Signal Ledger valuation · PFE
Pfizer Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 28, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $241B
- FY2030 revenue
- $53B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $2.48 · 15×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 6.71% · 7.87%
How this is built. No current consolidated FY2030 dollar target located; historical acquisition and pipeline ambitions do not reconcile the current post-COVID portfolio and 2026-2028 exclusivity losses. Use FactSet consensusFY2030 sales 53.356B, while retaining reported segment economics and explicit corporate costs. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Aug 4, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 28, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharma | $14.7B | +2% | — | — |
| Other business activities | $0.37B | +7% | — | — |
- Revenue 15.034B; GAAP attributable loss 248M and dilutedEPS-.04; adjustedEPS uses a different measure.
- Operating income 3.063B is derived from reported pretaxloss-.653B plus reportedOtherdeductions 3.716B; Pfizer does not separately print an operating-income subtotal.
- FY2026 revenue guide raised to 60.5-62.5B; additional 2.5Bnetproductivity savings anticipated 2027-2029.
- Segment profit is reported asEBT; operatingIncomeB is leftnull rather than displayingEBT asEBIT.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biopharma | Margin | $52B | $372B | $65.34 | 14.5× EBIT | 63% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$134B | −$23.53 | — | 66% |
| All businesses | $53B | $238B | $41.81 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$241B
- Less net debt at FY2030$36B
- Equity value at FY2030$205B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$146B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$37B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.7%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$238B
- − borrowings$63B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$0.3B
- + cash and short-term investments$12B
- ÷ diluted shares5.700B
- Signal Ledger valuation$32.72
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $62B | $20B | $2.6B | $15B | $50B |
| FY2027 | $59B | $20B | $2.5B | $15B | $47B |
| FY2028 | $57B | $20B | $2.4B | $15B | $43B |
| FY2029 | $55B | $20B | $2.3B | $15B | $40B |
| FY2030 | $53B | $20B | $2.2B | $15B | $36B |
What must be true
- Biopharma revenue shrinks from $60.0B in FY2026 to $51.8B in FY2030 (-13.8%).
- Biopharma raises its EBIT margin from 47.0% to 51.0%.
- The company spends $12.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $51.8B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $30.42 is about $48.5B of FY2030 sales (a decline of about 5.2% a year from FY2026) with 51.0% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $51.8B and 51.0% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $30.42 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.94×At research margins | $48.5B | −5.2% | 51.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $77.6B | 6.6% | 40.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $103.5B | 14.6% | 35.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $155.3B | 26.8% | 30.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $60B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.94×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 6.7% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $48.5B (model: $51.8B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Biopharma
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $48.8B (model: $51.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 49.3% (model: 51.0%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 6.71%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 52 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Biopharma | $60.0B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.9% finanzen.net ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Biopharma | $51.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -3.6% finanzen.net ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Biopharma | 51.0% | Rule | linear path to 51.0% by FY2030 (+4 points, no cited target: cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexBiopharma | 4.3% | Rule | Allocate all FY2025 company PP&E spending 2.629B to sole modeled reportable line once; includes smallother/corporate facilities. Below 15%; acquisitions excluded. Entire spend retained as reinvestment, not claimed to be solelymaintenance. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthBiopharma | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 15.8% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $9.643B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 15.8% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $9.643B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 6.71% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 15.0% | Guidance | Latest FY2026 effective tax guide on adjusted income approximately 15%. Three-year cash-tax/GAAP-pretax mean is about 134.9% (4.688/7.520,3.605/8.023,3.147/1.058), distorted by acquisition/IPR&D/asset impairments and tax-settlement timing; GAAP2025 effective rate-3.5% andQ2,2026 tax rate 62.4% on a pretax loss are not meaningful perpetual operating rates. Cash company-cost bridge excludes only acquired amortization, making the guided normalized tax a closer cash-profit proxy; IPR&D1.613B and other GAAP charges remain in costs, whose deductibility differs, so 15% is not asserted to be a forecast GAAP EBIT tax rate. No clipping or margin adjustment to offset taxes. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | Reported segment revenue plusotherbusiness revenue reconciles externally without an intersegment elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2026Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2027Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2028Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2029Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2030Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2031Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2032Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2033Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Profit eliminated FY2034Consolidation | $0.0B | Reported | No extra intersegment profit elimination reported; use explicit net corporate operating cost reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2026Consolidation | $1.5B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2027Consolidation | $1.5B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2028Consolidation | $1.5B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2029Consolidation | $1.6B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2030Consolidation | $1.6B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2031Consolidation | $1.6B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2032Consolidation | $1.7B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2033Consolidation | $1.7B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Corporate revenue display FY2034Consolidation | $1.7B | Rule | PC1 and winding-downIgnite nonreportable businesses revenue: FY2025 consolidated 62.579B lessBiopharma 61.199B=1.380B; FY2026 latestotherbusinessgrowth 373M/348M then 2% mature growth. Their net operating contribution remains inside the exact annual corporate-cost residual, avoiding invented standalone margins. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| fiscalYearHistorical accounting reconciliation | FY2025 | Reported | FY2025 annual same-period reported segment-to-pretax reconciliation. sec.gov ↗ |
| grossRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $62.6B | Reported | Biopharma 61.199B +otherbusiness 1.380B=62.579B. sec.gov ↗ |
| revenueEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.0B | Reported | No separate intersegment revenue elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| consolidatedRevenueBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $62.6B | Reported | Reported consolidated revenue. sec.gov ↗ |
| segmentProfitBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $29.3B | Reported | Reported Biopharma segment earnings areEBT, not EBIT, and include 581Mnetnonoperatingcredit. sec.gov ↗ |
| profitEliminationsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $0.0B | Reported | No separate internal-profit elimination. sec.gov ↗ |
| corporateCostsBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $19.8B | Reported | Reported otherbusiness loss 8.199B + acquiredamort 4.874B + acquisition-related 1.285B + certain significant items 7.464B =21.822B reconciling charge; remove group net interest 2.068B only for historical accounting equation. Forward operating cash bridge is instead 9.643B, independently reconciled. sec.gov ↗ |
| operatingInterestBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $2.1B | Reported | Reported gross interest 2.671B less treasury interest.603B; historical pretax reconciliation only. sec.gov ↗ |
| consolidatedPretaxBHistorical accounting reconciliation | $7.5B | Reported | 29.342-19.754-2.068=7.520BGAAPpretax. ForwardlineoperatingEBIT removes 581Mcredit and excludes nonoperating investment/divestiture marks instead of capitalizing them. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $11.7B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments; use consolidated short-term investment total once, including all security classes sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $63.2B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000078003-26-000095 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000078003-26-000095 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-28 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $0.3B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000078003-26-000095 (filed 2026-08-04) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 5.700B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-29 cover page of 10-Q 0000078003-26-000095 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $9.8B | Reported | Four paid quarters throughOctober 20,2026: December 2025 andMarch/June/September 2026 .43 each=1.72; declared future fourth-quarter dividend is excluded. × 5.700B shares investors.pfizer.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 5.699B quarter 2026-03-30..2026-06-28 · 0000078003-26-000095; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $9.6B a year (15.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 6.7%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →