Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · WMT
Walmart Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 31, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $692B
- FY2030 revenue
- $854B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $6.57 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.60% · 7.87%
How this is built. The investment-community material promises profit growth faster than sales but no dated numeric long-range segment target; latest FY2027 sales guidance and segment trends replace targets, with methodology defaults where long-term evidence is unavailable. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2027
Reported Aug 20, 2026 for the quarter to Jul 31, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | $125.9B | +4% | $8.12B | 6.4% |
| Walmart International | $35.6B | +13% | $1.44B | 4.0% |
| Sams Club U.S. | $26.4B | +9% | $0.68B | 2.6% |
| Corporate and support | $7M | — | −$0.85B | -12200.0% |
- Global advertising +38%, membership fees +17%, eCommerce sales +23%; each is included in reported segment results.
- Operating profit benefited from tariff refunds; management intends price reinvestment in the second half. Do not perpetuate the refund or add a second advertising/member-profit uplift.
- Net income is attributable to Walmart; consolidated income including NCI is 6.529B.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. | Margin | $559B | $474B | $59.78 | 10.4× EBIT | 70% |
| Walmart International | Margin | $161B | $112B | $14.18 | 10.2× EBIT | 72% |
| Sams Club U.S. | Margin | $133B | $72B | $9.09 | 9.7× EBIT | 74% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$51B | −$6.44 | — | 72% |
| Reported noncurrent financial investments at fair valueJuly 31 Note 4: Level 1 equity.860B + Level 2 equity 2.781B + Level 3 debt 1.226B =4.867B, primarily in other long-term assets. Fair-value gains/losses are below operating income. Excludes consolidated Flipkart and all other long-term assets; use the reported dated mark, not a new valuation. | Market mark | — | $4.9B | $0.61 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $854B | $613B | $77.22 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$692B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$0.6B
- Equity value at FY2030$693B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^3.5 years at the cost of equity$531B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$24B
- + investments held outside the businesses$4.9B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$608B
- − borrowings$50B
- − finance leases$6.8B
- − preferred and minority claims$6.6B
- + cash and short-term investments$12B
- + investments held outside the businesses$4.9B
- ÷ diluted shares7.934B
- Signal Ledger valuation$70.63
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $746B | $48B | $30B | $10B | $52B |
| FY2028 | $780B | $60B | $32B | $18B | $43B |
| FY2029 | $816B | $73B | $33B | $26B | $26B |
| FY2030 | $854B | $87B | $35B | $35B | $0.6B cash |
What must be true
- Walmart U.S. grows revenue from $503.1B in FY2027 to $559.4B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Walmart International grows revenue from $138.8B in FY2027 to $161.2B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Sams Club U.S. grows revenue from $103.9B in FY2027 to $133.4B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Walmart U.S. raises its EBIT margin from 5.5% to 9.2%.
- Walmart International raises its EBIT margin from 4.1% to 7.9%.
- Sams Club U.S. raises its EBIT margin from 2.7% to 6.6%.
- The company spends $129.6B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $52.3B in FY2026 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $121.12 at our discount rate, Walmart Inc. would need about $1,439.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 19.2% a year from FY2026) with 8.5% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $854.1B and 8.5% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $121.12 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $1,281.1B | 15.8% | 9.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.69×At research margins | $1,439.6B | 19.2% | 8.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $1,708.2B | 24.4% | 7.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $2,562.3B | 37.7% | 6.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $713.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.4%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.69×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.6% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,439.6B (model: $854.1B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Walmart U.S.
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $1,072.2B (model: $559.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 14.6% (model: 9.2%).
Walmart International
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $793.6B (model: $161.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 25.9% (model: 7.9%).
Sams Club U.S.
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 27.4% (model: 6.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.60%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 27 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027Walmart U.S. | $503.1B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.6% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Walmart U.S. | $559.4B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.6% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Walmart U.S. | 9.2% | Rule | linear path to 9.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexWalmart U.S. | 4.1% | Rule | Latest FY2027 capex guidance is 4% of NET SALES, superseding 3.5%; divide by projected total revenue and retain FY2026 finance-lease additions. Held ratio thereafter; segment capex allocation not disclosed. stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthWalmart U.S. | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Walmart International | $138.8B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.1% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Walmart International | $161.2B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 5.1% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Walmart International | 7.9% | Rule | linear path to 7.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 5.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexWalmart International | 4.1% | Rule | Latest FY2027 capex guidance is 4% of NET SALES, superseding 3.5%; divide by projected total revenue and retain FY2026 finance-lease additions. Held ratio thereafter; segment capex allocation not disclosed. stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthWalmart International | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Sams Club U.S. | $103.9B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.7% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Sams Club U.S. | $133.4B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.7% stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Sams Club U.S. | 6.6% | Rule | linear path to 6.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSams Club U.S. | 4.1% | Rule | Latest FY2027 capex guidance is 4% of NET SALES, superseding 3.5%; divide by projected total revenue and retain FY2026 finance-lease additions. Held ratio thereafter; segment capex allocation not disclosed. stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthSams Club U.S. | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 0.4% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$2.742B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $735.7660000000001B (2026-07-31, 2026-04-30, 2026-01-31, 2025-10-31), annual base $713.127B SEC XBRL 2026-07-31, 2026-04-30, 2026-01-31, 2025-10-31 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 0.4% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$2.742B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $735.7660000000001B (2026-07-31, 2026-04-30, 2026-01-31, 2025-10-31), annual base $713.127B SEC XBRL 2026-07-31, 2026-04-30, 2026-01-31, 2025-10-31 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.60% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 24.0% | Guidance | FY2027 effective tax-rate guidance midpoint of 23.5%-24.5%. stock.walmart.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $11.5B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000104169-26-000154 (filed 2026-08-28) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $50.4B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings + us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000104169-26-000154 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000104169-26-000154 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $6.8B | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityCurrent + us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityNoncurrent · 0000104169-26-000154 (filed 2026-08-28) |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $6.6B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000104169-26-000154 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0000104169-26-000154 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 7.934B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-08-26 cover page of 10-Q 0000104169-26-000154 |
| Reported noncurrent financial investments at fair valueNon-operating assets | $4.9B | Reported | July 31 Note 4: Level 1 equity.860B + Level 2 equity 2.781B + Level 3 debt 1.226B =4.867B, primarily in other long-term assets. Fair-value gains/losses are below operating income. Excludes consolidated Flipkart and all other long-term assets; use the reported dated mark, not a new valuation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $7.7B | Reported | Trailing four paid installments through latest reported quarter 2026-07-31: 2 × $0.235 + 2 × $0.2475 = $0.965. FY2027 forward annual dividend is $0.99; neither declaration amount is a trailing-quarter amount. × 7.934B shares corporate.walmart.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 7.978B quarter 2026-05-01..2026-07-31 · 0000104169-26-000154; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $2.7B a year (0.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.6%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →