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Signal Ledger valuation · NOW

ServiceNow, Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$72.76−54% vs $157.00
Business value at FY2030
$99B
FY2030 revenue
$31B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$5.50 · 19×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
8.60% · 8.84%

How this is built. Management subscription revenue target retained; post-2030 GAAP profitability convergence to a sourced mature enterprise software peer is our research assumption. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0001373715-26-000076 · price $157.00 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2026

Reported Jul 22, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$3.99B
Operating income$0.16B4.1% margin
Net income$0.30B
Diluted EPS$0.29
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Workflow platform (single reported segment)$3.99B+24%$0.16B4.1%
  • Subscription revenue $3.877B, up 24.5%; cRPO $13.20B, up 21%.
  • FY2026 subscription revenue guide $15.760–15.780B; GAAP operating margin 10%, non-GAAP 31.5%.
  • Management reaffirmed $30B+ FY2030 subscription revenue and SBC below 10% of total revenue by 2029; Rule of 60 is not EBIT margin.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Subscription platformWorkflow platformMargin$30B$78B$75.8814.2× EBIT70%
Professional services and otherWorkflow platformMargin$0.6B−$0.4B−$0.36—61%
All businesses$31B$78B$75.52

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$99B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$9.8B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$108B
  4. ÷ (1 + 8.84%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$74B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.5%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$78B
  2. − borrowings$7.5B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$4.7B
  5. ÷ diluted shares1.034B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$72.76

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$16B$2.2B$1.1B$0.8B$2.5B
FY2027$19B$3.3B$1.2B$1.5B$1B
FY2028$22B$4.7B$1.5B$2.4B$1.3B cash
FY2029$26B$6.4B$1.7B$3.6B$5B cash
FY2030$31B$8.2B$2B$4.7B$9.8B cash

What must be true

  • Workflow platform grows revenue from $16.2B in FY2026 to $30.6B in FY2030 (1.9×).
  • Subscription platform raises its EBIT margin from 10.4% to 23.3%.
  • Professional services and other raises its EBIT margin from -4.8% to -0.8%.
  • The company spends $7.5B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $2.9B in FY2025 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $157.00 at our discount rate, ServiceNow, Inc. would need about $66.1B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 42.2% a year from FY2026) with 22.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $30.6B and 22.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $157.00 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.50×$45.9B29.7%
30.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$61.2B39.4%
24.3% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.16×At research margins$66.1B42.2%
22.8% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$91.7B54.3%
17.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $16.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
5.8%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.6% WACC · 8.8% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
2.16×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $66.1B (model: $30.6B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Workflow platform

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $64.9B (model: $30.6B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 43.9% (model: 22.8%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
8.84%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
8.60%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 21 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Mature GAAP EBIT margin FY2034 (SBC included)Subscription platform20.1%RuleSalesforce FY2026 revenue $41.525B and GAAP EBIT $8.331B =>20.0626%, already after $3.509B SBC. Enterprise recurring software sales and R&D economics provide a mature reference, not a same-size guarantee; NOW has different products, acquisition mix and sales costs. Use as the final FY2034 GAAP target, with no extra SBC relief stacked on it. FY2030 margin changes only by the explicitly sourced SBC replacement; this mature GAAP endpoint stays unchanged. d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net ↗
SBC / revenue FY2030 (expensed)Subscription platform10.2%RuleIssuer: SBC less than 10% of total revenue by 2029. Formal §4.3.1 uses 10% upper bound, linear interpolation after unchanged FY2026, holds total-revenue ratio through 2030; allocates all company SBC to subscription by total/subscription revenue. Thereafter reconciles to the existing mature SBC and unchanged GAAP endpoint; intermediate years/allocation/2030 hold are assumptions. sec.gov ↗
Mature SBC / revenue (expensed)Subscription platform8.5%Rule8.5% of subscription revenue, conservative mature policy floor above Adobe/Salesforce actual ratios; shared expenses remain allocated to subscription; services receive no uplift. This is part of the final 20.0626% contribution GAAP margin, no extra uplift. d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net ↗ · adobe.com ↗
Revenue FY2026Subscription platform$15.8BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 22.4% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Subscription platform$30.0BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 17.4% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Subscription platform23.3%Rule§4.3.1 sourced SBC replacement, other costs unchanged; no cash addback: Issuer: SBC less than 10% of total revenue by 2029. Formal §4.3.1 uses 10% upper bound, linear interpolation after unchanged FY2026, holds total-revenue ratio through 2030; allocates all company SBC to subscription by total/subscription revenue. Thereafter reconciles to the existing mature SBC and unchanged GAAP endpoint; intermediate years/allocation/2030 hold are assumptions.; original GAAP path: linear path to 18.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 18.4% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexSubscription platform6.5%ReportedFY2025 PPE capex $0.868B / $13.278B; recurring historical share exceeds depreciation. Latest FY2026 cash capex guide is 4% but no perpetual replacement guide. investor.servicenow.com ↗
Terminal growthSubscription platform3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2026Professional services and other$0.4BReportedhold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.8% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Professional services and other$0.6BReportedhold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.8% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Professional services and other-0.8%Rulelinear path to -0.8% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
Maintenance capexProfessional services and other6.5%ReportedFY2025 PPE capex $0.868B / $13.278B; recurring historical share exceeds depreciation. Latest FY2026 cash capex guide is 4% but no perpetual replacement guide. investor.servicenow.com ↗
Terminal growthProfessional services and other3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates8.60%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates8.84%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates21.0%GuidanceManagement normalized effective rate 21%; discrete GAAP valuation-allowance releases not extrapolated. newsroom.servicenow.com ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$4.7BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0001373715-26-000076 (filed 2026-07-23)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$7.5BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings · 0001373715-26-000076 + us-gaap:LongTermDebt (noncurrent row on reconciled consolidated balance sheet) · 0001373715-26-000076
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30
SharesBalance sheet1.034BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0001373715-26-000076
Dividends per yearShareholders$0.0BReportedNo cash dividend; shareholder returns via repurchases. × 1.034B shares sec.gov ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 1.034334B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001373715-26-000076; point-in-time denominator retained
  • cost of equity 8.84% (β 0.99 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.6%
  • Subscription platform: FY2031–34 mature GAAP EBIT target 20.1%, including SBC 8.5% of revenue (FY2030 10.2%). SBC is expensed once; no future-award dilution or cash addback. Capacity EBIT also depends on actual equipment depreciation.

Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →