Signal Ledger valuation · ADBE
Adobe Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets, plus our judgment calls): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Aug 28, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $230B
- FY2030 revenue
- $42B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $32.91 · 21×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.49% · 9.87%
How this is built. Management sets no usable targets, so each business is built from cited consensus, company plans and peers, with the judgment calls listed below. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 FY2026
Reported Sep 10, 2026 for the quarter to Aug 28, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe | $6.76B | +13% | $2.35B | 34.8% |
- Revenue grew 13% (12% constant currency); GAAP operating income $2.354B includes $0.544B SBC/deferred compensation.
- FY2026 revenue outlook $26.576–26.626B; GAAP operating margin 35.0%, not adjusted 45.0%.
- Repurchased approximately 9.5M shares in Q3; the model uses the SEC cover count, not future repurchase authority.
- Customer-group subscription revenue is a revenue disaggregation, not additional ASC 280 segments.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe | Margin | $42B | $191B | $489.89 | 15.1× EBIT | 64% |
| All businesses | $42B | $191B | $489.89 |
Our judgment calls
Where the evidence leaves room for judgment, we make the call ourselves and say why (Signal Ledger, Oct 22, 2026). This call is part of the valuation above; every other input follows the research file and the published rules.
| Assumption | Our call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Adobe: FY2030 operating margin | 36.6% | Assume FY2030 GAAP EBIT margin is 36.62754%, equal to FY2025 operating income of $8.706B divided by revenue of $23.769B, instead of the 40.62754% the rule alone would give (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm). The latest 10-Q includes AI inference in subscription costs, reports Q3 subscription costs rising 24% and R&D rising 18% to $1.288B, and describes continued significant investment (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000156/adbe-20260828.htm). FY2026 GAAP margin guidance remains 35.0%; its reconciliation includes 0.3 percentage points of goodwill impairment, 0.4 points of loss contingency and 0.2 points of acquisition expenses (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000147/adbeex991q326.htm). We use the latest complete-year GAAP margin as a sustainable-margin proxy, with SBC retained, rather than assume additional operating leverage or make those FY2026 charges permanent. This is our judgment, not management FY2030 guidance. |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$230B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$43B
- Equity value at FY2030$273B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$183B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 3.6%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$191B
- − borrowings$6.4B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$5.6B
- ÷ diluted shares0.389B
- Signal Ledger valuation$488.03
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $27B | $9.8B | $0.5B | $7.2B | $1.1B cash |
| FY2027 | $30B | $11B | $0.6B | $8.2B | $9.3B cash |
| FY2028 | $33B | $13B | $0.7B | $9.2B | $19B cash |
| FY2029 | $37B | $14B | $0.7B | $10B | $30B cash |
| FY2030 | $42B | $16B | $0.8B | $12B | $43B cash |
What must be true
- Adobe grows revenue from $26.6B in FY2026 to $41.7B in FY2030 (1.6×).
- Adobe raises its EBIT margin from 35.0% to 36.6%.
- The company spends $3.4B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $0.7B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $270.55 is about $21.8B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 4.9% a year from FY2026) with 36.6% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $41.7B and 36.6% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $270.55 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52×At research margins | $21.8B | −4.9% | 36.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $62.6B | 23.9% | 13.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $83.5B | 33.1% | 10.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $125.2B | 47.3% | 7.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $26.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 14.3%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.52×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.5% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $21.8B (model: $41.7B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Adobe
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $23B (model: $41.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 20.4% (model: 36.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.49%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Adobe | $26.6B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 11.9% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Adobe | $41.7B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 11.9% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Adobe | 36.6% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: Assume FY2030 GAAP EBIT margin is 36.62754%, equal to FY2025 operating income of $8.706B divided by revenue of $23.769B, instead of the 40.62754% the rule alone would give (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm). The latest 10-Q includes AI inference in subscription costs, reports Q3 subscription costs rising 24% and R&D rising 18% to $1.288B, and describes continued significant investment (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000156/adbe-20260828.htm). FY2026 GAAP margin guidance remains 35.0%; its reconciliation includes 0.3 percentage points of goodwill impairment, 0.4 points of loss contingency and 0.2 points of acquisition expenses (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000147/adbeex991q326.htm). We use the latest complete-year GAAP margin as a sustainable-margin proxy, with SBC retained, rather than assume additional operating leverage or make those FY2026 charges permanent. This is our judgment, not management FY2030 guidance. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAdobe | 2.0% | Rule | maintenance default 2% of revenue |
| Terminal growthAdobe | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.49% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 22.5% | Guidance | Adobe's updated FY2026 targets assume a GAAP tax rate of approximately 22.5%. ([adobe.com](https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/c6yetrerew.pdf)) sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $5.6B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $6.4B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000796343-26-000156 + us-gaap:LongTermDebt (noncurrent row on reconciled consolidated balance sheet) · 0000796343-26-000156 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-08-28 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.389B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-18 cover page of 10-Q 0000796343-26-000156 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Adobe's FY2025 annual report and FY2026 quarterly filing disclose no cash dividend payments; modeled last-four-quarter dividends per share as zero. ([sec.gov](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/796343/000079634326000003/adbe-20251128.htm)) × 0.389B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.3955B quarter 2026-05-30..2026-08-28 · 0000796343-26-000156; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.5%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics, with our stated judgment calls, because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (gpt-5.6-luna) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →