Signal Ledger valuation · LMT
Lockheed Martin Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 27, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $191B
- FY2030 revenue
- $99B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $41.66 · 20×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.36% · 7.87%
How this is built. No current public dated FY2030 revenue promise located; use FY2026 management guidance and cited FY2030 FactSet sales consensus with same-business historical margins after exceptional program losses, rather than a geopolitical peak. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 22, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 27, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics | $8.21B | +13% | $0.74B | 9.0% |
| Missiles and Fire Control | $4.50B | +24% | $0.63B | 14.0% |
| Rotary and Mission Systems | $4.51B | +3% | $0.52B | 11.6% |
| Space | $3.48B | +4% | $0.33B | 9.5% |
- Sales rose 11%; record backlog $292.0B includes $52.5B PAC-3 MSE multiyear award.
- FY2026 sales guide $80-$82B and free cash flow $7.8-$8.0B; capital expenditures $2.1-$2.3B.
- Segment operating profit $2.229B + net unallocated items $0.214B = GAAP operating profit $2.443B.
- F-35 Lot 20 costs exceeded contractual authorization and funding; absent additional funding, future operating results and cash flow are exposed.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics | Margin | $41B | $64B | $275.63 | 15.5× EBIT | 69% |
| Missiles and Fire Control | Margin | $18B | $40B | $172.60 | 16.0× EBIT | 67% |
| Rotary and Mission Systems | Margin | $23B | $41B | $177.20 | 16.5× EBIT | 70% |
| Space | Margin | $17B | $28B | $121.27 | 16.1× EBIT | 68% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$5B | −$21.71 | — | 72% |
| All businesses | $99B | $167B | $724.99 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$191B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$1.1B
- Equity value at FY2030$192B
- ÷ (1 + 7.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$139B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$12B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.4%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$167B
- − borrowings$20B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$6B
- ÷ diluted shares0.231B
- Signal Ledger valuation$662.06
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $81B | $8.6B | $2.2B | $5B | $14B |
| FY2027 | $85B | $9.7B | $2.3B | $5.9B | $12B |
| FY2028 | $90B | $11B | $2.4B | $6.9B | $8.9B |
| FY2029 | $94B | $12B | $2.6B | $7.9B | $4.5B |
| FY2030 | $99B | $14B | $2.7B | $9B | $1.1B cash |
What must be true
- Aeronautics grows revenue from $34.3B in FY2026 to $40.7B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Missiles and Fire Control grows revenue from $15.4B in FY2026 to $18.5B in FY2030 (1.2×).
- Rotary and Mission Systems grows revenue from $17.9B in FY2026 to $23.2B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Space grows revenue from $13.5B in FY2026 to $16.9B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- Aeronautics raises its EBIT margin from 6.9% to 11.6%.
- Missiles and Fire Control raises its EBIT margin from 13.8% to 15.1%.
- Rotary and Mission Systems raises its EBIT margin from 7.6% to 12.4%.
- Space raises its EBIT margin from 10.3% to 11.6%.
- The company spends $12.2B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $14.5B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
At our discount rate, the price assumes less than our research overall: one combination matching $589.91 is about $88.8B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 2.3% a year from FY2026) with 12.4% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $99.3B and 12.4% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $589.91 (2026-10-23), the price asks less than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.89×At research margins | $88.8B | 2.3% | 12.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $148.9B | 16.4% | 8.1% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $198.6B | 25.1% | 6.5% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $297.9B | 38.5% | 4.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $81B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.9%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 0.89×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.4% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $88.8B (model: $99.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Aeronautics
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $29.6B (model: $40.7B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 8.8% (model: 11.6%).
Rotary and Mission Systems
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $13.4B (model: $23.2B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 7.8% (model: 12.4%).
Missiles and Fire Control
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $10.5B (model: $18.5B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 9.2% (model: 15.1%).
Space
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $6.4B (model: $16.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 5.3% (model: 11.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.87%
- WACC
- 7.36%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 30 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Aeronautics | $34.3B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 13.2% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Aeronautics | $40.7B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.4% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Aeronautics | 11.6% | Consensus | linear path to 11.6% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAeronautics | 2.7% | Rule | FY2026 capex guide $2.1-$2.3B midpoint $2.2B / sales guide $80.0-$82.0B midpoint $81.0B. Existing allocation by sales retained; future flat intensity remains an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthAeronautics | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Missiles and Fire Control | $15.4B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.3% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Missiles and Fire Control | $18.5B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 4.7% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Missiles and Fire Control | 15.1% | Consensus | linear path to 15.1% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexMissiles and Fire Control | 2.7% | Rule | FY2026 capex guide $2.1-$2.3B midpoint $2.2B / sales guide $80.0-$82.0B midpoint $81.0B. Existing allocation by sales retained; future flat intensity remains an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthMissiles and Fire Control | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Rotary and Mission Systems | $17.9B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.2% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Rotary and Mission Systems | $23.2B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 6.8% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Rotary and Mission Systems | 12.4% | Consensus | linear path to 12.4% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexRotary and Mission Systems | 2.7% | Rule | FY2026 capex guide $2.1-$2.3B midpoint $2.2B / sales guide $80.0-$82.0B midpoint $81.0B. Existing allocation by sales retained; future flat intensity remains an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthRotary and Mission Systems | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Space | $13.5B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth 3.8% finanzen.net ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Space | $16.9B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 5.8% finanzen.net ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Space | 11.6% | Consensus | linear path to 11.6% by FY2030 (management target) finanzen.net ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSpace | 2.7% | Rule | FY2026 capex guide $2.1-$2.3B midpoint $2.2B / sales guide $80.0-$82.0B midpoint $81.0B. Existing allocation by sales retained; future flat intensity remains an assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthSpace | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 0.3% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.210B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 0.3% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $0.210B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.36% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.80 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 18.8% | Reported | Mean FY2025/2024/2023 cash taxes /pretax earnings:0.788/5.922,1.3/6.220,1.8/8.098. Older cash amounts rounded to 0.1B as disclosed; not GAAP15.3% or statutory 21%. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $6.0B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0001628280-26-066928 (filed 2026-10-22) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $20.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001628280-26-066928 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001628280-26-066928 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-09-27 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.231B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-10-19 cover page of 10-Q 0001628280-26-066928 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $3.2B | Reported | PaidDec 2025,Mar/Jun/Sep 2026 dividends 3.45 each sum 13.80; declared futureDec 2026 dividend 3.60 excluded. × 0.231B shares investors.lockheedmartin.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.2315B quarter 2026-06-29..2026-09-27 · 0001628280-26-066928; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $0.2B a year (0.3% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 7.87% (β 0.80 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.4%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →