 6.7% | Rule | Conservatively retain all FY2026 capex guidance 2.6B / FY2026 revenue guidance midpoint 38.8B as the reinvestment share, rather than assert it is maintenance-only. FY2025 actual 1.858B/36.751B=5.06%; current expansion raises the modeled ratio to 6.70%, still below 15%. amgen.com ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2026Biopharmaceuticals | $3.6B | Reported | FY2026 H1 amortization 1.8B plus remaining 2026 schedule 1.8B. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2027Biopharmaceuticals | $3.6B | Reported | Note 8 remaining amortization schedule forFY2027. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2028Biopharmaceuticals | $2.8B | Reported | Note 8 remaining amortization schedule forFY2028. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2029Biopharmaceuticals | $2.3B | Reported | Note 8 remaining amortization schedule forFY2029. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2030Biopharmaceuticals | $2.2B | Reported | Note 8 remaining amortization schedule forFY2030. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2031Biopharmaceuticals | $2.1B | Reported | Note 8 remaining amortization schedule forFY2031. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2032Biopharmaceuticals | $1.4B | Rule | Conservative linear tail from disclosed 2031 amortization 2.1B to zero in 2034; excludes new acquisitions and is not company guidance. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2033Biopharmaceuticals | $0.7B | Rule | Conservative linear tail from disclosed 2031 amortization 2.1B to zero in 2034; excludes new acquisitions and is not company guidance. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2034Biopharmaceuticals | $0.0B | Rule | Conservative linear tail from disclosed 2031 amortization 2.1B to zero in 2034; excludes new acquisitions and is not company guidance. Finite-lived acquired intangibles remain deducted in modeled GAAP EBIT and are not in maintenance D&A; no inventory step-up, impairments, SBC or future acquisitions are added back. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization already expensed in FY1Biopharmaceuticals | $1.8B | Reported | Note 2/8: H1 finite-lived acquired-intangible amortization 1.8B already expensed and deducted in consolidated GAAP EBIT; tangible/ROU D&A above excludes it. Rounded original disclosure. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBiopharmaceuticals | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.91% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.67% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.96 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 15.3% | Guidance | Midpoint of FY2026 GAAP effective tax rate guidance 14.5%-16.0%, appropriate to GAAP EBIT rather than the separate non-GAAP guide 15.0%-16.5%. FY2025 cash tax 4.300B / pretax 8.976B=47.91% is distorted by repatriation-tax instalments, including the final 2025 payment; it is not perpetuated. Acquisition charges remain in EBIT. amgen.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $14.0B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000318154-26-000126 (filed 2026-08-05) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $57.3B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000318154-26-000126 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000318154-26-000126 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.541B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000318154-26-000126 |
| BeOne Medicines equity stakeNon-operating assets | $5.4B | Reported | Q2Note 6 approximately 17% BeOne stake fair value 5.4B as ofJune 30,2026, inOthernoncurrentassets, outsidecash 13.989B. Equity-mark changes includingH1 unrealizedloss.357B are inOtherexpense belowmodeledGAAPoperatingincome, so addingthispublicmarkdoesnotdoublecount EBIT. No growth assumed; no value from future acquisitions. Publictrading/sale restrictions remain. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $5.4B | Reported | Four paid quarters through September 2026: December 2025 $2.38 plus March/June/September 2026 $2.52 each =9.94; forward annualized 10.08 is not used. × 0.541B shares investors.amgen.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.544B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000318154-26-000126; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 8.67% (β 0.96 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 7.9%
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.237, net debt/EBITDA 4.40, β_lev 0.961, β 0.800 → 0.961; D $57.30B, E $241.81B, cash $13.99B, base EBITDA $9.84B
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →