Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · MSTR
Strategy Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $102B
- FY2030 revenue
- $0.7B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- −$4.07 · —
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.48% · 9.87%
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software | Margin | $0.7B | $0.7B | $1.72 | 13.1× EBIT | 62% |
| Bitcoin treasuryBitcoin | Asset at market price | — | $67B | $175.26 | — | 0% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$1.4B | −$3.77 | — | 63% |
| All businesses | $0.7B | $67B | $173.21 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$102B
- Less net debt at FY2030$26B
- Equity value at FY2030$76B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$50B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 6.0% — more than our 5% tolerance. Usually the net debt path borrows at a much lower rate than the discount rate assumes; treat the value as less certain.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$67B
- − borrowings$6.7B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$15B
- + cash and short-term investments$2.4B
- ÷ diluted shares0.384B
- Signal Ledger valuation$121.87
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $0.5B | −$0B | $0B | −$0B | $20B |
| FY2027 | $0.6B | −$0B | $0B | −$0B | $22B |
| FY2028 | $0.6B | −$0B | $0B | −$0B | $23B |
| FY2029 | $0.7B | −$0B | $0B | −$0B | $25B |
| FY2030 | $0.7B | −$0B | $0B | −$0B | $26B |
What must be true
- Software grows revenue from $0.5B in FY2026 to $0.7B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Software raises its EBIT margin from 4.3% to 8.3%.
- The company spends $62.991M of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $26.1B in FY2030 and stays financeable.
- Bitcoin treasury is worth $67.3B at $81,213.5 a unit on 846,000 units; every 10% move in that price moves the value by $17.53 a share.
What the price implies
To reach $145.80 at our discount rate, even 3× our FY2030 sales ($2.2B) within the 50% GAAP EBIT / 100% EBITDA guardrails is not enough. The price needs growth beyond these FY2030 combinations, a stronger post-FY2030 path, or a different discount rate.
Sales and margins here cover operating lines only; asset NAV lines stay fixed. These sales figures are not total company revenue.
At the research price of $145.80 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $1.1B | 21.1% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 2.00× | $1.5B | 30.1% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
| 3.00× | $2.2B | 44.0% | — | InfeasibleCannot reach the price within 50% EBIT / 100% EBITDA limits. |
CAGR uses $0.52B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- —
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
No discount rate in the search range makes this model equal the price. Model: 9.5% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
Sales alone cannot match this price within the search range. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Software
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.48%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 20 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Software | $0.5B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 9.4% 10-Q Q2 2026 (0001050446-26-000044) Note 13: six-month revenue $246.7M vs $225.6M |
| Revenue FY2030Software | $0.7B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 9.4% 10-Q Q2 2026 (0001050446-26-000044) Note 13: six-month revenue $246.7M vs $225.6M |
| EBIT margin FY2030Software | 8.3% | Rule | linear path to 8.3% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 9.4% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSoftware | 2.0% | Rule | maintenance default 2% of revenue |
| Terminal growthSoftware | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Units heldBitcoin treasury | 846,000 | Reported | holding at the balance-sheet date, the same date as the debt and preferred deducted us-gaap:CryptoAssetNumberOfUnits (Bitcoin) at 2026-06-30 |
| Price per unitBitcoin treasury | $81,213.5 | Reported | market price of one unit at 2026-10-23 Yahoo Finance chart API BTC-USD 2026-10-23 |
| Cost of the holdingBitcoin treasury | $63.9B | Reported | aggregate cost of the holding us-gaap:CryptoAssetCost at 2026-06-30 |
| Tax on unrealised gainBitcoin treasury | 28.7% | Reported | Strategy provides deferred income tax on unrealized bitcoin gains; its Q2 2025 provision on a quarter of gains was 28.7% 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 13: Bitcoin segment Q2 2025 tax expense $4,024.9M on $14,015.3M pre-tax gain |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 15.8% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: the Bitcoin segment's running costs, $37.7M in six months ≈ $75M a year, are outside software profit and not in the holding's value; ÷ FY2025 revenue $0.477B; grows with the lines' revenue 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 13: Bitcoin segment six-month costs (sales and marketing $1.0M, G&A $20.5M, custody $8.1M, share-based compensation $8.6M, payroll taxes $0.5M, other −$1.0M) |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 15.8% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: the Bitcoin segment's running costs, $37.7M in six months ≈ $75M a year, are outside software profit and not in the holding's value; ÷ FY2025 revenue $0.477B; grows with the lines' revenue 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 13: Bitcoin segment six-month costs (sales and marketing $1.0M, G&A $20.5M, custody $8.1M, share-based compensation $8.6M, payroll taxes $0.5M, other −$1.0M) |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.48% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | the software segment's reported tax line is dominated by valuation-allowance swings, so the statutory rate is used for software profits U.S. federal statutory corporate rate, 26 U.S.C. §11(b) |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $2.4B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0001050446-26-000044 (filed 2026-08-03) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $6.7B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001050446-26-000044 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001050446-26-000044 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Preferred stockBalance sheet | $15.5B | Reported | preferred stock at liquidation preference (incl. preferred classed as temporary equity) us-gaap:PreferredStockValue + us-gaap:TemporaryEquityLiquidationPreference · 0001050446-26-000044 (filed 2026-08-03) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.384B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-24 cover page of 10-Q 0001050446-26-000044 (2 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | no dividends on class A common stock × 0.384B shares companyAnnual.dividendsPerShare (none) |
Research notes
- Bitcoin treasury: price $81,213.5 from a BTC-USD market quote (AI cited $77,004)
- share-count comparison: 0.352534B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001050446-26-000044; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.1B a year (15.8% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.5%
- Bitcoin treasury: 846,000 units marked at $81,213.5 (methodology §3.5)
- enterprise and equity-chain values differ by 6.0% (limit 5%)
- Bitcoin treasury: 846,000 units at $81,213.5 = $68.7B less $1.4B tax on the unrealised gain; every 10% move in the price moves value by $17.53 a share
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →