Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · TXN
Texas Instruments Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $107B
- FY2030 revenue
- $25B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.18 · 14×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.54% · 9.87%
How this is built. No dated management revenue target; FY2030 uses disclosed historical core-market growth and explicit mid-cycle segment normalization, with management capex guidance. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 21, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | $4.91B | +32% | $2.50B | 51.0% |
| Embedded Processing | $0.86B | +21% | $0.23B | 26.5% |
| Other | $0.29B | −6% | $0.14B | 49.7% |
- Revenue grew 28% YoY; GAAP operating margin 47.5%.
- Q4 revenue guide$5.80–6.30B; FY2026 derived total$22.393B.
- Q3 gross capex$0.463B; TTM$2.578B. TTM FCF$8.422B includes$1.104B CHIPS cash incentives.
- Latest complete SEC10-Q remains June 30; the release rounds point-in-time shares to millions. No mixed-date balance override or invented exact September share count.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analog | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $21B | $95B | $103.56 | 9.1× EBITDA | 55% |
| Embedded Processing | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $3.6B | $4.9B | $5.36 | 5.0× EBITDA | 55% |
| Other | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $1B | $2.6B | $2.80 | 5.9× EBITDA | 52% |
| All businesses | $25B | $102B | $111.72 |
Analog: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 53.5% EBITDA a year against a 17.9% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.81 today after paying for its equipment.
Embedded Processing: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 23.7% EBITDA a year against a 17.9% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $0.33 today after paying for its equipment.
Other: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 28.1% EBITDA a year against a 17.9% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $0.78 today after paying for its equipment.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$107B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$6.8B
- Equity value at FY2030$114B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$75B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$19B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.2%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$102B
- − borrowings$14B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$7B
- ÷ diluted shares0.913B
- Signal Ledger valuation$104.00
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $22B | $10B | $2.5B | $6.6B | $6.6B |
| FY2027 | $23B | $11B | $0.9B | $8.8B | $3.3B |
| FY2028 | $24B | $11B | $1.6B | $8.5B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $24B | $12B | $1.4B | $9.2B | $4B cash |
| FY2030 | $25B | $12B | $3.2B | $7.9B | $6.8B cash |
What must be true
- Analog grows revenue from $18.2B in FY2026 to $20.6B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Embedded Processing grows revenue from $3.3B in FY2026 to $3.6B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Other grows revenue from $0.9B in FY2026 to $1.0B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Analog raises its EBITDA margin from 49.5% to 53.5%.
- Embedded Processing raises its EBITDA margin from 22.1% to 26.1%.
- Other holds its EBITDA margin at 42.2%.
- The company spends $9.5B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $7.1B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
- Analog earns 53.5% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 17.9% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- Embedded Processing earns 23.7% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 17.9% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- Other earns 28.1% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 17.9% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
To reach $279.50 at our discount rate, Texas Instruments Inc would need about $76.7B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 36.1% a year from FY2026) with 49.1% EBITDA margin — versus $25.2B and 49.1% EBITDA margin in our research.
At the research price of $279.50 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $37.8B | 13.9% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.00× | $50.3B | 22.4% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 3.00× | $75.5B | 35.5% | 49.6% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.05×At research margins | $76.7B | 36.1% | 49.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $22.4B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 4.9%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 3.05×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.5% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $76.7B (model: $25.2B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Analog
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $59.8B (model: $20.6B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 121.3% (model: 53.5%).
Embedded Processing
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Other
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.54%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 41 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Analog | $18.2B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 30.0% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Analog | $20.6B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.1% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Analog | 53.5% | Rule | linear path to 53.5% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Analog | 1.0 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.05 investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeAnalog | 9 years | Rule | server life 8 years + 1 for long-lived assets sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026Analog | $2.0B | Guidance | FY2026 gross company capex $2-3B midpoint, supersedes earlier $2-5B range; before pool allocation and CHIPS benefits. × 0.7921049655016401 pool share investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthAnalog | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Embedded Processing | $3.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 21.0% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Embedded Processing | $3.6B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 2.5% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Embedded Processing | 26.1% | Rule | linear path to 26.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 6.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Embedded Processing | 1.1 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.13 investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeEmbedded Processing | 9 years | Rule | server life 8 years + 1 for long-lived assets sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026Embedded Processing | $0.4B | Guidance | FY2026 gross company capex $2-3B midpoint, supersedes earlier $2-5B range; before pool allocation and CHIPS benefits. × 0.15252799457074992 pool share investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthEmbedded Processing | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Other | $0.9B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -5.9% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Other | $1.0B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.5% investor.ti.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Other | 42.2% | Rule | linear path to 42.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Other | 1.5 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 1.47 investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeOther | 9 years | Rule | server life 8 years + 1 for long-lived assets sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026Other | $0.1B | Guidance | FY2026 gross company capex $2-3B midpoint, supersedes earlier $2-5B range; before pool allocation and CHIPS benefits. × 0.05536703992761 pool share investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthOther | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-06-30Analog | $8.289000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 reported Analog revenue, USD billions; same scope as the modeled segment and T0. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-06-30Analog | $3.630000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 GAAP operating profit for Analog; includes SBC and is not forecast margin × sales. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-06-30Analog | $0.861810B | Rule | Company reported YTD depreciationB 1.088B × existing pool share 0.7921049655016401; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 PP&E depreciation $1,088M, consistent with the existing PPE-only EBITDA proxy. Separate capitalized-software amortization $42M is not added; total cash-flow D&A would be $1,130M. No segment depreciation is reported; allocation retains existing pool shares.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD capex through 2026-06-30Analog | $0.942605B | Rule | Company reported YTD capexB 1.19B × existing pool share 0.7921049655016401; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 cash-flow statement: gross additions to property, plant and equipment $1,190M. CHIPS proceeds $1,104M and PP&E sales $37M are separate, not netted. Existing FY2025 segment-sales pool shares allocate this company amount once.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-06-30Embedded Processing | $1.511000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 reported Embedded Processing revenue, USD billions; same scope as the modeled segment and T0. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-06-30Embedded Processing | $0.290000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 GAAP operating profit for Embedded Processing; includes SBC and is not forecast margin × sales. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-06-30Embedded Processing | $0.165950B | Rule | Company reported YTD depreciationB 1.088B × existing pool share 0.15252799457074992; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 PP&E depreciation $1,088M, consistent with the existing PPE-only EBITDA proxy. Separate capitalized-software amortization $42M is not added; total cash-flow D&A would be $1,130M. No segment depreciation is reported; allocation retains existing pool shares.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD capex through 2026-06-30Embedded Processing | $0.181508B | Rule | Company reported YTD capexB 1.19B × existing pool share 0.15252799457074992; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 cash-flow statement: gross additions to property, plant and equipment $1,190M. CHIPS proceeds $1,104M and PP&E sales $37M are separate, not netted. Existing FY2025 segment-sales pool shares allocate this company amount once.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD revenue through 2026-06-30Other | $0.488000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 reported Other revenue, USD billions; same scope as the modeled segment and T0. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD GAAP operating profit through 2026-06-30Other | $0.198000B | Reported | Note 1 segment table, H1 GAAP operating profit for Other; includes SBC and is not forecast margin × sales. sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD D&A through 2026-06-30Other | $0.060239B | Rule | Company reported YTD depreciationB 1.088B × existing pool share 0.05536703992761; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 PP&E depreciation $1,088M, consistent with the existing PPE-only EBITDA proxy. Separate capitalized-software amortization $42M is not added; total cash-flow D&A would be $1,130M. No segment depreciation is reported; allocation retains existing pool shares.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| YTD capex through 2026-06-30Other | $0.065887B | Rule | Company reported YTD capexB 1.19B × existing pool share 0.05536703992761; allocated once, not a reported segment amount. H1 cash-flow statement: gross additions to property, plant and equipment $1,190M. CHIPS proceeds $1,104M and PP&E sales $37M are separate, not netted. Existing FY2025 segment-sales pool shares allocate this company amount once.; allocation: Company capex allocated by FY2025 segment sales because no segment asset allocation exists; pools sum to 100%, no duplicate company spending. (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/97476/000009747626000059/txn-20251231.htm) sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.54% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 13.0% | Guidance | Latest Q3 2026 effective tax guidance 13%. investor.ti.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $7.0B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $14.1B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:CommercialPaper + us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0000097476-26-000152 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000097476-26-000152 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.913B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-15 cover page of 10-Q 0000097476-26-000152 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $5.2B | Reported | Last four paid quarters through 2026-10-20 each $1.42. Newly declared $1.52 begins November and is not counted before payment. × 0.913B shares investor.ti.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.92B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000097476-26-000152; point-in-time denominator retained
- Analog: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- Embedded Processing: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- Other: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- Analog: dated YTD inputs through 2026-06-30; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- Embedded Processing: dated YTD inputs through 2026-06-30; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- Other: dated YTD inputs through 2026-06-30; omitted metrics retain estimates, company capital-pool amounts allocated once
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.5%
- Analog: k 1 (calibrated 1.05), life 9 years
- Embedded Processing: k 1.1 (calibrated 1.13), life 9 years
- Other: k 1.5 (calibrated 1.47), life 9 years
- Other: FY2030 margin set to 42.2% instead of 46.2% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 0.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →