Signal Ledger valuation · AMAT
Applied Materials Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 26, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $323B
- FY2030 revenue
- $61B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $28.61 · 16×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.75% · 9.87%
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor Systems | Margin | $47B | $237B | $298.81 | 12.9× EBIT | 65% |
| Applied Global Services | Margin | $12B | $52B | $65.11 | 17.0× EBIT | 65% |
| Other including Display and new platforms | Margin | $2B | $0.9B | $1.17 | 15.4× EBIT | 67% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$31B | −$39.25 | — | 64% |
| All businesses | $61B | $259B | $325.84 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$323B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$51B
- Equity value at FY2030$374B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$250B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$5.5B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$259B
- − borrowings$6.5B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$9.2B
- ÷ diluted shares0.794B
- Signal Ledger valuation$329.23
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $34B | $10B | $2.8B | $6.3B | $4B cash |
| FY2027 | $41B | $14B | $3.4B | $8.5B | $11B cash |
| FY2028 | $47B | $17B | $4B | $11B | $21B cash |
| FY2029 | $54B | $21B | $4.5B | $14B | $34B cash |
| FY2030 | $61B | $25B | $5.1B | $17B | $51B cash |
What must be true
- Semiconductor Systems grows revenue from $26.0B in FY2026 to $47.3B in FY2030 (1.8×).
- Applied Global Services grows revenue from $6.8B in FY2026 to $11.7B in FY2030 (1.7×).
- Other including Display and new platforms grows revenue from $1.4B in FY2026 to $2.0B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Semiconductor Systems raises its EBIT margin from 35.5% to 48.3%.
- Applied Global Services raises its EBIT margin from 28.1% to 32.1%.
- Other including Display and new platforms raises its EBIT margin from 0.0% to 4.0%.
- The company spends $19.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $2.7B of net cash in FY2025).
What the price implies
To reach $375.58 at our discount rate, Applied Materials Inc would need about $70.2B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 19.6% a year from FY2026) with 43.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $61B and 43.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $375.58 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.15×At research margins | $70.2B | 19.6% | 43.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $91.5B | 27.8% | 36.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $121.9B | 37.3% | 30.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $182.9B | 52.0% | 24.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $34.3B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 9.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.15×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.8% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $70.2B (model: $61B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Semiconductor Systems
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $55.5B (model: $47.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 54.2% (model: 48.3%).
Applied Global Services
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $21.3B (model: $11.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 54.9% (model: 32.1%).
Other including Display and new platforms
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.75%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 25 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Semiconductor Systems | $26.0B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 25.2% sec.gov ↗ · ir.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Semiconductor Systems | $47.3B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 12.1% sec.gov ↗ · ir.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Semiconductor Systems | 48.3% | Guidance | linear path to 48.3% by FY2030 (management target) investor.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSemiconductor Systems | 10.1% | Rule | Allocate FY2025 total to manufacturing/EPIC-heavy Semiconductor Systems after service/Other default 2% of each revenue: ($2.260B total capex - 2% * ($6.385B+$1.185B)) / $20.798B. Segment allocations reconcile to total and retain all expansion spending. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthSemiconductor Systems | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Applied Global Services | $6.8B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 7.2% investor.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Applied Global Services | $11.7B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 14.4% investor.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Applied Global Services | 32.1% | Rule | linear path to 32.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexApplied Global Services | 2.0% | Rule | No separate segment maintenance capex/D&A disclosed: methodology rule 9 default 2%. Manufacturing/EPIC expansion allocated to Semiconductor Systems rather than spreading its capex equally over service and Other revenue. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthApplied Global Services | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Other including Display and new platforms | $1.4B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 17.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Other including Display and new platforms | $2.0B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 8.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Other including Display and new platforms | 4.0% | Rule | linear path to 4.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 10.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexOther including Display and new platforms | 2.0% | Rule | No separate segment maintenance capex/D&A disclosed: methodology rule 9 default 2%. Manufacturing/EPIC expansion allocated to Semiconductor Systems rather than spreading its capex equally over service and Other revenue. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthOther including Display and new platforms | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 3.8% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$1.074B; grows with the lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-07-26, 2026-04-26, 2026-01-25, 2025-10-26 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 3.8% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$1.074B; grows with the lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-07-26, 2026-04-26, 2026-01-25, 2025-10-26 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.75% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 13.0% | Guidance | Management expects ~11% Q4 FY2026 and ~13% in 2027 as global minimum tax takes effect; use forward 13% normalized rate. ir.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $9.2B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $6.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-07-26 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.794B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-26 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-058235 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $1.6B | Reported | Last four quarterly payments: $0.46 twice and $0.53 twice = $1.98; verify against dividend announcements. No future payout growth. × 0.794B shares ir.appliedmaterials.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.8B quarter 2026-04-27..2026-07-26 · 0001628280-26-058235; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $1.1B a year (3.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.8%
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →