Signal Ledger valuation · PLTR
Palantir Technologies Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $293B
- FY2030 revenue
- $45B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $6.51 · 22×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.87% · 9.87%
How this is built. No usable public FY2030 management revenue target was verified; total revenue uses dated sell-side consensus and business mix uses Visible Alpha, while segment margins follow the written default after a separate corporate-cost reconciliation. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2026
Reported Aug 3, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | $0.99B | +79% | — | — |
| Commercial | $0.95B | +110% | — | — |
- Revenue grew 93%; US commercial grew 149%; FY2026 total revenue guide $8.150–8.158B.
- GAAP operating margin 47%; adjusted operating margin 62%.
- Government/Commercial contribution was $701.106M/$734.944M, excluding R&D/G&A/SBC; these are not standalone GAAP EBIT, so segment operating income is left null.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | Margin | $18B | $146B | $60.62 | 15.7× EBIT | 67% |
| Commercial | Margin | $28B | $224B | $93.30 | 15.7× EBIT | 69% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$152B | −$63.25 | — | 68% |
| All businesses | $45B | $218B | $90.67 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$293B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$46B
- Equity value at FY2030$340B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$222B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$218B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$0.1B
- + cash and short-term investments$9.4B
- ÷ diluted shares2.403B
- Signal Ledger valuation$94.54
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $8.2B | $3.1B | $0.1B | $2.3B | $11B cash |
| FY2027 | $12B | $4.8B | $0.1B | $3.6B | $15B cash |
| FY2028 | $19B | $7.6B | $0.1B | $5.7B | $21B cash |
| FY2029 | $29B | $12B | $0.2B | $9.1B | $31B cash |
| FY2030 | $45B | $19B | $0.3B | $14B | $46B cash |
What must be true
- Government grows revenue from $4.3B in FY2026 to $17.7B in FY2030 (4.1×).
- Commercial grows revenue from $3.9B in FY2026 to $27.7B in FY2030 (7.2×).
- Government raises its EBIT margin from 65.6% to 69.6%.
- Commercial raises its EBIT margin from 65.9% to 69.9%.
- The company spends $0.9B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $9.3B of net cash in FY2025).
What the price implies
To reach $196.19 at our discount rate, Palantir Technologies Inc. would need about $98.3B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 86.4% a year from FY2026) with 69.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $45.5B and 69.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $196.19 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $68.2B | 70.1% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.00× | $91B | 82.8% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.16×At research margins | $98.3B | 86.4% | 69.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $136.5B | 102.3% | 58.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $8.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 6.5%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 2.16×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.9% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $98.3B (model: $45.5B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Commercial
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $79.2B (model: $27.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 145.9% (model: 69.9%).
Government
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $68.7B (model: $17.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 185.9% (model: 69.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.87%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 21 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Government | $4.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 79.0% chartmill.com ↗ · spglobal.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Government | $17.7B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 42.5% chartmill.com ↗ · spglobal.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Government | 69.6% | Rule | linear path to 69.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 49.2% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.palantir.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexGovernment | 0.8% | Reported | Exact FY2025 cash PPE purchases $33.882M / revenue $4,475.446M, allocated pro rata; capex exceeds depreciation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthGovernment | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Commercial | $3.9B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 85.9% chartmill.com ↗ · spglobal.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Commercial | $27.7B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 63.8% chartmill.com ↗ · spglobal.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Commercial | 69.9% | Rule | linear path to 69.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 68.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) investors.palantir.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexCommercial | 0.8% | Reported | Exact FY2025 cash PPE purchases $33.882M / revenue $4,475.446M, allocated pro rata; capex exceeds depreciation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthCommercial | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 28.5% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Same existing TTM reconciliation with exact amounts: contribution FY2025 $2.942697B - H1 2025 $1.180093B + H1 2026 $2.628417B = $4.391021B. GAAP EBIT $1.414015B - $0.445365B + $1.666002B = $2.634652B. Revenue $4.475446B - $1.887552B + $3.568047B = $6.155941B. All excluded R&D/G&A/SBC cost = $1.756369B / $6.155941B =28.531283%. No excluded economic cost is added back.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 28.5% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: Same existing TTM reconciliation with exact amounts: contribution FY2025 $2.942697B - H1 2025 $1.180093B + H1 2026 $2.628417B = $4.391021B. GAAP EBIT $1.414015B - $0.445365B + $1.666002B = $2.634652B. Revenue $4.475446B - $1.887552B + $3.568047B = $6.155941B. All excluded R&D/G&A/SBC cost = $1.756369B / $6.155941B =28.531283%. No excluded economic cost is added back.; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 23.0% | Guidance | Company estimated long-term effective tax rate used in latest earnings reconciliation, 23%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $9.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:MarketableSecuritiesCurrent · 0001321655-26-000041 (filed 2026-08-04) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; no positive borrowing facts in available SEC observations since 2023-01-01; three full fiscal years checked; balance sheet liabilities fully tagged and reconciled, with no debt row sec.gov ↗ · data.sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $0.1B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001321655-26-000041 (filed 2026-08-04) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 2.403B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-27 cover page of 10-Q 0001321655-26-000041 (3 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | No cash dividends; no future distributions assumed. × 2.403B shares investors.palantir.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 2.568694B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001321655-26-000041; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $1.3B a year (28.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.9%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →