Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · PLD
Prologis, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $207B
- FY2030 revenue
- $14B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $7.45 · 22×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.24% · 9.87%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 15, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Estate Operations | $2.22B | +8% | $1.69B | 76.2% |
| Strategic Capital | $0.16B | +9% | $80M | 48.8% |
- GAAP diluted EPS was $0.86, versus $0.82 a year earlier; Core FFO per diluted share was $1.60, versus $1.49.
- Average occupancy was 95.1%, cash same-store NOI grew 5.9%, and cash rents on commenced leases increased 23.4% (Prologis share).
- FY2026 Core FFO guidance narrowed to $6.25–6.29 per share; net-effective same-store NOI growth guidance is 5.50–6.00% and development starts are $5.0–5.75B (Prologis share).
- Quarter-end available liquidity was approximately $8.8B and debt to adjusted EBITDA was 4.5 times.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Capital | Margin | $1B | $10B | $11.06 | 21.7× EBIT | 69% |
| Logistics real estateReal Estate Operations | Property NOI (cap rate) | $13B | $155B | $165.73 | 22.4× NOI | 89% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$15B | −$16.15 | — | 70% |
| Unconsolidated co-investment ventures (Prologis share, book)venture income is not in the Real Estate Operations NOI | Market mark | — | $11B | $12.05 | — | — |
| Businesses and holdings | $14B | $161B | $172.69 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$207B
- Less net debt at FY2030$57B
- Equity value at FY2030$150B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$98B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$14B
- + investments held outside the businesses$11B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.7%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$150B
- − borrowings$36B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$4.5B
- + cash and short-term investments$1.8B
- + investments held outside the businesses$11B
- ÷ diluted shares0.933B
- Signal Ledger valuation$130.74
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $9.3B | $6.4B | $6.3B | $0.1B | $42B |
| FY2027 | $9.9B | $6.8B | $6.4B | $0.4B | $46B |
| FY2028 | $11B | $7.5B | $6.5B | $1.1B | $51B |
| FY2029 | $12B | $8.4B | $6.6B | $1.8B | $54B |
| FY2030 | $14B | $9.3B | $6.7B | $2.6B | $57B |
What must be true
- Strategic Capital grows revenue from $0.7B in FY2026 to $1.0B in FY2030 (1.5×).
- Real Estate Operations grows revenue from $8.7B in FY2026 to $12.6B in FY2030 (1.5×).
- Strategic Capital raises its EBIT margin from 54.4% to 58.4%.
- The company spends $32.5B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $57.2B in FY2030 and stays financeable.
- Logistics real estate grows net operating income from $6.5B to $9.5B by FY2030, building at a 7.7% yield on cost, and the portfolio is worth NOI at a 5.1% cap rate.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $126.66 is about $0.55B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 4.3% a year from FY2026) with 58.4% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $0.98B and 58.4% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
Sales and margins here cover operating lines only; REIT lines stay fixed. These sales figures are not total company revenue.
At the research price of $126.66 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56×At research margins | $0.55B | −4.3% | 58.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $1.5B | 22.4% | 27.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $2B | 31.5% | 21.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $2.9B | 45.6% | 16.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $0.66B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 8.6%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.56×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.2% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $0.55B (model: $0.98B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Strategic Capital
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $0.57B (model: $0.98B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 36.8% (model: 58.4%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 8.24%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 25 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Strategic Capital | $0.7B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 10.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Strategic Capital | $1.0B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 10.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Strategic Capital | 58.4% | Rule | linear path to 58.4% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 10.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexStrategic Capital | 2.0% | Rule | maintenance default 2% of revenue |
| Terminal growthStrategic Capital | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| NOI FY2026Logistics real estate | $6.5B | Guidance | in-place NOI $6.54B (hold moderate, same-store growth 5.8%, methodology §4.2) + $0.00B from stabilised developments Q3 2026 supplemental, 2026 guidance: same store NOI – net effective – Prologis share 5.50–6.00% |
| NOI FY2030Logistics real estate | $9.5B | Rule | in-place NOI $8.18B (hold moderate, same-store growth 5.8%, methodology §4.2) + $1.31B from stabilised developments Q3 2026 supplemental, 2026 guidance: same store NOI – net effective – Prologis share 5.50–6.00% |
| Development spend a yearLogistics real estate | $5.4B | Guidance | FY2026 development-start guidance held each year (management-targets case, methodology §4.6) Q3 2026 supplemental, 2026 guidance: development starts, Prologis share $5,000–5,750M |
| Development yield on costLogistics real estate | 7.7% | Reported | stabilised yield on 2026 starts ($4.73B TEI, 64% build-to-suit including data centers) Q3 2026 supplemental, Development Starts: year-to-date estimated weighted average stabilized yield 7.7% |
| Recurring capex (share of NOI)Logistics real estate | 14.1% | Reported | property improvements + tenant improvements + leasing commissions ÷ NOI Q3 2026 supplemental, Operating Metrics: total capital expenditures, trailing four quarters 14.1% of operating portfolio NOI |
| Cap rateLogistics real estate | 5.1% | Reported | cap rate at which Prologis sold and contributed stabilised buildings this year Q3 2026 supplemental, Dispositions and Contributions: weighted average stabilized cap rate 5.1% (year to date) |
| Terminal growthLogistics real estate | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 5.9% | Guidance | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: rule 17: the unallocated difference includes real-estate depreciation, so cash G&A ($520M midpoint) ÷ trailing revenue $9.19B is used; grows with the lines' revenue Q3 2026 supplemental, 2026 guidance: general & administrative expenses $515–525M |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 5.9% | Guidance | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: rule 17: the unallocated difference includes real-estate depreciation, so cash G&A ($520M midpoint) ÷ trailing revenue $9.19B is used; grows with the lines' revenue Q3 2026 supplemental, 2026 guidance: general & administrative expenses $515–525M |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.24% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 7.7% | Reported | REIT effective tax rate (taxes in non-REIT subsidiaries and abroad) Q3 2026 supplemental, income statement: nine-month current + deferred income tax $254.1M on earnings before taxes $3,302.8M |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $1.8B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0001193125-26-323746 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $36.4B | Reported | total long-term debt (includes the current portion) plus short-term borrowings beyond it us-gaap:LongTermDebt · 0001193125-26-323746 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Preferred stockBalance sheet | $63.948M | Reported | preferred stock at carrying value (no liquidation preference tagged) us-gaap:PreferredStockValue · 0001193125-26-323746 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $4.4B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001193125-26-323746 (filed 2026-07-29) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.933B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24 cover page of 10-Q 0001193125-26-323746 |
| Unconsolidated co-investment ventures (Prologis share, book)Non-operating assets | $11.2B | Reported | rule 11: venture income is not in the Real Estate Operations NOI us-gaap:RealEstateInvestmentsUnconsolidatedRealEstateAndOtherJointVentures at 2026-03-31 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $3.9B | Reported | last four quarters × 0.933B shares Prologis dividend declarations: $1.01 (Q4 2025), $1.07 (Q1–Q3 2026) |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.957884B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001193125-26-323746; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.5B a year (5.7% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.2%
- Logistics real estate: NOI $6.54B in FY2026 → $9.50B in FY2030, development $5.4B a year at 7.7% yield, cap rate 5.10% (methodology §3.8)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →