Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · MU
Micron Technology Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 3, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $1,044B
- FY2030 revenue
- $260B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $98.22 · 15×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.84% · 9.87%
How this is built. Micron gives one quarter of guidance and no long-range targets, and memory is cyclical. This estimate takes consensus for FY2027 (about $274B), then a mid-cycle FY2030: revenue ~5% lower and operating margins of 38–45%, between the last two cycle peaks, instead of today's 80%+. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud Memory | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $82B | $382B | $337.56 | 8.4× EBITDA | 46% |
| Core Data Center | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $80B | $385B | $340.53 | 8.6× EBITDA | 45% |
| Mobile and Client | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $68B | $290B | $256.62 | 8.2× EBITDA | 42% |
| Automotive and Embedded | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $30B | $129B | $114.33 | 8.2× EBITDA | 44% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$38B | −$33.27 | — | 54% |
| All businesses | $260B | $1,149B | $1,015.77 |
Cloud Memory: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 87.5% EBITDA a year against a 19.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.85 today after paying for its equipment.
Core Data Center: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 102.5% EBITDA a year against a 19.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.89 today after paying for its equipment.
Mobile and Client: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 75.8% EBITDA a year against a 19.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.54 today after paying for its equipment.
Automotive and Embedded: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 79.2% EBITDA a year against a 19.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $1.63 today after paying for its equipment.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$1,044B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$592B
- Equity value at FY2030$1,636B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.0 years at the cost of equity$1,123B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$2B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 5.3% — more than our 5% tolerance. Usually the net debt path borrows at a much lower rate than the discount rate assumes; treat the value as less certain.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$1,149B
- − borrowings$2.8B
- − finance leases$2.4B
- + cash and short-term investments$43B
- ÷ diluted shares1.131B
- Signal Ledger valuation$1,049.58
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027part already reported | $274B | $235B | $50B | $152B | $163B cash |
| FY2028 | $269B | $197B | $12B | $158B | $328B cash |
| FY2029 | $265B | $161B | $7.8B | $132B | $473B cash |
| FY2030 | $260B | $126B | $9.8B | $100B | $592B cash |
What must be true
- Cloud Memory revenue shrinks from $86.2B in FY2027 to $81.8B in FY2030 (-5.1%).
- Core Data Center revenue shrinks from $84.6B in FY2027 to $80.3B in FY2030 (-5.1%).
- Mobile and Client revenue shrinks from $71.4B in FY2027 to $67.7B in FY2030 (-5.1%).
- Automotive and Embedded revenue shrinks from $31.8B in FY2027 to $30.1B in FY2030 (-5.1%).
- Cloud Memory lets its EBITDA margin slip from 81.0% to 52.5%.
- Core Data Center lets its EBITDA margin slip from 89.4% to 51.2%.
- Mobile and Client lets its EBITDA margin slip from 93.1% to 45.5%.
- Automotive and Embedded lets its EBITDA margin slip from 84.0% to 47.5%.
- The company spends $79.9B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $38.3B of net cash in FY2026).
- Cloud Memory earns 87.5% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 19.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- Core Data Center earns 102.5% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 19.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- Mobile and Client earns 75.8% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 19.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
- Automotive and Embedded earns 79.2% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 19.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $856.49 is about $192.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 9.6% a year from FY2026) with 49.7% EBITDA margin — versus $259.9B and 49.7% EBITDA margin in our research.
At the research price of $856.49 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.74×At research margins | $192.4B | 9.6% | 49.7% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $389.9B | 30.8% | 33.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $519.9B | 40.6% | 28.3% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $779.8B | 55.6% | 23.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $133.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 12.2%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.74×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.8% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $192.4B (model: $259.9B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Core Data Center
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $26.5B (model: $80.3B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 25.4% (model: 51.2%).
Cloud Memory
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $26.6B (model: $81.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 26.5% (model: 52.5%).
Mobile and Client
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 16.2% (model: 45.5%).
Automotive and Embedded
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.84%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 38 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027Cloud Memory | $86.2B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 100.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Cloud Memory | $81.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Cloud Memory | 52.5% | Peer | linear path to 52.5% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 45.0% + depreciation k ÷ life = 0.6 ÷ 8 = 7.5% of revenue → EBITDA 52.5% Micron 10-K FY2018: operating income $14.99B on $30.39B (49%, the last cycle's peak); 10-K FY2022: $9.70B on $30.76B (32%); SK hynix 2018 operating margin ~52% |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Cloud Memory | 0.6 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 0.56 investing.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeCloud Memory | 8 years | Reported | server life 7 years + 1 for long-lived assets usefulLivesYears: equipment 7 years (10-K FY2026) |
| Capex FY2027Cloud Memory | $16.2B | Guidance | FY2027 capex above $50B × 0.324 pool share investing.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthCloud Memory | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Core Data Center | $84.6B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 125.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Core Data Center | $80.3B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Core Data Center | 51.2% | Peer | linear path to 51.2% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 45.0% + depreciation k ÷ life = 0.5 ÷ 8 = 6.3% of revenue → EBITDA 51.2% Micron 10-K FY2018: operating income $14.99B on $30.39B (49%, the last cycle's peak); 10-K FY2022: $9.70B on $30.76B (32%); SK hynix 2018 operating margin ~52% |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Core Data Center | 0.5 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 0.50 investing.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeCore Data Center | 8 years | Reported | server life 7 years + 1 for long-lived assets usefulLivesYears: equipment 7 years (10-K FY2026) |
| Capex FY2027Core Data Center | $14.1B | Guidance | FY2027 capex above $50B × 0.282 pool share investing.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthCore Data Center | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Mobile and Client | $71.4B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 95.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Mobile and Client | $67.7B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Mobile and Client | 45.5% | Peer | linear path to 45.5% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 38.0% + depreciation k ÷ life = 0.6 ÷ 8 = 7.5% of revenue → EBITDA 45.5% Micron 10-K FY2018: operating income $14.99B on $30.39B (49%, the last cycle's peak); 10-K FY2022: $9.70B on $30.76B (32%); SK hynix 2018 operating margin ~52% |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Mobile and Client | 0.6 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 0.57 investing.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeMobile and Client | 8 years | Reported | server life 7 years + 1 for long-lived assets usefulLivesYears: equipment 7 years (10-K FY2026) |
| Capex FY2027Mobile and Client | $13.8B | Guidance | FY2027 capex above $50B × 0.275 pool share investing.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthMobile and Client | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027Automotive and Embedded | $31.8B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 100.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Automotive and Embedded | $30.1B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -1.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · investing.com ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Automotive and Embedded | 47.5% | Peer | linear path to 47.5% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 40.0% + depreciation k ÷ life = 0.6 ÷ 8 = 7.5% of revenue → EBITDA 47.5% Micron 10-K FY2018: operating income $14.99B on $30.39B (49%, the last cycle's peak); 10-K FY2022: $9.70B on $30.76B (32%); SK hynix 2018 operating margin ~52% |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Automotive and Embedded | 0.6 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 0.56 investing.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeAutomotive and Embedded | 8 years | Reported | server life 7 years + 1 for long-lived assets usefulLivesYears: equipment 7 years (10-K FY2026) |
| Capex FY2027Automotive and Embedded | $5.9B | Guidance | FY2027 capex above $50B × 0.119 pool share investing.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthAutomotive and Embedded | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 1.4% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$1.851B; grows with the non-infrastructure lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-09-03, 2026-05-28, 2026-02-26, 2025-11-27 |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 1.4% | Reported | trailing four quarters: consolidated operating income minus segment profit = −$1.851B; grows with the non-infrastructure lines' revenue SEC XBRL 2026-09-03, 2026-05-28, 2026-02-26, 2025-11-27 |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.84% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 15.0% | Reported | effective rate ~15% companyAnnual FY2026: net income $84.97B on operating income $99.34B plus interest income |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $43.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0000723125-26-000023 (filed 2026-10-09) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $2.8B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; finance leases already included in combined debt tags removed and deducted separately us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000723125-26-000023 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtAndCapitalLeaseObligations · 0000723125-26-000023 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $2.4B | Reported | finance lease liabilities (capex-like; deducted once) us-gaap:FinanceLeaseLiability · 0000723125-26-000023 (filed 2026-10-09) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.131B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-02 cover page of 10-K 0000723125-26-000023 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.6B | Reported | last four quarters × 1.131B shares companyAnnual FY2026 dividends per share |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 1.143B FY 2026-09-03 diluted average; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $1.9B a year (1.4% of trailing revenue), growing with the non-infrastructure lines, valued as one negative business
- Cloud Memory: 1 quarter(s) of FY2027 already reported; counted as actuals
- Core Data Center: 1 quarter(s) of FY2027 already reported; counted as actuals
- Mobile and Client: 1 quarter(s) of FY2027 already reported; counted as actuals
- Automotive and Embedded: 1 quarter(s) of FY2027 already reported; counted as actuals
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.8%
- Cloud Memory: k 0.6 (calibrated 0.56), life 8 years
- Cloud Memory: operating-margin target 45.0% converted to 52.5% EBITDA (k ÷ life 7.5%)
- Core Data Center: k 0.5 (calibrated 0.50), life 8 years
- Core Data Center: operating-margin target 45.0% converted to 51.2% EBITDA (k ÷ life 6.3%)
- Mobile and Client: k 0.6 (calibrated 0.57), life 8 years
- Mobile and Client: operating-margin target 38.0% converted to 45.5% EBITDA (k ÷ life 7.5%)
- Automotive and Embedded: k 0.6 (calibrated 0.56), life 8 years
- Automotive and Embedded: operating-margin target 40.0% converted to 47.5% EBITDA (k ÷ life 7.5%)
- enterprise and equity-chain values differ by 5.3% (limit 5%)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →