Signal Ledger valuation · INTC
Intel Corp
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 27, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $404B
- FY2030 revenue
- $119B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $3.52 · 23×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.24% · 9.87%
How this is built. Intel has no long-range revenue or margin targets in force. This estimate follows sell-side consensus to 2030 (revenue about $119B, EBITDA about $37.5B) and management's goal of Foundry breakeven by the end of 2027. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2026
Reported Jul 23, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 27, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing and Physical AI | $8.88B | +13% | $2.34B | 26.4% |
| Data Center and AI | $6.26B | +59% | $2.47B | 39.5% |
| Intel Foundry | $5.76B | +31% | −$2.09B | -36.2% |
| All other | $0.70B | −33% | $0.23B | 32.8% |
- Consolidated revenue includes -$5.477B eliminations; Intel Products subtotal is not added again.
- Consolidated net loss $10.848B; attributable Intel net loss $11.033B. Includes $12.529B escrowed-share mark-to-market loss below operating income.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel Products and Foundry | Margin | $115B | $441B | $87.45 | 19.0× EBIT | 69% |
| Mobileye and other | Margin | $4B | $4.9B | $0.97 | 16.4× EBIT | 65% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$136B | −$26.97 | — | 67% |
| All businesses | $119B | $310B | $61.45 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$404B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$8.5B
- Equity value at FY2030$413B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$270B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.3%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$310B
- − borrowings$51B
- − finance leases$0B
- − preferred and minority claims$16B
- + cash and short-term investments$30B
- ÷ diluted shares5.044B
- Signal Ledger valuation$54.23
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $63B | $13B | $8B | $4.1B | $35B |
| FY2027 | $74B | $17B | $9.4B | $6.4B | $30B |
| FY2028 | $87B | $22B | $11B | $9.4B | $22B |
| FY2029 | $102B | $28B | $13B | $13B | $9.3B |
| FY2030 | $119B | $36B | $15B | $18B | $8.5B cash |
What must be true
- Intel Products and Foundry grows revenue from $60.5B in FY2026 to $115.4B in FY2030 (1.9×).
- Mobileye and other grows revenue from $2.8B in FY2026 to $4.0B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Intel Products and Foundry raises its EBIT margin from 15.6% to 26.0%.
- Mobileye and other raises its EBIT margin from 7.4% to 9.1%.
- The company spends $56.4B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $36.4B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $85.49 at our discount rate, Intel Corp would need about $182.8B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 30.4% a year from FY2026) with 25.4% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $119.4B and 25.4% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $85.49 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50× | $179.1B | 29.7% | 25.8% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.53×At research margins | $182.8B | 30.4% | 25.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $238.8B | 39.4% | 21.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $358.2B | 54.3% | 16.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $63.3B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.3%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.53×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.2% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $182.8B (model: $119.4B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Intel Products and Foundry
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $174.7B (model: $115.4B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 35.3% (model: 26.0%).
Mobileye and other
- Revenue alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
- Margin alone
- This business alone cannot get there within the search range.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 9.24%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 21 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Intel Products and Foundry | $60.5B | Consensus | target (methodology §4.2), growth 23.0% tikr.com ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Intel Products and Foundry | $115.4B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 17.5% tikr.com ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Intel Products and Foundry | 26.0% | Consensus | linear path to 26.0% by FY2030 (management target) tikr.com ↗ |
| Maintenance capexIntel Products and Foundry | 13.0% | Rule | capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1); original capex 0.125: consensus 2030 EBITDA $37.5B and free cash flow $22.7B imply capex of about $15B, 12.5% of revenue; 2026 gross capex is higher (~28% in FY2025) while existing fabs fill; equipment D&A: 2030 depreciation ≈ EBITDA $37.5B less operating profit ≈ $15B, ~13% of revenue (20% in FY2025); excludes separately modeled acquired amortization tikr.com ↗ |
| Terminal growthIntel Products and Foundry | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Mobileye and other | $2.8B | Reported | target (methodology §4.2), growth -21.0% Mobileye 2026 outlook and consensus growth ~10–12% a year |
| Revenue FY2030Mobileye and other | $4.0B | Guidance | target (methodology §4.2), growth 9.2% Mobileye 2026 outlook and consensus growth ~10–12% a year |
| EBIT margin FY2030Mobileye and other | 9.1% | Rule | linear path to 9.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 1.6816 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Maintenance capexMobileye and other | 4.0% | Rule | fabless Mobileye 10-K: capex ~3–4% of revenue |
| Terminal growthMobileye and other | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 7.6% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: cash company costs incl. stock compensation ($0.687B a quarter): $1.13B ÷ $16.13B revenue; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 7.6% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: cash company costs incl. stock compensation ($0.687B a quarter): $1.13B ÷ $16.13B revenue; grows with the lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.24% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 15.0% | Rule | approximate Intel non-GAAP tax rate (12–15% in recent guidance) |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $29.7B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue + us-gaap:AvailableForSaleSecuritiesDebtSecuritiesCurrent · 0000050863-26-000157 (filed 2026-07-24) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $50.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000050863-26-000157 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000050863-26-000157 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-27 |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $15.6B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0000050863-26-000157 (filed 2026-07-24) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 5.044B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-17 cover page of 10-Q 0000050863-26-000157 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Reported | none × 5.044B shares dividend suspended in 2024 |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 5.104B quarter 2026-03-29..2026-06-27 · 0000050863-26-000157; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $4.0B a year (7.0% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.2%
- §4.5 leverage: D/E 0.117, net debt/EBITDA 3.99, β_lev 0.880, β 1.200 → 1.200; D $50.54B, E $431.21B, cash $29.73B, base EBITDA $5.21B
- Intel Products and Foundry: capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1)
- Mobileye and other: FY2030 margin set to 9.1% instead of 11.4% (§4.3 E2: 1.6816 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 2.3% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Intel Products and Foundry: capex raised to D&A floor (§3.1)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →