Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · NVDA
NVIDIA Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business, plus our judgment calls): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 26, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $8,827B
- FY2030 revenue
- $917B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $20.66 · 20×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.83% · 9.87%
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2027
Reported Aug 26, 2026 for the quarter to Jul 26, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $89.0B | +117% | — | — |
| Edge Computing | $7.20B | +27% | — | — |
- Q3 revenue guidance $108B, GAAP gross margin 74%, GAAP operating expenses $9.2B; no China Data Center compute revenue assumed.
- FY2028 revenue growth around 70% is management supply-constrained outlook, verified in the official company-hosted transcript.
- Company gross margin expected at 71-72% in Q4 FY2027 and 72-73% in FY2028 because of memory costs; these are not segment EBIT targets.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data CenterData Center · AI infrastructure | Margin | $868B | $7,734B | $320.91 | 15.8× EBIT | 66% |
| Edge ComputingEdge Computing · PCs, vehicles and robotics | Margin | $48B | $287B | $11.92 | 15.8× EBIT | 67% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$596B | −$24.73 | — | 66% |
| All businesses | $917B | $7,425B | $308.10 |
Our judgment calls
Where the evidence leaves room for judgment, we make the call ourselves and say why (Signal Ledger, Oct 22, 2026). This call is part of the valuation above; every other input follows the research file and the published rules.
| Assumption | Our call | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Data Center: FY2030 operating margin | 67.2% | We hold the existing Data Center operating-margin proxy at 67.2% for FY2030 instead of the 71.2% the rule alone would give. NVIDIA reported FY2026 Compute & Networking operating income of $130.141B on $193.479B of revenue, or 67.2636%; this reportable segment is a close but imperfect proxy for the Data Center market platform (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm). On the August 26, 2026 call, management set company gross-margin expectations at 71-72% in Q4 FY2027 and 72-73% in FY2028 because memory costs exceeded expectations (https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf, p. 7). Maintaining approximately the historical operating economics is our judgment, not a company FY2030 target or a claimed ceiling; the company gross-margin outlook cannot directly determine a Data Center EBIT margin. Edge Computing is unchanged. |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$8,827B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$1,321B
- Equity value at FY2030$10,148B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^3.5 years at the cost of equity$7,290B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$37B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.6%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$7,425B
- − borrowings$33B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$57B
- ÷ diluted shares24.100B
- Signal Ledger valuation$309.06
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $407B | $252B | $11B | $199B | $119B cash |
| FY2028 | $692B | $432B | $19B | $341B | $452B cash |
| FY2029 | $797B | $498B | $22B | $393B | $849B cash |
| FY2030 | $917B | $573B | $26B | $452B | $1,321B cash |
What must be true
- Data Center · AI infrastructure grows revenue from $378.4B in FY2027 to $868.4B in FY2030 (2.3×).
- Edge Computing · PCs, vehicles and robotics grows revenue from $28.4B in FY2027 to $48.2B in FY2030 (1.7×).
- Data Center holds its EBIT margin at 67.2%.
- Edge Computing raises its EBIT margin from 41.2% to 45.2%.
- The company spends $78.7B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $23.2B of net cash in FY2026).
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $212.21 is about $611.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 29.7% a year from FY2026) with 66.0% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $916.5B and 66.0% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $212.21 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.67×At research margins | $611.4B | 29.7% | 66.0% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $1,374.8B | 58.8% | 34.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $1,833B | 70.7% | 27.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $2,749.6B | 88.9% | 20.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $215.9B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 12.7%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.67×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.8% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $611.4B (model: $916.5B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Data Center · AI infrastructure
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $581.8B (model: $868.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 47.5% (model: 67.2%).
Edge Computing · PCs, vehicles and robotics
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.83%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 20 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027Data Center | $378.4B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 95.3% investor.nvidia.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Data Center | $868.4B | Guidance | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.0% investor.nvidia.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Data Center | 67.2% | Rule | Signal Ledger judgment: We hold the existing Data Center operating-margin proxy at 67.2% for FY2030 instead of the 71.2% the rule alone would give. NVIDIA reported FY2026 Compute & Networking operating income of $130.141B on $193.479B of revenue, or 67.2636%; this reportable segment is a close but imperfect proxy for the Data Center market platform (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm). On the August 26, 2026 call, management set company gross-margin expectations at 71-72% in Q4 FY2027 and 72-73% in FY2028 because memory costs exceeded expectations (https://investor.nvidia.com/files/content_files/TRANSCRIPT_-NVIDIA-Corp-NVDA-US-Q2-2027-Earnings-Call-26-August-2026-5_00-PM-ET.pdf, p. 7). Maintaining approximately the historical operating economics is our judgment, not a company FY2030 target or a claimed ceiling; the company gross-margin outlook cannot directly determine a Data Center EBIT margin. Edge Computing is unchanged. Our judgment calls · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexData Center | 2.8% | Reported | fabless: capex is small companyAnnual FY2026: capex $6.042B ÷ revenue $215.9B |
| Terminal growthData Center | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Edge Computing | $28.4B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 28.0% productLinesQuarterly nvda:EdgeComputingMember: H1 FY2027 $13.567B vs H1 FY2026 $10.597B |
| Revenue FY2030Edge Computing | $48.2B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.8% productLinesQuarterly nvda:EdgeComputingMember: H1 FY2027 $13.567B vs H1 FY2026 $10.597B |
| EBIT margin FY2030Edge Computing | 45.2% | Rule | linear path to 45.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 21.4% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEdge Computing | 2.8% | Reported | company capex share of revenue companyAnnual FY2026 |
| Terminal growthEdge Computing | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 4.8% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$10.289B; grows with the lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-07-26, 2026-04-26, 2026-01-25, 2025-10-26 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 4.8% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$10.289B; grows with the lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-07-26, 2026-04-26, 2026-01-25, 2025-10-26 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.83% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 17.0% | Guidance | midpoint Q2 FY2027 release: FY2027 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates 16.0–18.0% |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $56.6B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:DebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0001045810-26-000075 (filed 2026-08-26) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $33.4B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0001045810-26-000075 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001045810-26-000075 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-07-26 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 24.100B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-08-21 cover page of 10-Q 0001045810-26-000075 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $12.5B | Reported | declared over the last four quarters: $0.01 + $0.01 + $0.25 + $0.25 × 24.100B shares Q2 FY2027 release: quarterly dividend $0.25 (from $0.01); dividends paid $6.047B in Q2 FY2027 |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 24.285B quarter 2026-04-27..2026-07-26 · 0001045810-26-000075; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $10.3B a year (3.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.8%
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered, with our stated judgment calls — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →