Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets, plus our judgment calls): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $1,683B
- FY2030 revenue
- $476B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $24.02 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.96% · 9.00%
How this is built. Management sets no usable targets, so each business is built from cited consensus, company plans and peers, with the judgment calls listed below. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 21, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | $20.6B | −3% | — | — |
| Energy generation and storage | $2.88B | −16% | — | — |
| Services and other | $4.61B | +33% | — | — |
- Deliveries 486,532 (−2% year over year); storage deployed 13.7 GWh (+10%).
- Gross margin 19.6% (18.0% a year earlier); operating margin 2.6% as R&D rose 69% to $2.76B.
- Cybercab Robotaxi rides began in Austin on September 3; nearly 2M cumulative unsupervised miles; active FSD subscriptions 1.74M.
- Optimus production began on Fremont high-volume lines; Q3 capex $4.7B, free cash flow $1.5B, cash and investments $45.4B.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicles | Margin | $166B | $130B | $32.77 | 9.0× EBIT | 75% |
| Robotaxi & FSD | Margin | $150B | $707B | $178.84 | 16.2× EBIT | 77% |
| Energy generation and storage | Margin | $60B | $146B | $36.84 | 14.5× EBIT | 72% |
| Optimus | Margin | $100B | $252B | $63.68 | 13.9× EBIT | 77% |
| SpaceX stakefair value at 2026-06-30 (after a $238M marketability discount); held in other non-current assets, so not in the cash already counted | Market mark | — | $3B | $0.76 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $476B | $1,237B | $312.89 |
Our judgment calls
Where the evidence leaves room for judgment, we make the call ourselves and say why (Signal Ledger, Oct 21, 2026). These 4 calls are part of the valuation above; every other input follows the research file and the published rules.
| Assumption | Our call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Discount rate (cost of equity) | 9.0% | Tesla is treated as market-average risk (beta about 1): 3.85% normalised risk-free rate + 1.0 × 5% equity premium ≈ 9%, the same call as for AMD and SpaceX, instead of the 10% the beta cap alone would give; WACC moves down one point with it. |
| Robotaxi & FSD: FY2030 revenue | $150B | About 1.5 million Tesla-operated robotaxis at roughly $80,000 of annual fares each (~$120B) plus ~$30B of FSD subscriptions and licensing. Tesla's 2025 CEO award sets 1 million commercial robotaxis in operation as a milestone (2025 proxy, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925090866/tm252289-12_def14a.htm); Cybercab production and robotaxi expansion were under way in Q2 2026 (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf). Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "We started providing Robotaxi rides using Cybercabs on September 3 in Austin"; Cybercab is in production in Texas with installed capacity above 125,000 a year; active FSD subscriptions 1.74M, up from 1.04M. |
| Optimus: FY2030 revenue (new business) | $100B | About 3 million humanoid robots a year by 2030 at roughly $33,000 each, from three Fremont-size lines: Tesla's Q1 2026 update describes a first Optimus line designed for 1 million units a year (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf), and the 2025 CEO award counts 1 million Optimus robots delivered as a milestone. Operating margin rises from a start-up loss to 25%, below Tesla's best vehicle years; capex 10% and depreciation 5% of revenue. Optimus has no external revenue yet, so the shared rules alone would give it no value. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "Optimus production began in Fremont on our high-volume lines"; Texas lines under construction. |
| Energy generation and storage: FY2030 revenue | $60B | Storage deployments grew 41% year over year to 13.5 GWh in Q2 2026 (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf); compounding ~36% a year from FY2025's $12.8B as Megapack and Megablock capacity expands reaches about $60B in 2030. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm) is mixed: energy revenue fell 16% to $2.88B and deployments rose only 10% to 13.7 GWh, but "Megafactory Texas began production, with planned capacity of 50 GWh", taking installed Megapack capacity to 110 GWh a year; the 2030 figure is kept. |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$1,683B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$130B
- Equity value at FY2030$1,814B
- ÷ (1 + 9.00%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$1,257B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
- + investments held outside the businesses$3B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.9%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$1,234B
- − borrowings$9.3B
- − finance leases$0.3B
- − preferred and minority claims$0.6B
- + cash and short-term investments$45B
- + investments held outside the businesses$3B
- ÷ diluted shares3.953B
- Signal Ledger valuation$321.83
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $102B | $8.9B | $10B | −$2B | $35B cash |
| FY2027 | $128B | $14B | $13B | −$0.5B | $36B cash |
| FY2028 | $169B | $23B | $17B | $2.7B | $40B cash |
| FY2029 | $251B | $48B | $27B | $15B | $57B cash |
| FY2030 | $476B | $149B | $53B | $72B | $130B cash |
What must be true
- Vehicles grows revenue from $88.0B in FY2026 to $166.0B in FY2030 (1.9×).
- Robotaxi & FSD grows revenue from $2.0B in FY2026 to $150.0B in FY2030 (75.0×).
- Energy generation and storage grows revenue from $12.3B in FY2026 to $60.0B in FY2030 (4.9×).
- Optimus grows revenue from $0.1B in FY2026 to $100.0B in FY2030 (1000.0×).
- Vehicles raises its EBIT margin from 2.6% to 11.7%.
- Robotaxi & FSD raises its EBIT margin from -50.0% to 40.0%.
- Energy generation and storage raises its EBIT margin from 17.6% to 21.6%.
- Optimus raises its EBIT margin from -30.0% to 25.0%.
- The company spends $120.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $35.2B of net cash in FY2026).
What the price implies
To reach $374.58 at our discount rate, Tesla, Inc. would need about $556.7B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 52.7% a year from FY2026) with 24.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $476B and 24.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $374.58 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17×At research margins | $556.7B | 52.7% | 24.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $714B | 62.5% | 20.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $952B | 74.6% | 16.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $1,428B | 93.2% | 13.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $102.4B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.2%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.17×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.0% WACC · 9.0% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $556.7B (model: $476B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Robotaxi & FSD
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $194.2B (model: $150B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 50.3% (model: 40.0%).
Optimus
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $182.8B (model: $100B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 40.4% (model: 25.0%).
Energy generation and storage
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $146.1B (model: $60B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 45.8% (model: 21.6%).
Vehicles
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $432B (model: $166B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 20.5% (model: 11.7%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.00%
- WACC
- 8.96%
Signal Ledger judgment: Tesla is treated as market-average risk (beta about 1): 3.85% normalised risk-free rate + 1.0 × 5% equity premium ≈ 9%, the same call as for AMD and SpaceX, instead of the 10% the beta cap alone would give; WACC moves down one point with it.
Signal Ledger judgment: Tesla is treated as market-average risk (beta about 1): 3.85% normalised risk-free rate + 1.0 × 5% equity premium ≈ 9%, the same call as for AMD and SpaceX, instead of the 10% the beta cap alone would give; WACC moves down one point with it.
Every input, with its source
Show 30 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Vehicles | $88.0B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 7.3% chartmill.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Vehicles | $166.0B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 17.2% chartmill.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Vehicles | 11.7% | Consensus | linear path to 11.7% by FY2030 (management target) chartmill.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexVehicles | 10.0% | Reported | long-run vehicle capex; the 2026 surge (>$25B incl. Terafab and Optimus lines) is noted, not modelled companyAnnual FY2025: capex $8.5B ÷ $94.8B ≈ 9% |
| Terminal growthVehicles | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Robotaxi & FSD | $2.0B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 100.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Robotaxi & FSD | $150.0B | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: About 1.5 million Tesla-operated robotaxis at roughly $80,000 of annual fares each (~$120B) plus ~$30B of FSD subscriptions and licensing. Tesla's 2025 CEO award sets 1 million commercial robotaxis in operation as a milestone (2025 proxy, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925090866/tm252289-12_def14a.htm); Cybercab production and robotaxi expansion were under way in Q2 2026 (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf). Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "We started providing Robotaxi rides using Cybercabs on September 3 in Austin"; Cybercab is in production in Texas with installed capacity above 125,000 a year; active FSD subscriptions 1.74M, up from 1.04M. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Robotaxi & FSD | 40.0% | Peer | linear path to 40.0% by FY2030 (management target) Uber/Lyft take-rate economics without driver pay; Waymo unit cost disclosures |
| Maintenance capexRobotaxi & FSD | 14.0% | Rule | fleet vehicles replaced over ~5 years plus growth fleet build-out |
| Terminal growthRobotaxi & FSD | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Energy generation and storage | $12.3B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth -4.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Energy generation and storage | $60.0B | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: Storage deployments grew 41% year over year to 13.5 GWh in Q2 2026 (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026049213/tsla-20260722-gen.pdf); compounding ~36% a year from FY2025's $12.8B as Megapack and Megablock capacity expands reaches about $60B in 2030. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm) is mixed: energy revenue fell 16% to $2.88B and deployments rose only 10% to 13.7 GWh, but "Megafactory Texas began production, with planned capacity of 50 GWh", taking installed Megapack capacity to 110 GWh a year; the 2030 figure is kept. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Energy generation and storage | 21.6% | Rule | linear path to 21.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 22.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEnergy generation and storage | 9.0% | Reported | company share companyAnnual FY2025 |
| Terminal growthEnergy generation and storage | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Optimus | $0.1B | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: About 3 million humanoid robots a year by 2030 at roughly $33,000 each, from three Fremont-size lines: Tesla's Q1 2026 update describes a first Optimus line designed for 1 million units a year (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf), and the 2025 CEO award counts 1 million Optimus robots delivered as a milestone. Operating margin rises from a start-up loss to 25%, below Tesla's best vehicle years; capex 10% and depreciation 5% of revenue. Optimus has no external revenue yet, so the shared rules alone would give it no value. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "Optimus production began in Fremont on our high-volume lines"; Texas lines under construction. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Optimus | $100.0B | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: About 3 million humanoid robots a year by 2030 at roughly $33,000 each, from three Fremont-size lines: Tesla's Q1 2026 update describes a first Optimus line designed for 1 million units a year (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf), and the 2025 CEO award counts 1 million Optimus robots delivered as a milestone. Operating margin rises from a start-up loss to 25%, below Tesla's best vehicle years; capex 10% and depreciation 5% of revenue. Optimus has no external revenue yet, so the shared rules alone would give it no value. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "Optimus production began in Fremont on our high-volume lines"; Texas lines under construction. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Optimus | 25.0% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: About 3 million humanoid robots a year by 2030 at roughly $33,000 each, from three Fremont-size lines: Tesla's Q1 2026 update describes a first Optimus line designed for 1 million units a year (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf), and the 2025 CEO award counts 1 million Optimus robots delivered as a milestone. Operating margin rises from a start-up loss to 25%, below Tesla's best vehicle years; capex 10% and depreciation 5% of revenue. Optimus has no external revenue yet, so the shared rules alone would give it no value. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "Optimus production began in Fremont on our high-volume lines"; Texas lines under construction. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexOptimus | 10.0% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: About 3 million humanoid robots a year by 2030 at roughly $33,000 each, from three Fremont-size lines: Tesla's Q1 2026 update describes a first Optimus line designed for 1 million units a year (https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026551/tsla-20260422-gen.pdf), and the 2025 CEO award counts 1 million Optimus robots delivered as a milestone. Operating margin rises from a start-up loss to 25%, below Tesla's best vehicle years; capex 10% and depreciation 5% of revenue. Optimus has no external revenue yet, so the shared rules alone would give it no value. Q3 2026 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/000162828026066738/exhibit9914.htm): "Optimus production began in Fremont on our high-volume lines"; Texas lines under construction. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthOptimus | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.96% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: Tesla is treated as market-average risk (beta about 1): 3.85% normalised risk-free rate + 1.0 × 5% equity premium ≈ 9%, the same call as for AMD and SpaceX, instead of the 10% the beta cap alone would give; WACC moves down one point with it. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.00% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: Tesla is treated as market-average risk (beta about 1): 3.85% normalised risk-free rate + 1.0 × 5% equity premium ≈ 9%, the same call as for AMD and SpaceX, instead of the 10% the beta cap alone would give; WACC moves down one point with it. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | statutory rate; Tesla's recent effective rates swing with valuation allowances 26 U.S.C. §11(b) |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $45.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $9.3B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; finance leases already included in combined debt tags removed and deducted separately tsla:LongTermDebtAndFinanceLeasesCurrent · 0001628280-26-066775 + tsla:LongTermDebtAndFinanceLeasesNoncurrent · 0001628280-26-066775 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.3B | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityCurrent + us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityNoncurrent · 0001628280-26-066775 (filed 2026-10-22) |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $0.6B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value, including separately reported redeemable noncontrolling equity (not preferred stock) us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001628280-26-066775 + us-gaap:RedeemableNoncontrollingInterestEquityCarryingAmount · 0001628280-26-066775 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 3.953B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-15 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-066775 |
| SpaceX stakeNon-operating assets | $3.0B | Reported | fair value at 2026-06-30 (after a $238M marketability discount); held in other non-current assets, so not in the cash already counted sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | none × 3.953B shares no dividends |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 3.541B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0001628280-26-066775; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.8%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics, with our stated judgment calls, because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →