Signal Ledger valuation · NOW
ServiceNow, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $99B
- FY2030 revenue
- $31B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $5.50 · 19×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.60% · 8.84%
How this is built. Management subscription revenue target retained; post-2030 GAAP profitability convergence to a sourced mature enterprise software peer is our research assumption. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2026
Reported Jul 22, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workflow platform (single reported segment) | $3.99B | +24% | $0.16B | 4.1% |
- Subscription revenue $3.877B, up 24.5%; cRPO $13.20B, up 21%.
- FY2026 subscription revenue guide $15.760–15.780B; GAAP operating margin 10%, non-GAAP 31.5%.
- Management reaffirmed $30B+ FY2030 subscription revenue and SBC below 10% of total revenue by 2029; Rule of 60 is not EBIT margin.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription platformWorkflow platform | Margin | $30B | $78B | $75.88 | 14.2× EBIT | 70% |
| Professional services and otherWorkflow platform | Margin | $0.6B | −$0.4B | −$0.36 | — | 61% |
| All businesses | $31B | $78B | $75.52 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$99B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$9.8B
- Equity value at FY2030$108B
- ÷ (1 + 8.84%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$74B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.5%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$78B
- − borrowings$7.5B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$4.7B
- ÷ diluted shares1.034B
- Signal Ledger valuation$72.76
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $16B | $2.2B | $1.1B | $0.8B | $2.5B |
| FY2027 | $19B | $3.3B | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1B |
| FY2028 | $22B | $4.7B | $1.5B | $2.4B | $1.3B cash |
| FY2029 | $26B | $6.4B | $1.7B | $3.6B | $5B cash |
| FY2030 | $31B | $8.2B | $2B | $4.7B | $9.8B cash |
What must be true
- Workflow platform grows revenue from $16.2B in FY2026 to $30.6B in FY2030 (1.9×).
- Subscription platform raises its EBIT margin from 10.4% to 23.3%.
- Professional services and other raises its EBIT margin from -4.8% to -0.8%.
- The company spends $7.5B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $2.9B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $157.00 at our discount rate, ServiceNow, Inc. would need about $66.1B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 42.2% a year from FY2026) with 22.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $30.6B and 22.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $157.00 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $45.9B | 29.7% | 30.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $61.2B | 39.4% | 24.3% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.16×At research margins | $66.1B | 42.2% | 22.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $91.7B | 54.3% | 17.6% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $16.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.8%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 2.16×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.6% WACC · 8.8% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $66.1B (model: $30.6B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Workflow platform
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $64.9B (model: $30.6B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 43.9% (model: 22.8%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.84%
- WACC
- 8.60%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 21 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mature GAAP EBIT margin FY2034 (SBC included)Subscription platform | 20.1% | Rule | Salesforce FY2026 revenue $41.525B and GAAP EBIT $8.331B =>20.0626%, already after $3.509B SBC. Enterprise recurring software sales and R&D economics provide a mature reference, not a same-size guarantee; NOW has different products, acquisition mix and sales costs. Use as the final FY2034 GAAP target, with no extra SBC relief stacked on it. FY2030 margin changes only by the explicitly sourced SBC replacement; this mature GAAP endpoint stays unchanged. d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| SBC / revenue FY2030 (expensed)Subscription platform | 10.2% | Rule | Issuer: SBC less than 10% of total revenue by 2029. Formal §4.3.1 uses 10% upper bound, linear interpolation after unchanged FY2026, holds total-revenue ratio through 2030; allocates all company SBC to subscription by total/subscription revenue. Thereafter reconciles to the existing mature SBC and unchanged GAAP endpoint; intermediate years/allocation/2030 hold are assumptions. sec.gov ↗ |
| Mature SBC / revenue (expensed)Subscription platform | 8.5% | Rule | 8.5% of subscription revenue, conservative mature policy floor above Adobe/Salesforce actual ratios; shared expenses remain allocated to subscription; services receive no uplift. This is part of the final 20.0626% contribution GAAP margin, no extra uplift. d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net ↗ · adobe.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Subscription platform | $15.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 22.4% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Subscription platform | $30.0B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 17.4% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Subscription platform | 23.3% | Rule | §4.3.1 sourced SBC replacement, other costs unchanged; no cash addback: Issuer: SBC less than 10% of total revenue by 2029. Formal §4.3.1 uses 10% upper bound, linear interpolation after unchanged FY2026, holds total-revenue ratio through 2030; allocates all company SBC to subscription by total/subscription revenue. Thereafter reconciles to the existing mature SBC and unchanged GAAP endpoint; intermediate years/allocation/2030 hold are assumptions.; original GAAP path: linear path to 18.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 18.4% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSubscription platform | 6.5% | Reported | FY2025 PPE capex $0.868B / $13.278B; recurring historical share exceeds depreciation. Latest FY2026 cash capex guide is 4% but no perpetual replacement guide. investor.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthSubscription platform | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Professional services and other | $0.4B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.8% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Professional services and other | $0.6B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 7.8% newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Professional services and other | -0.8% | Rule | linear path to -0.8% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 7.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexProfessional services and other | 6.5% | Reported | FY2025 PPE capex $0.868B / $13.278B; recurring historical share exceeds depreciation. Latest FY2026 cash capex guide is 4% but no perpetual replacement guide. investor.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthProfessional services and other | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.60% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.84% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Guidance | Management normalized effective rate 21%; discrete GAAP valuation-allowance releases not extrapolated. newsroom.servicenow.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $4.7B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0001373715-26-000076 (filed 2026-07-23) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $7.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings · 0001373715-26-000076 + us-gaap:LongTermDebt (noncurrent row on reconciled consolidated balance sheet) · 0001373715-26-000076 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.034B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0001373715-26-000076 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | No cash dividend; shareholder returns via repurchases. × 1.034B shares sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.034334B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001373715-26-000076; point-in-time denominator retained
- cost of equity 8.84% (β 0.99 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.6%
- Subscription platform: FY2031–34 mature GAAP EBIT target 20.1%, including SBC 8.5% of revenue (FY2030 10.2%). SBC is expensed once; no future-award dilution or cash addback. Capacity EBIT also depends on actual equipment depreciation.
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →