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Signal Ledger valuation · MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.

What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Aug 1, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$71.92−68% vs $223.47
Business value at FY2030
$78B
FY2030 revenue
$25B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$5.26 · 19×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
9.74% · 9.87%

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0001835632-26-000025 · price $223.47 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2027

Reported Aug 27, 2026 for the quarter to Aug 1, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$2.74B
Operating income$0.46B16.8% margin
Net income$0.31B
Diluted EPS$0.33
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Data Center$2.17B+46%——
Communications and Other$0.57B+10%——
  • Revenue increased 37% year over year to $2.7393B; Data Center grew 46%.
  • GAAP operating income was $459.7M; non-GAAP operating income $1,003.2M excludes $326.2M SBC and other adjustments.
  • Q3 revenue guidance is $3.15B ±5%; reported diluted EPS was $0.33.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Data CenterMargin$24B$64B$71.1116.0× EBIT68%
Communications and OtherMargin$1.5B$1.8B$1.966.0× EBIT41%
All businesses$25B$66B$73.07

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$78B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$9.5B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$88B
  4. ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^3.5 years at the cost of equity$63B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0.6B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.4%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$66B
  2. − borrowings$5B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$3.9B
  5. ÷ diluted shares0.899B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$71.92

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2027$12B$2.3B$0.5B$1.5B$0.4B
FY2028$20B$4B$0.9B$2.8B$2.1B cash
FY2029$22B$4.8B$1B$3.4B$5.4B cash
FY2030$25B$5.7B$1.1B$4.1B$9.5B cash

What must be true

  • Data Center grows revenue from $9.7B in FY2027 to $23.8B in FY2030 (2.5×).
  • Communications and Other revenue shrinks from $2.3B in FY2027 to $1.5B in FY2030 (-34.6%).
  • Data Center raises its EBIT margin from 16.1% to 20.1%.
  • Communications and Other holds its EBIT margin at 16.1%.
  • The company spends $3.4B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $1.0B in FY2026 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $223.47 at our discount rate, Marvell Technology, Inc. would need about $80.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 77.1% a year from FY2026) with 19.9% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $25.3B and 19.9% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $223.47 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.50×$38B46.7%
39.5% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$50.6B57.7%
30.4% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$75.9B74.5%
21.0% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.19×At research margins$80.6B77.1%
19.9% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $8.2B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
5.3%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.7% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
3.19×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $80.6B (model: $25.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Data Center

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $75B (model: $23.8B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 59.2% (model: 20.1%).

Communications and Other

Revenue alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Margin alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
9.87%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
9.74%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 19 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2027Data Center$9.7BRuletarget (methodology §4.2), growth 59.0% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Revenue FY2030Data Center$23.8BGuidancefade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 15.0% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Data Center20.1%Rulelinear path to 20.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 40.5% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexData Center4.3%ReportedFY2026 capex $0.354B / $8.195B revenue; exceeds D&A. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthData Center3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2027Communications and Other$2.3BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 10.0% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Revenue FY2030Communications and Other$1.5BGuidancehold decline (methodology §4.2), growth -13.2% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Communications and Other16.1%Rulelinear path to 16.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -7.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexCommunications and Other4.3%ReportedFY2026 capex $0.354B / $8.195B revenue; exceeds D&A. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthCommunications and Other2.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates9.74%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates9.87%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates11.0%GuidanceAnnual non-GAAP normalized tax rate applied in FY2027 Q2; not the exceptional FY2026 GAAP tax benefit. FY2031 15% target is beyond the model target horizon. investor.marvell.com ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$3.9BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0001835632-26-000025 (filed 2026-08-28)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$5.0BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:ShortTermBorrowings + us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001835632-26-000025 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001835632-26-000025
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-08-01
Preferred stockBalance sheet$0.0BReportedpreferred shares converted into the economic share denominator; not deducted again sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗
SharesBalance sheet0.899BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-08-01 sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗
Dividends per yearShareholders$0.2BReportedMost recent annual ordinary cash dividends; verify continuation against the latest release; no future repurchases. × 0.899B shares sec.gov ↗ · content.equisolve.net ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.9212B quarter 2026-05-03..2026-08-01 · 0001835632-26-000025; point-in-time denominator retained
  • as-converted shares: 0.898578B at 2026-08-01; Point-in-time shares at 2026-08-01: ordinary common 876.8M (reported to 0.1M) +2.0M Series A preferred × exact certificate conversion ratio 10.8890 =898.578M common equivalents. This is not EPS weighted-average shares. Preferred dividends and liquidation participate pro rata as converted, with no additional $2B senior liquidation claim. Includes preferred, so its bridge claim is removed once; issuance proceeds are already in cash. Common-share rounding implies approximately 0.05M precision.; preferred shares are included in the denominator, not deducted again
  • cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.7%
  • Communications and Other: FY2030 margin set to 16.1% instead of 20.1% (§4.3 E2: 0.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR -7.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)

Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →