Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · GS
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Sep 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $193B
- FY2030 net income
- $17B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $57.83 · 11×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 9.84% · 9.84%
Latest quarter in this research: Q3 2026
Reported Oct 13, 2026 for the quarter to Sep 30, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Banking & Markets | $13.5B | +32% | — | — |
| Asset & Wealth Management | $5.05B | +14% | — | — |
| Platform Solutions | $0.17B | −72% | — | — |
- Reported pretax income after funding costs/provisions was $7.003B; operatingIncomeB is null because bank pretax income is not industrial EBIT. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/886982/000088698226000529/a3q26gsearningsresults.htm
- Net revenues 18.679B increased 23%; reported diluted EPS was 17.01 and annualized common ROE was 18.7%.
- Asset & Wealth Management net revenues were 5.051B; management and other fees 3.587B. Segment growth uses the release's stated comparable figures, rather than assuming old evidence segment classifications are unchanged.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs (firm-wide)Investment banking, markets and wealth | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $181B | $611.59 | 1.7× P/B | 21% |
| All businesses | — | $181B | $611.59 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$193B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$193B
- ÷ (1 + 9.84%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$129B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$51B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$181B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.296B
- Signal Ledger valuation$611.59
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $0B | $21B | $0B | $17B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $0B | $21B | $0B | $17B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $0B | $21B | $0B | $14B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $0B | $21B | $0B | $15B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $0B | $21B | $0B | $15B | $0B |
What must be true
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- Goldman Sachs (firm-wide) keeps earning 15.0% on its equity, against a 9.84% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $891.30 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.3%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.8% WACC · 9.8% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.84%
- WACC
- 9.84%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.19 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 17 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | $110.2B | Reported | Q3 selected data common shareholders equity 110.151B, excluding preferred; retain goodwill/intangibles because target is common ROE, not ROTE. sec.gov ↗ |
| Return on equity FY2026Goldman Sachs (firm-wide) | 15.0% | Reported | FY2025 common net earnings 16.300B divided by reported average monthly common equity 108.726B = 14.99%, reported as 15.0%. Retains all company costs and Apple Card transition effects. sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Return on equity FY2030Goldman Sachs (firm-wide) | 15.0% | Guidance | straight line to the 15.0% FY2029 target, then held (methodology §4.6) sec.gov ↗ |
| Payout through FY2027Goldman Sachs (firm-wide) | 102.9% | Reported | FY2025 common capital returned 16.78B (12.36B buybacks plus 4.42B common dividends) divided by net earnings applicable to common 16.300B = 102.94%. Do not use total net earnings 17.176B, which includes 0.876B belonging to preferred holders, to force this below 100% Retained above 100% with finite capital budget, no clipping or denominator change. sec.gov ↗ |
| Last excess-distribution yearGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | FY2027 | Rule | Preserve existing analyst-selected end FY2027; refreshed September T0 leaves Q4 FY2026 plus FY2027 (1.25 forward years). Not promised repurchases. sec.gov ↗ |
| Sustainable payout thereafterGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | 86.7% | Rule | Preserve existing sustainable payout 86.6666666667% from FY2028: retain 2% equity growth capital at target 15.0% return, payout=1-2%/target. Research assumption, not management capital-return guidance. sec.gov ↗ |
| Excess-capital budgetGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | $1.0B | Rule | Preserve existing 1B budget. September preliminary CET1 101.4B less 11.4% unchanged standardized requirement (June 10-Q Note 20) times 817B RWA =8.262B headroom; retain 7.262B buffer. Both balance amounts are rounded; leverage/subsidiary constraints and future RWA/losses can reduce capacity. sec.gov ↗ |
| Protected equity floorGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | $109.2B | Rule | Preserve existing 1B deployable capital budget and protect latest same-basis opening equity 110.151B less 1B = 109.151B. Updating the same formula, no new capital-allocation judgment. CET1 is not book equity. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthGoldman Sachs (firm-wide) | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 9.84% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.84% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.19 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 20.4% | Reported | Latest nine-month effective income tax rate 20.4%, as reported; no fixed full-year forward effective-rate guidance located. After-tax ROE drives this financial line, so the rate only labels pretax display values. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.296B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-09-30 sec.gov ↗ |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Common dividends and repurchases are counted in payoutRatio. Zero disables the ordinary-company dividend add-on and does not assert that the bank pays no dividends.: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) sec.gov ↗ |
Research notes
- balance sheet and shares at 2026-09-30 from the research (newer than the XBRL 2026-06-30); replaced automatically once the filing is in XBRL
- share-count comparison: 0.3049B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000886982-26-000297; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 9.84% (β 1.19 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.8%
- Goldman Sachs (firm-wide): residual income on $110.2B of common equity, earnings = ROE × equity, payout 103% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →