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Signal Ledger valuation · KLAC

KLA Corp

What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$115.28−22% vs $147.83
Business value at FY2030
$190B
FY2030 revenue
$24B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$7.50 · 22×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
9.70% · 9.87%

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0000319201-26-000027 · price $147.83 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q4 FY2026

Reported Jul 28, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗ · filing ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$3.66B
Operating income$1.55B42.5% margin
Net income$1.36B
Diluted EPS$1.04
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Semiconductor Process Control$3.26B+13%——
Specialty Semiconductor Process$0.16B+13%——
PCB and Component Inspection$0.24B+56%——
  • Revenue was $3.658B (rounded to millions), and GAAP diluted EPS was $1.04.
  • June 11, 2026 ten-for-one split is reflected in every share and EPS number.
  • September-quarter revenue guidance is $4.0B ±$0.2B; non-GAAP gross margin guide is 62.5% ±1pp.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Semiconductor Process ControlMargin$22B$152B$116.0117.7× EBIT66%
Specialty Semiconductor ProcessMargin$0.8B$1.5B$1.1314.6× EBIT63%
PCB and Component InspectionMargin$1B$1.8B$1.3910.1× EBIT54%
All businesses$24B$155B$118.52

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$190B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$21B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$211B
  4. ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.0 years at the cost of equity$145B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$3.7B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.5%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$155B
  2. − borrowings$5.9B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$1.6B
  5. ÷ diluted shares1.307B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$115.28

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2027$16B$6.9B$0.5B$5.5B$0B
FY2028$18B$8.2B$0.5B$6.6B$5.5B cash
FY2029$21B$9.7B$0.6B$7.8B$12B cash
FY2030$24B$12B$0.7B$9.3B$21B cash

What must be true

  • Semiconductor Process Control grows revenue from $13.9B in FY2027 to $22.4B in FY2030 (1.6×).
  • Specialty Semiconductor Process grows revenue from $0.7B in FY2027 to $0.8B in FY2030 (1.2×).
  • PCB and Component Inspection revenue shrinks from $1.2B in FY2027 to $1.0B in FY2030 (-13.1%).
  • Semiconductor Process Control raises its EBIT margin from 44.8% to 47.0%.
  • Specialty Semiconductor Process raises its EBIT margin from 11.1% to 15.1%.
  • PCB and Component Inspection raises its EBIT margin from 14.4% to 18.4%.
  • The company spends $2.3B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $4.2B in FY2026 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $147.83 at our discount rate, KLA Corp would need about $31.4B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 23.3% a year from FY2026) with 44.8% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $24.2B and 44.8% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $147.83 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.30×At research margins$31.4B23.3%
44.8% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.50×$36.3B27.9%
39.0% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$48.4B37.4%
29.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$72.6B52.1%
20.0% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $13.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
8.3%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.7% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
1.30×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $31.4B (model: $24.2B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Semiconductor Process Control

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $28.9B (model: $22.4B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 60.2% (model: 47.0%).

PCB and Component Inspection

Revenue alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Margin alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.

Specialty Semiconductor Process

Revenue alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Margin alone
This business alone cannot get there within the search range.

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
9.87%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
9.70%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 23 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2027Semiconductor Process Control$13.9BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 13.2% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Revenue FY2030Semiconductor Process Control$22.4BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 17.3% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Semiconductor Process Control47.0%Guidancelinear path to 47.0% by FY2030 (management target) d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗ · ir.kla.com ↗
Maintenance capexSemiconductor Process Control2.9%RuleCash capex $0.376B is below reported D&A $0.394B. Use the D&A share as normalized maintenance capex floor, rather than assume perpetual disinvestment. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthSemiconductor Process Control3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2027Specialty Semiconductor Process$0.7BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 12.7% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Revenue FY2030Specialty Semiconductor Process$0.8BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 6.5% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Specialty Semiconductor Process15.1%Rulelinear path to 15.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexSpecialty Semiconductor Process2.9%RuleCash capex $0.376B is below reported D&A $0.394B. Use the D&A share as normalized maintenance capex floor, rather than assume perpetual disinvestment. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthSpecialty Semiconductor Process3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
Revenue FY2027PCB and Component Inspection$1.2BReportedtarget (methodology §4.2), growth 56.5% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Revenue FY2030PCB and Component Inspection$1.0BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth -4.6% d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
EBIT margin FY2030PCB and Component Inspection18.4%Rulelinear path to 18.4% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexPCB and Component Inspection2.9%RuleCash capex $0.376B is below reported D&A $0.394B. Use the D&A share as normalized maintenance capex floor, rather than assume perpetual disinvestment. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthPCB and Component Inspection3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates9.70%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates9.87%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates14.5%GuidanceManagement 2030 target model planning tax rate 14.5%. d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$1.6BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000319201-26-000027 (filed 2026-08-06)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$5.9BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings; current liabilities fully tagged and reconciled; no current borrowing line; As of June 30, 2026, we had no outstanding borrowings under our Revolving Credit Facility. As of June 30, 2026 and 2025, we had no outstanding borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility or Prior Revolving Credit Facility, respectively. As of June 30, 2026, we had no outstanding borrowings under our Revolving Credit Facility. As of June 30, 2026, we had no outstanding borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility. As of June 30, 2025, we had no outstanding borrowings under the Prior Revolving Credit Facility. sec.gov ↗
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30
SharesBalance sheet1.307BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-08-03 cover page of 10-K 0000319201-26-000027
Dividends per yearShareholders$1.1BReportedLast four payments on split-adjusted basis: $0.19 + $0.19 + $0.23 + $0.23. June 2026 split is 10:1. × 1.307B shares ir.kla.com ↗ · ir.kla.com ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 1.319633B FY 2026-06-30 diluted average; point-in-time denominator retained
  • cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.7%

Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →