Signal Ledger valuation · QCOM
Qualcomm Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 28, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $319B
- FY2030 revenue
- $75B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $17.34 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.46% · 9.87%
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCT semiconductors | Margin | $69B | $336B | $319.86 | 17.5× EBIT | 66% |
| QTL licensing | Margin | $5.4B | $43B | $41.39 | 10.9× EBIT | 53% |
| Other operating revenue | Margin | $1B | $0.4B | $0.42 | 14.8× EBIT | 72% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$117B | −$111.43 | — | 65% |
| All businesses | $75B | $263B | $250.24 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$319B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$34B
- Equity value at FY2030$353B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$236B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$13B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.4%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$263B
- − borrowings$15B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$8.3B
- ÷ diluted shares1.050B
- Signal Ledger valuation$243.61
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $43B | $11B | $1.2B | $9B | $5.7B |
| FY2027 | $49B | $13B | $1.3B | $10B | $0.7B cash |
| FY2028 | $57B | $16B | $1.5B | $12B | $9.2B cash |
| FY2029 | $66B | $18B | $1.8B | $14B | $20B cash |
| FY2030 | $75B | $21B | $2B | $17B | $34B cash |
What must be true
- QCT semiconductors grows revenue from $36.9B in FY2026 to $68.8B in FY2030 (1.9×).
- QTL licensing holds revenue roughly flat, from $5.6B in FY2026 to $5.4B in FY2030.
- Other operating revenue grows revenue from $0.5B in FY2026 to $1.0B in FY2030 (2.2×).
- QCT semiconductors raises its EBIT margin from 30.4% to 34.4%.
- QTL licensing raises its EBIT margin from 72.4% to 76.4%.
- Other operating revenue raises its EBIT margin from 0.0% to 4.0%.
- The company spends $7.8B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $7.0B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $172.83 is about $52.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 5.1% a year from FY2026) with 37.0% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $75.2B and 37.0% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $172.83 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70×At research margins | $52.4B | 5.1% | 37.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $112.9B | 27.4% | 24.2% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $150.5B | 36.9% | 21.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $225.7B | 51.5% | 18.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $42.9B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 11.9%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.70×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.5% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $52.4B (model: $75.2B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
QCT semiconductors
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $46.2B (model: $68.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 27.0% (model: 34.4%).
QTL licensing
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Other operating revenue
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.46%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 25 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026QCT semiconductors | $36.9B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth -3.8% investor.qualcomm.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030QCT semiconductors | $68.8B | Guidance | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 14.7% investor.qualcomm.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030QCT semiconductors | 34.4% | Rule | linear path to 34.4% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.4% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investor.qualcomm.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexQCT semiconductors | 2.7% | Reported | FY2025 company capex $1.192B / $44.284B; allocated by revenue, >2% D&A proxy. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthQCT semiconductors | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026QTL licensing | $5.6B | Rule | hold decline (methodology §4.2), growth -0.5% sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030QTL licensing | $5.4B | Rule | hold decline (methodology §4.2), growth -0.5% sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030QTL licensing | 76.4% | Rule | linear path to 76.4% by FY2030 (+4 points, no cited target: cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexQTL licensing | 2.7% | Reported | FY2025 company capex $1.192B / $44.284B; allocated by revenue, >2% D&A proxy. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthQTL licensing | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Other operating revenue | $0.5B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 35.2% sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Other operating revenue | $1.0B | Rule | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 16.2% sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Other operating revenue | 4.0% | Rule | linear path to 4.0% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 24.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexOther operating revenue | 2.7% | Reported | FY2025 company capex $1.192B / $44.284B; allocated by revenue, >2% D&A proxy. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthOther operating revenue | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 10.8% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Restore ALL costs outside QCT/QTL including SBC, unallocated amortization and nonreportable operating losses, excluding interest and investment gains: TTM segment EBIT proxy QCT $10.855B + QTL $4.120B less TTM consolidated GAAP EBIT $10.219B = $4.756B / TTM revenue $44.069B. Extractor omitted segment profit; this avoids treating EBT segment margins as consolidated EBIT.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 10.8% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Restore ALL costs outside QCT/QTL including SBC, unallocated amortization and nonreportable operating losses, excluding interest and investment gains: TTM segment EBIT proxy QCT $10.855B + QTL $4.120B less TTM consolidated GAAP EBIT $10.219B = $4.756B / TTM revenue $44.069B. Extractor omitted segment profit; this avoids treating EBT segment margins as consolidated EBIT.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.46% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 12.5% | Guidance | Latest fixed estimated non-GAAP effective tax rate 12.5%; use normalized rate rather than FY2025 one-time $5.7B deferred-tax charge. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $8.3B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0000804328-26-000086 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $15.3B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000804328-26-000086 + us-gaap:LongTermDebt (noncurrent row on reconciled consolidated balance sheet) · 0000804328-26-000086 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-28 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.050B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-27 cover page of 10-Q 0000804328-26-000086 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $3.8B | Reported | Last four quarterly dividends through October 20: $0.89 twice and $0.92 twice = $3.62; not forward annualized $3.68. × 1.050B shares investor.qualcomm.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.069B quarter 2026-03-30..2026-06-28 · 0000804328-26-000086; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $4.8B a year (10.8% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.5%
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →