Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · PYPL · AUTO
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on reported data and uniform rules (no analyst has reviewed this company yet): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $124B
- FY2030 revenue
- $41B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.30 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.52% · 9.77%
AUTO. Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reportable Segment | Margin | $41B | $109B | $126.91 | 13.5× EBIT | 61% |
| All businesses | $41B | $109B | $126.91 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$124B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$27B
- Equity value at FY2030$150B
- ÷ (1 + 9.77%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$99B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0.4B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 6.8% — more than our 5% tolerance. Usually the net debt path borrows at a much lower rate than the discount rate assumes; treat the value as less certain.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$109B
- − borrowings$13B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$11B
- ÷ diluted shares0.855B
- Signal Ledger valuation$124.39
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $35B | $7.4B | $1B | $5B | $0.2B cash |
| FY2027 | $36B | $8.1B | $1.1B | $5.5B | $5.6B cash |
| FY2028 | $38B | $8.8B | $1.1B | $6B | $12B cash |
| FY2029 | $39B | $9.5B | $1.2B | $6.6B | $19B cash |
| FY2030 | $41B | $10B | $1.2B | $7.2B | $27B cash |
What must be true
- Reportable Segment grows revenue from $34.6B in FY2026 to $41.0B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Reportable Segment raises its EBIT margin from 18.3% to 22.3%.
- The company spends $5.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $2.2B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $57.54 is about $17.2B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 16.1% a year from FY2026) with 22.3% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $41B and 22.3% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $57.54 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.42×At research margins | $17.2B | −16.1% | 22.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $61.5B | 15.5% | 7.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $82B | 24.1% | 5.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $123B | 37.3% | 3.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $34.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 15.6%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.42×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.5% WACC · 9.8% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $17.2B (model: $41B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Reportable Segment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $18.9B (model: $41B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 10.5% (model: 22.3%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.77%
- WACC
- 8.52%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.18 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Reportable Segment | $34.6B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.3% SEC segmentsAnnual pypl:ReportableSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0001633917-26-000024; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Reportable Segment | $41.0B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 4.3% SEC segmentsAnnual pypl:ReportableSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0001633917-26-000024; SEC 2024-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Reportable Segment | 22.3% | Rule | linear path to 22.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 4.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) SEC segmentsAnnual pypl:ReportableSegmentMember 2025-12-31; SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0001633917-26-000024; ; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexReportable Segment | 3.0% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): historical capex ratio floored at historical D&A ratio (§3.1) SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0001633917-26-000024; us-gaap:DepreciationDepletionAndAmortization 0001633917-26-000024 2025-12-31; Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Terminal growthReportable Segment | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.52% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.77% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.18 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): uniform tax-rate default; no verified effective tax rate in evidence Valuation methodology §9; Automatic estimation rules · Read methodology ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $11.3B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $13.4B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0001633917-26-000082 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001633917-26-000082 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $11M | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0001633917-26-000082 (filed 2026-07-28) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.855B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-22 cover page of 10-Q 0001633917-26-000082 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.1B | Reported | Automatic rule (auto-reported-v 1): latest annual dividend per share held flat × 0.855B shares SEC companyAnnual 2025-12-31; 0001633917-26-000024 |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.882B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001633917-26-000082; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 9.77% (β 1.18 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.5%
- enterprise and equity-chain values differ by 6.8% (limit 5%)
Automatic estimate: reported data and uniform rules only; not reviewed by an analyst. This is a research model, not investment advice. Automatic rules (auto-reported-v1) read SEC reported facts; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →