Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · VZ
Verizon Communications Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $459B
- FY2030 revenue
- $150B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $4.48 · 17×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.46% · 10.62%
How this is built. No dated FY2030 group revenue target is verified; use cited FactSet company revenue consensus with explicit segment allocation and the existing GAAP segment-margin rule. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Jul 24, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | $26.2B | −2% | $8.03B | 30.6% |
| Business | $7.16B | +3% | $0.99B | 13.9% |
- Consolidated revenue 34.253B declined 0.7%; mobility+broadband service approximately 23.4B grew 2.8%, equipment revenue fell 19.7%.
- GAAP operating income 7.179B and net income attributable to Verizon 3.835B; consolidated NI including NCI3.949B. DilutedEPS.92 versus adjustedEPS1.30.
- Broadband net additions 348,000, including FWA193,000 and fiber 155,000; postpaid phone net additions 184,000.
- Raised FY2026 service growth 2.5-3.0%, adjustedEPS4.99-5.04, FCF growth 9-10%; cash capex 16.0-16.5B unchanged. Q3 results scheduledOctober 26; not yet reported.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer | Margin | $118B | $469B | $112.96 | 15.1× EBIT | 65% |
| Business | Margin | $29B | $32B | $7.69 | 13.3× EBIT | 61% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$82B | −$19.78 | — | 68% |
| All businesses | $150B | $419B | $100.86 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$459B
- Less net debt at FY2030$143B
- Equity value at FY2030$316B
- ÷ (1 + 10.62%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$200B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$42B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 4.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$419B
- − borrowings$166B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$1.3B
- + cash and short-term investments$1.8B
- ÷ diluted shares4.155B
- Signal Ledger valuation$61.01
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $137B | $44B | $17B | $21B | $164B |
| FY2027 | $140B | $46B | $18B | $22B | $160B |
| FY2028 | $143B | $47B | $18B | $23B | $156B |
| FY2029 | $146B | $49B | $19B | $24B | $150B |
| FY2030 | $150B | $50B | $19B | $24B | $143B |
What must be true
- Consumer grows revenue from $105.2B in FY2026 to $118.3B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Business holds revenue roughly flat, from $29.8B in FY2026 to $29.1B in FY2030.
- Consumer raises its EBIT margin from 27.7% to 28.9%.
- Business holds its EBIT margin at 8.7%.
- The company spends $90.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $165.6B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $45.20 is about $121.9B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 2.5% a year from FY2026) with 24.9% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $147.4B and 24.9% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $45.20 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.83×At research margins | $121.9B | −2.5% | 24.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $221.1B | 13.1% | 16.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $294.8B | 21.6% | 13.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $442.2B | 34.5% | 10.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $135B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.5%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.83×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.5% WACC · 10.6% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $121.9B (model: $147.4B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Consumer
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $98.5B (model: $118.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 24.8% (model: 28.9%).
Business
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 10.62%
- WACC
- 7.46%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.35 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.88 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 48 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Consumer | $105.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.5% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Consumer | $118.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Consumer | 28.9% | Rule | linear path to 28.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 1.1399 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexConsumer | 12.9% | Rule | Allocate full FY2026 cash capex guidance midpoint 16.25B plus assumed FY2025 finance-lease additions 1.104B pro rata to modeled Consumer+Business FY2026 revenue 135.007445B:12.854106%. No corporate capex duplication. Historical net PP&E D&A proxy(18.349-.760)/135.876=12.944889%; cap maintenance D&A addback at the reinvestment rate for section 3.1, explicitly conservative. This is not reported GAAP D&A: acquired amortization remains expensed, no separate addback; forecast lease additions are an assumption, not cash guidance. Beyond FY2026 hold the ratio as a research maintenance convention. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthConsumer | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Business | $29.8B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 2.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Business | $29.1B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -0.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Business | 8.7% | Rule | linear path to 8.7% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBusiness | 12.9% | Rule | Allocate full FY2026 cash capex guidance midpoint 16.25B plus assumed FY2025 finance-lease additions 1.104B pro rata to modeled Consumer+Business FY2026 revenue 135.007445B:12.854106%. No corporate capex duplication. Historical net PP&E D&A proxy(18.349-.760)/135.876=12.944889%; cap maintenance D&A addback at the reinvestment rate for section 3.1, explicitly conservative. This is not reported GAAP D&A: acquired amortization remains expensed, no separate addback; forecast lease additions are an assumption, not cash guidance. Beyond FY2026 hold the ratio as a research maintenance convention. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBusiness | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 3.6% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$4.882B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $136.318B (2026-06-30, 2026-03-31, 2025-12-31, 2025-09-30), annual base $135.876B SEC XBRL 2026-06-30, 2026-03-31, 2025-12-31, 2025-09-30 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 3.6% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$4.882B; grows with the lines' revenue; §4.3.2 G3 same-quarter TTM driver base $136.318B (2026-06-30, 2026-03-31, 2025-12-31, 2025-09-30), annual base $135.876B SEC XBRL 2026-06-30, 2026-03-31, 2025-12-31, 2025-09-30 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.46% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 10.62% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.35 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.88 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 22.3% | Reported | FY2025 GAAP effective tax 22.3% used as normalized operating-tax proxy. Three-year cash tax/pretax arithmetic average is 18.032349% from 3.581/22.672,5.632/22.979,2.343/16.987;2023 pretax denominator was reduced by nondeductible 5.8B goodwill impairment, so section 4.5 permits GAAP replacement with explanation. Q2 GAAP25.1% includes nondeductible held-for-sale loss. No adjusted-EPS tax shield automatically applied to GAAP EBIT; normalization remains an assumption about recurring taxation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 revenue eliminations.327B held constant; gross Consumer 106.807B+Business 29.069B+other 2.642B-.327B=138.191B historically. Future scope may change after international-wireline disposal. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately disclosed net internal operating-profit elimination: segment operating income reconciles through corporate/specialitems; assume 0, do not remove an invented intersegment gross margin. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2026Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2027Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2028Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2029Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2030Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2031Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2032Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2033Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2034Consolidation | $2.6B | Rule | FY2025 Corporate and other revenue 2.642B held flat; includes insurance/development businesses, whose net operating result already enters unallocated costs. No separate profit or financial-equity value added. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $1.8B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000732712-26-000046 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $166.1B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; Conservative carry-forward of the reported 2024-12-31 tower financing liability to the 2026-06-30 bridge: no newer carrying balance or original-filing proof of inclusion in extracted borrowings/finance leases was found. Retain the original amount unchanged as an additional debt deduction once; possible overlap is not asserted away. This is not a reported 2026-06-30 balance, and rent, proceeds and sublease payments are not used to estimate it. sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases not separately tagged; retained inside combined debt, with no additional lease deduction balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $1.3B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000732712-26-000046 (filed 2026-07-31) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 4.155B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000732712-26-000046 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $11.6B | Reported | Last four paid quarters as ofOctober 20,2026: November 3,2025 .69;February 2,2026 .69;May 1 .7075;August 3 .7075 =2.795. November 2,2026 .7075 is declared but unpaid and excluded. × 4.155B shares verizon.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 4.171B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000732712-26-000046; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $4.9B a year (3.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 10.62% (β 1.35 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.88 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 7.5%
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.884, net debt/EBITDA 3.67, β_lev 1.350, β 0.800 → 1.350; D $166.06B, E $187.80B, cash $1.75B, base EBITDA $44.75B
- Consumer: FY2030 margin set to 28.9% instead of 31.7% (§4.3 E2: 1.1399 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Business: FY2030 margin set to 8.7% instead of 12.7% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →