Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · OKLO
Oklo Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $2.3B
- FY2030 revenue
- $0.1B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- −$0.45 · —
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.51% · 9.51%
How this is built. Oklo has no revenue yet and gives no plant costs or long-range targets. This estimate values the Idaho plant and the 1.2 GW Meta campus on their stated schedules at DOE cost estimates and ~$110/MWh, plus about a fifth of the non-binding pipeline (3 GW) as the expected further build. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora powerhousesPowerhouses | Plants (project NPV) | $0.1B | −$0.1B | −$0.74 | — | -7131% |
| All businesses | $0.1B | −$0.1B | −$0.74 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$2.3B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$0.9B
- Equity value at FY2030$3.2B
- ÷ (1 + 9.51%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$2.1B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 8.6% — more than our 5% tolerance. Usually the net debt path borrows at a much lower rate than the discount rate assumes; treat the value as less certain.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today−$0.1B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$2.5B
- ÷ diluted shares0.186B
- Signal Ledger valuation$12.51
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $0B | −$0.2B | $0.2B | −$0.4B | $2.3B cash |
| FY2027 | $0B | −$0.2B | $0.2B | −$0.4B | $2.1B cash |
| FY2028 | $0B | −$0.2B | $0.5B | −$0.7B | $1.5B cash |
| FY2029 | $0.1B | −$0.2B | $0.3B | −$0.2B | $1.3B cash |
| FY2030 | $0.1B | −$0.2B | $0.3B | −$0.4B | $0.9B cash |
What must be true
- The company spends $1.6B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.9B of net cash in FY2030).
- Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) (75 MW) runs from FY2029 for $0.7B of build cost, worth $1.968M today.
- Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) (150 MW) runs from FY2031 for $0.9B of build cost, worth $58.039M today.
- Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW (1,050 MW) runs from FY2035 for $5.3B of build cost, worth $0.8B today.
- Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) (3,000 MW) runs from FY2036 for $13.5B of build cost, worth $1.3B today.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this project NPV model.
At the research price of $27.01 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.9%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.5% WACC · 9.5% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.51%
- WACC
- 9.51%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.13 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 42 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| CapacityAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | 75 MW | Guidance | the first Aurora powerhouse, at the line's 75 MWe rating 10-Q Q2 2026 (0001628280-26-054571) Note 1: Aurora product line 15–75 MWe; Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-07 (75 MW full-power operation) |
| First full year of operationAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | FY2029 | Guidance | go-live in 2028, so FY2029 is the first full year of operation Q2 2026 earnings call 2026-08-07: "2028 is still the targeted go-live" (CFO) |
| Build costAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | $9,000/kW | Peer | Oklo has not disclosed a cost for Aurora-INL ("not yet providing full guidance", Q2 2026 call); first-of-a-kind advanced reactor estimate liftoff.energy.gov ↗ |
| Power priceAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | $110/MWh | Peer | hyperscalers pay ~$110/MWh for firm nuclear power from a restarted plant; a new plant needs at least that, and the CEO's ~$100 dates from 2024 Jefferies estimate of the Microsoft–Constellation Crane (TMI-1) 20-year PPA, ~$110–115/MWh (Sept 2024); CEO Jacob DeWitte, Bloomberg 2024-12-18: about $100/MWh |
| Capacity factorAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | 92.0% | Peer | U.S. nuclear fleet average EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 6.07.B, U.S. nuclear capacity factor ~92% (2023–2025) |
| EBITDA marginAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | 55.0% | Rule | a 75 MWe fast reactor on HALEU fuel is assumed to cost more to fuel and run, about $45/MWh, leaving 55% of a $100/MWh price NEI 'Nuclear Costs in Context' (2024): average generating cost $31.76/MWh for the large-reactor fleet |
| LifeAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | 40 years | Peer | standard initial licence term 10 CFR 50.51: initial operating licence term of 40 years |
| Investment tax creditAurora powerhouses · Aurora-INL (Idaho National Laboratory) | 30.0% | Reported | zero-emission plant placed in service before the credit phases down 26 U.S.C. §48E (clean electricity investment credit), 30% with prevailing-wage and apprenticeship requirements; nuclear kept by Public Law 119-21 |
| CapacityAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | 150 MW | Rule | phase 1 size is not stated; assumed two 75 MWe powerhouses businesswire.com ↗ |
| First full year of operationAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | FY2031 | Guidance | online in 2030, first full year FY2031 Oklo–Meta release 2026-01-09: first phase could come online as early as 2030 |
| Build costAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | $6,200/kW | Peer | units after the first plant; Oklo gives no cost; Kiewit MOU covers EPC planning liftoff.energy.gov ↗ |
| Power priceAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | $110/MWh | Peer | hyperscalers pay ~$110/MWh for firm nuclear power from a restarted plant; a new plant needs at least that, and the CEO's ~$100 dates from 2024 Jefferies estimate of the Microsoft–Constellation Crane (TMI-1) 20-year PPA, ~$110–115/MWh (Sept 2024); CEO Jacob DeWitte, Bloomberg 2024-12-18: about $100/MWh |
| Capacity factorAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | 92.0% | Peer | U.S. nuclear fleet average EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 6.07.B |
| EBITDA marginAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | 55.0% | Rule | same operating cost assumption as Aurora-INL, ~$45/MWh NEI 'Nuclear Costs in Context' (2024) |
| LifeAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | 40 years | Peer | standard initial licence term 10 CFR 50.51 |
| Investment tax creditAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus phase 1 (Pike County, for Meta) | 30.0% | Reported | zero-emission plant; credit available for construction beginning before 2034 26 U.S.C. §48E |
| CapacityAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | 1,050 MW | Guidance | the rest of the 1.2 GW campus after phase 1 Oklo–Meta release 2026-01-09: campus scales to 1.2 GW by 2034 |
| First full year of operationAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | FY2035 | Guidance | full capacity in 2034, first full year FY2035 Oklo–Meta release 2026-01-09: 1.2 GW by 2034 |
| Build costAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | $5,000/kW | Peer | units 4–17 of the same 75 MWe design on one site: about a third of the way down DOE's learning curve liftoff.energy.gov ↗ |
| Power priceAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | $110/MWh | Peer | hyperscalers pay ~$110/MWh for firm nuclear power from a restarted plant; a new plant needs at least that, and the CEO's ~$100 dates from 2024 Jefferies estimate of the Microsoft–Constellation Crane (TMI-1) 20-year PPA, ~$110–115/MWh (Sept 2024); CEO Jacob DeWitte, Bloomberg 2024-12-18: about $100/MWh |
| Capacity factorAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | 92.0% | Peer | U.S. nuclear fleet average EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 6.07.B |
| EBITDA marginAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | 55.0% | Rule | ~$45/MWh operating cost NEI 'Nuclear Costs in Context' (2024) |
| LifeAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | 40 years | Peer | standard initial licence term 10 CFR 50.51 |
| Investment tax creditAurora powerhouses · Ohio campus build-out to 1.2 GW | 30.0% | Reported | construction beginning before 2034 26 U.S.C. §48E |
| CapacityAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | 3,000 MW | Rule | the agreements are non-binding: about a fifth of the ~14 GW pipeline outside Ohio is counted as the expected build. The platform cost runs forever, so the fleet it develops must keep growing after Ohio businesswire.com ↗ |
| First full year of operationAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | FY2036 | Rule | after the Ohio campus is complete (2034), first full year FY2036 Oklo–Switch release: deployments through 2044 |
| Build costAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | $4,500/kW | Peer | built after ~20 units, close to DOE's NOAK cost DOE Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear (2023): ~$3,600/kW NOAK after 10–20 units |
| Power priceAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | $110/MWh | Peer | hyperscalers pay ~$110/MWh for firm nuclear power from a restarted plant; a new plant needs at least that, and the CEO's ~$100 dates from 2024 Jefferies estimate of the Microsoft–Constellation Crane (TMI-1) 20-year PPA, ~$110–115/MWh (Sept 2024); CEO Jacob DeWitte, Bloomberg 2024-12-18: about $100/MWh |
| Capacity factorAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | 92.0% | Peer | U.S. nuclear fleet average EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 6.07.B |
| EBITDA marginAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | 55.0% | Rule | ~$45/MWh operating cost NEI 'Nuclear Costs in Context' (2024) |
| LifeAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | 40 years | Peer | standard initial licence term 10 CFR 50.51 |
| Investment tax creditAurora powerhouses · Further data-center plants (risk-weighted 3 GW of the ~14 GW pipeline) | 0.0% | Reported | construction starts after the credit phases down: none assumed 26 U.S.C. §48E as amended by Public Law 119-21: phase-down for construction beginning after 2033 |
| Price escalationAurora powerhouses | 2.0% | Rule | typical long-term PPA escalator no escalator disclosed |
| Platform cost a yearAurora powerhouses | $0.2B | Reported | last four quarters of R&D and G&A not capitalised into plants 10-Q Q2 2026 and 10-K FY2025: operating expenses FY2025 $139.3M − H1 2025 $45.9M + H1 2026 $125.4M |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.51% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.51% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.13 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | U.S. federal statutory rate; Oklo has no taxable income yet 26 U.S.C. §11(b) |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $2.5B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:DebtSecuritiesAvailableForSaleExcludingAccruedInterestCurrent · 0001628280-26-054571 (filed 2026-08-07) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.7M | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; current liabilities fully tagged and reconciled; no current borrowing line; sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.187M | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0001628280-26-054571 (filed 2026-08-07) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.186B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-08-04 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-054571 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | Oklo pays no dividend × 0.186B shares no dividends declared |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.176224404B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001628280-26-054571; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 9.51% (β 1.13 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.5%
- Aurora powerhouses: 4 announced project(s), 4,275 MW owned share (methodology §3.6)
- Powerhouses: development platform costs exceed the NPV of the plants valued (−$0.74/share)
- enterprise and equity-chain values differ by 8.6% (limit 5%)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →