Signal Ledger valuation · RTX
RTX Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $308B
- FY2030 revenue
- $123B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $10.65 · 22×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.34% · 7.87%
How this is built. No current public dated long-range sales target beyond expired 2025 framework located; use latest FY2026 guidance and cited FY2030 FactSet sales/EBIT consensus with explicit segment allocation and intersegment reconciliation. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 20, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Aerospace | $8.38B | +10% | $1.79B | 21.3% |
| Pratt & Whitney | $9.23B | +10% | $0.61B | 6.6% |
| Raytheon | $8.03B | +14% | $1.13B | 14.1% |
- Sales rose 11% reported/12% organically; backlog 340B comprises 176B commercial and 164B defense.
- Adjusted FY2026 sales outlook 97.0-97.5B and FCF9.0-9.2B raised.
- Adjusted EPS2.26 includes 0.25 IEEPA cost recovery; GAAP EPS1.89.
- Gross segment sales 25.644B reconcile to consolidated 24.965B after net eliminations/other 0.679B.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Aerospace | Margin | $42B | $125B | $92.36 | 17.6× EBIT | 68% |
| Pratt & Whitney | Margin | $46B | $69B | $50.78 | 16.1× EBIT | 69% |
| Raytheon | Margin | $39B | $83B | $61.22 | 16.9× EBIT | 69% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$4.9B | −$3.65 | — | 72% |
| All businesses | $123B | $271B | $200.72 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$308B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$1.3B
- Equity value at FY2030$309B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$224B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$14B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$271B
- − borrowings$37B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$1.7B
- + cash and short-term investments$9.2B
- ÷ diluted shares1.349B
- Signal Ledger valuation$178.54
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $97B | $14B | $2.9B | $9B | $29B |
| FY2027 | $103B | $16B | $3.1B | $10B | $24B |
| FY2028 | $109B | $17B | $3.3B | $11B | $17B |
| FY2029 | $116B | $19B | $3.5B | $13B | $8.7B |
| FY2030 | $123B | $21B | $3.7B | $14B | $1.3B cash |
What must be true
- Collins Aerospace grows revenue from $33.2B in FY2026 to $41.9B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Pratt & Whitney grows revenue from $36.1B in FY2026 to $45.5B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Raytheon grows revenue from $30.8B in FY2026 to $38.8B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Collins Aerospace raises its EBIT margin from 16.3% to 19.1%.
- Pratt & Whitney raises its EBIT margin from 7.9% to 10.7%.
- Raytheon raises its EBIT margin from 11.5% to 14.3%.
- The company spends $16.5B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $29.9B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $194.71 at our discount rate, RTX Corp would need about $137.1B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 8.2% a year from FY2026) with 14.6% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $126.3B and 14.6% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $194.71 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09×At research margins | $137.1B | 8.2% | 14.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $189.4B | 17.3% | 10.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $252.5B | 26.0% | 8.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $378.8B | 39.5% | 6.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $100.1B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.09×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.3% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $137.1B (model: $126.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Collins Aerospace
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $49.4B (model: $41.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 22.4% (model: 19.1%).
Raytheon
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $49.4B (model: $38.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 17.9% (model: 14.3%).
Pratt & Whitney
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $60.5B (model: $45.5B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 13.8% (model: 10.7%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.34%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 53 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Collins Aerospace | $33.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 10.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Collins Aerospace | $41.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Collins Aerospace | 19.1% | Consensus | linear path to 19.1% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexCollins Aerospace | 3.0% | Rule | capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1); original capex 0.028411940276991194: FY2025 segment cash capex plus pro-rata corporate capex 0.196B; total company 2.627B, below 15% threshold. Replacement/growth capex proxy, no extra acquisition capex.; equipment D&A: FY2025 segment D&A plus pro-rata corporate D&A0.094B; total operating D&A2.295B excludes acquisition-accounting amortization 2.083B, also excluded from corporate cash cost. No acquired-amortization addback.; excludes separately modeled acquired amortization sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthCollins Aerospace | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Pratt & Whitney | $36.1B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 9.6% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Pratt & Whitney | $45.5B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Pratt & Whitney | 10.7% | Consensus | linear path to 10.7% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexPratt & Whitney | 3.2% | Rule | FY2025 segment cash capex plus pro-rata corporate capex 0.196B; total company 2.627B, below 15% threshold. Replacement/growth capex proxy, no extra acquisition capex. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthPratt & Whitney | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Raytheon | $30.8B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 9.8% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Raytheon | $38.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.0% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Raytheon | 14.3% | Consensus | linear path to 14.3% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexRaytheon | 2.5% | Rule | FY2025 segment cash capex plus pro-rata corporate capex 0.196B; total company 2.627B, below 15% threshold. Replacement/growth capex proxy, no extra acquisition capex. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthRaytheon | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 0.2% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.194B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 0.2% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.194B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.34% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 19.1% | Reported | FY2024 and FY2025 GAAP ETR both 19.1%; stable GAAP anchor because 2023 Powder Metal charge and tax reorganizations/audit settlements distort cash taxes/pretax. Not lower adjusted ETR; operating EBIT excludes non-service pension income. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $3.0B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $3.2B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $3.4B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $3.6B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $3.8B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $4.1B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $4.3B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $4.5B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $4.7B | Rule | FY2025 intersegment sales 2.762B /gross segment 91.155B held as a future ratio; revenue elimination only, not an invented deduction of the entire internal gross profit. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.0B | Rule | No separately sourced recurring unrealized internal-profit elimination; net Other/elimination EBIT0.054B retained once in corporate-cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2026Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2027Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2028Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2029Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2030Consolidation | $0.2B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2031Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2032Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2033Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2034Consolidation | $0.3B | Rule | FY2025 Other external sales 0.210B assumed 3% nominal growth; its net EBIT contribution retained in company-cost reconciliation, no invented profit line. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $9.2B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; excluded us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent $0.707B: Marketable securities held in trusts $ 707 $ 750 sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $37.4B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligationsCurrent · 0000101829-26-000031 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 0000101829-26-000031 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases not separately tagged; retained inside combined debt, with no additional lease deduction balance sheet 2026-09-30 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $1.7B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000101829-26-000031 (filed 2026-10-20) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.349B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000101829-26-000031 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $3.8B | Reported | PaidDec 2025 0.68 +Mar 2026 0.68 +Jun 2026 0.73 +Sep 2026 0.73=2.82, not forward annual 2.92. × 1.349B shares investors.rtx.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.3681B quarter 2026-07-01..2026-09-30 · 0000101829-26-000031; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.2B a year (0.2% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.3%
- Collins Aerospace: capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1)
- Collins Aerospace: capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →