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Signal Ledger valuation · REGN

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$1,236.89+51% vs $819.09
Business value at FY2030
$146B
FY2030 revenue
$26B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$65.63 · 25×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
7.68% · 7.87%

How this is built. No dated long-range management revenue target; latest reported total-revenue growth feeds the uniform rules, with EYLEA erosion and unapproved-pipeline uncertainty disclosed. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0000872589-26-000025 · price $819.09 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026

Reported Jul 30, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$4.29B
Operating income$1.29B30.1% margin
Net income$1.30B
Diluted EPS$12.23
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Regeneron medicines$4.29B+17%$1.29B30.1%
  • U.S. EYLEA HD $596.3M and EYLEA $412.2M: combined $1,008.5M vs $1,147.5M, down 12.1%.
  • Sanofi records global Dupixent sales; Regeneron records its profit share within collaboration revenue, not non-operating income.
  • Sanofi development balance was fully repaid at June 30; no longer reduces collaboration revenue from Q3.
  • Q3 earnings are scheduled for October 30,2026 and are not yet reported.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Regeneron medicinesMedicinesMargin$26B$122B$1,185.5319.8× EBIT72%
All businesses$26B$122B$1,185.53

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$146B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$25B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$171B
  4. ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$122B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$1.5B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 3.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$122B
  2. − borrowings$2B
  3. − finance leases$0.7B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$8B
  5. ÷ diluted shares0.103B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$1,236.89

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$17B$4.8B$1B$3.2B$6.7B cash
FY2027$19B$5.7B$1.2B$3.8B$10B cash
FY2028$21B$6.6B$1.3B$4.4B$15B cash
FY2029$23B$7.5B$1.5B$5.1B$20B cash
FY2030$26B$8.3B$1.6B$5.8B$25B cash

What must be true

  • Medicines grows revenue from $16.7B in FY2026 to $25.5B in FY2030 (1.5×).
  • Regeneron medicines raises its EBIT margin from 24.9% to 28.9%.
  • The company spends $6.6B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $5.3B of net cash in FY2025).

What the price implies

At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $819.09 is about $16B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 1.2% a year from FY2026) with 28.9% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $25.5B and 28.9% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $819.09 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
0.63×At research margins$16B−1.2%
28.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$38.3B22.9%
14.4% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$51B32.1%
11.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$76.5B46.2%
8.7% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $16.7B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
10.1%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.7% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
0.63×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $16B (model: $25.5B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Medicines

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $16.4B (model: $25.5B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 19.8% (model: 28.9%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
7.87%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
7.68%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2026Regeneron medicines$16.7BReportedfade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 16.7% sec.gov ↗
Revenue FY2030Regeneron medicines$25.5BReportedfade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% sec.gov ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Regeneron medicines28.9%Rulelinear path to 28.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexRegeneron medicines6.3%ReportedFY2025 cash capital expenditures $0.8984B / consolidated revenue $14.3429B. Latest FY2026 $1.030–1.100B capex guide is disclosed but the ordinary margin-line schema has only a constant maintenance ratio; no unsupported perpetual extrapolation of a one-year budget. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthRegeneron medicines3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates7.68%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates7.87%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates13.5%GuidanceUpdated FY2026 GAAP effective tax rate guidance 13–14%, midpoint 13.5%; replaces uncited 13% assumption. Non-GAAP 14–15% is a different measure. investor.regeneron.com ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$8.0BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0000872589-26-000025 (filed 2026-07-30)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$2.0BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; current liabilities fully tagged and reconciled; no current borrowing line; sec.gov ↗
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.7BReportedfinance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityCurrent + us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiabilityNoncurrent · 0000872589-26-000025 (filed 2026-07-30)
SharesBalance sheet0.103BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-07-23 cover page of 10-Q 0000872589-26-000025 (2 share classes summed)
Dividends per yearShareholders$0.4BReportedLast four paid dividends by October 21: December 2025 $0.88 plus March, June and August 2026 $0.94 each = $3.70. No future increase or repurchase assumption. × 0.103B shares sec.gov ↗ · investor.regeneron.com ↗ · investor.regeneron.com ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.106B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000872589-26-000025; point-in-time denominator retained
  • cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.7%

Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →