Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · MCD
McDonald's Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $203B
- FY2030 revenue
- $29B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $15.75 · 16×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.54% · 8.61%
How this is built. Hybrid research estimate: cited corporate revenue consensus plus management September 2026 NEXT margin target; restaurant counts, loyalty and systemwide sales are not corporate-revenue targets. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 2026
Reported Aug 4, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $2.83B | +2% | $1.57B | 55.6% |
| International Operated Markets | $3.60B | +4% | $1.72B | 47.8% |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | $0.67B | +12% | $42M | 6.3% |
- Global comparable sales+1.3%, systemwide salesabout 37B; corporate revenue 7.099B.
- GAAP operating profit 3.338B includes 52M mainly restructuring charges.
- Systemwide loyalty sales 40B trailing 12 months and activeusersnearly 220M are operational metrics, not incremental company revenue.
- No Q3 results released as ofresearch date; SeptemberNEXT financial outlook updates the long-term case.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | Margin | $12B | $83B | $116.89 | 12.8× EBIT | 64% |
| International Operated Markets | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $15B | $98B | $139.19 | 11.2× EBITDA | 64% |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | Margin | $2.6B | $4.7B | $6.58 | 13.2× EBIT | 64% |
| All businesses | $29B | $186B | $262.66 |
International Operated Markets: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 71.6% EBITDA a year against a 18.4% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $2.19 today after paying for its equipment.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$203B
- Less net debt at FY2030$23B
- Equity value at FY2030$180B
- ÷ (1 + 8.61%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$124B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$20B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.4%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$186B
- − borrowings$40B
- − finance leases$2.4B
- + cash and short-term investments$0.8B
- ÷ diluted shares0.708B
- Signal Ledger valuation$204.17
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $28B | $14B | $3.9B | $7.9B | $41B |
| FY2027 | $28B | $15B | $3.2B | $9.4B | $38B |
| FY2028 | $29B | $16B | $2.8B | $10B | $34B |
| FY2029 | $29B | $17B | $3.1B | $11B | $29B |
| FY2030 | $29B | $18B | $3B | $12B | $23B |
What must be true
- U.S. grows revenue from $11.0B in FY2026 to $11.8B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- International Operated Markets holds revenue roughly flat, from $14.2B in FY2026 to $14.9B in FY2030.
- International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate holds revenue roughly flat, from $2.7B in FY2026 to $2.6B in FY2030.
- U.S. raises its EBIT margin from 53.7% to 60.1%.
- International Operated Markets raises its EBITDA margin from 51.0% to 64.5%.
- International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate raises its EBIT margin from 8.4% to 14.8%.
- The company spends $16.1B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $41.4B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
- International Operated Markets earns 71.6% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 18.4% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
To reach $252.63 at our discount rate, McDonald's Corp would need about $35.5B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 6.2% a year from FY2026) with 51.8% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 64.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines — versus $29.3B and 51.8% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 64.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines in our research.
At the research price of $252.63 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.21×At research margins | $35.5B | 6.2% | 51.8% GAAP EBIT 64.5% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $44B | 12.1% | 44.0% GAAP EBIT 54.8% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $58.7B | 20.4% | 35.7% GAAP EBIT 44.5% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $88B | 33.3% | 27.2% GAAP EBIT 33.8% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $27.9B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 6.7%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.21×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.5% WACC · 8.6% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $35.5B (model: $29.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
International Operated Markets
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $20.3B (model: $14.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 82.5% (model: 64.5%).
U.S.
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $16.8B (model: $11.8B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 82.2% (model: 60.1%).
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.61%
- WACC
- 7.54%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.95 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 25 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026U.S. | $11.0B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.7% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030U.S. | $11.8B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.8% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030U.S. | 60.1% | Guidance | linear path to 60.1% by FY2030 (management target) corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexU.S. | 11.8% | Rule | Reported region capex, floored at allocated PP&E depreciation 1.6B*regionD&A/2.199B. Avoid treating total amortization as equipment maintenance; IDL actual capex 40M is below allocated PP&E maintenance proxy. corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthU.S. | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026International Operated Markets | $14.2B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.1% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030International Operated Markets | $14.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 1.2% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030International Operated Markets | 64.5% | Guidance | linear path to 64.5% by FY2030 (management target) — operating margin 53.2% + depreciation k ÷ life = 0.9 ÷ 8 = 11.3% of revenue → EBITDA 64.5% corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)International Operated Markets | 0.9 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 0.90 corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Equipment lifeInternational Operated Markets | 8 years | Rule | server life 7.5 years + 1 for long-lived assets corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Capex FY2026International Operated Markets | $2.3B | Guidance | FY2026 consolidated cash capex 3.7-3.9B midpoint 3.8B, before poolShare; September NEXT baseline 3B starts 2027 and must not replaceFY2026 guidance. × 0.6086181277860326 pool share corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthInternational Operated Markets | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | $2.7B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 11.5% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | $2.6B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth -0.5% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 14.8% | Guidance | linear path to 14.8% by FY2030 (management target) corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexInternational Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 12.4% | Rule | Reported region capex, floored at allocated PP&E depreciation 1.6B*regionD&A/2.199B. Avoid treating total amortization as equipment maintenance; IDL actual capex 40M is below allocated PP&E maintenance proxy. corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthInternational Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.54% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.61% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.95 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule) × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 22.0% | Guidance | FY2026 effective tax 21-23%, midpoint 22%. corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.8B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000063908-26-000073 (filed 2026-08-07) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $39.9B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; current liabilities fully tagged and reconciled; no current borrowing line; sec.gov ↗ |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $2.4B | Rule | Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-12-31 annual report amount of $2.352000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-30). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 1.3156% of equity market cap ($178.771480B = price $252.63 × 0.707641531B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. sec.gov ↗ |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.708B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000063908-26-000073 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $5.3B | Reported | Last four paid quarters Dec 2025,Mar/Jun/Sep 2026 at 1.86 each=7.44; later declarations not annualized. × 0.708B shares corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ · corporate.mcdonalds.com ↗ |
Research notes
- Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-12-31 annual report amount of $2.352000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-30). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 1.3156% of equity market cap ($178.771480B = price $252.63 × 0.707641531B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. Original SEC source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/63908/000006390826000035/mcd-20251231.htm
- unusable diluted-share unit: 711.1 shares vs cover 707641531; quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000063908-26-000073; comparison omitted, no inferred rescaling
- unusable diluted-share unit: 716.4 shares vs cover 707641531; FY 2025-12-31 diluted average; comparison omitted, no inferred rescaling
- International Operated Markets: 2 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- cost of equity 8.61% (β 0.95 = 0.8 floor relevered for debt/equity 0.24 (§4.5 leverage rule)), WACC 7.5%
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.236, net debt/EBITDA 2.96, β_lev 0.947, β 0.800 → 0.947; D $42.21B, E $178.77B, cash $0.82B, base EBITDA $13.99B
- International Operated Markets: k 0.9 (calibrated 0.90), life 8 years
- International Operated Markets: operating-margin target 53.2% converted to 64.5% EBITDA (k ÷ life 11.3%)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →