Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · DIS
Walt Disney Co
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 27, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $269B
- FY2030 revenue
- $123B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $9.85 · 13×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.52% · 9.87%
How this is built. Disney provides FY2026/FY2027 EPS outlook and near-term SVOD margin guidance but no dated consolidated or segment revenue target; consensus revenue and reported business trends replace long-range targets while exact near-term segment OI is calibrated to guidance. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linear NetworksEntertainment | Margin | $4.6B | $9.3B | $5.37 | 4.2× EBIT | 28% |
| Direct-to-consumerEntertainment | Margin | $29B | $21B | $12.29 | 9.3× EBIT | 59% |
| Content sales and licensingEntertainment | Margin | $14B | $12B | $6.70 | 11.8× EBIT | 67% |
| Sports | Margin | $19B | $41B | $24.00 | 11.6× EBIT | 61% |
| Experiences | Capacity (capex follows demand) | $57B | $142B | $82.39 | 8.8× EBITDA | 84% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$18B | −$10.61 | — | 63% |
| All businesses | $123B | $207B | $120.15 |
Experiences: does new capacity pay?
Each $1 of equipment earns 16.4% EBITDA a year against a 11.7% break-even. Every $1 of new annual revenue is worth $0.86 today after paying for its equipment.
Needs $1.5B of funding before it pays for itself; that lands in net debt.
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$269B
- Less net debt at FY2030$42B
- Equity value at FY2030$228B
- ÷ (1 + 9.87%)^4.3 years at the cost of equity$152B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$7.6B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.2%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$207B
- − borrowings$46B
- − finance leases$0.2B
- − preferred and minority claims$6.8B
- + cash and short-term investments$5.2B
- ÷ diluted shares1.727B
- Signal Ledger valuation$92.46
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026part already reported | $102B | $22B | $8.5B | $8.5B | $46B |
| FY2027 | $106B | $24B | $15B | $2.9B | $47B |
| FY2028 | $111B | $26B | $15B | $4.6B | $46B |
| FY2029 | $117B | $29B | $16B | $5.2B | $44B |
| FY2030 | $123B | $31B | $18B | $6B | $42B |
What must be true
- Entertainment holds revenue roughly flat, from $45.2B in FY2026 to $46.9B in FY2030.
- Sports grows revenue from $16.8B in FY2026 to $18.9B in FY2030 (1.1×).
- Experiences grows revenue from $39.7B in FY2026 to $57.5B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- Linear Networks holds its EBIT margin at 33.1%.
- Direct-to-consumer raises its EBIT margin from 7.4% to 8.6%.
- Content sales and licensing raises its EBIT margin from 4.6% to 8.6%.
- Sports raises its EBIT margin from 17.8% to 20.9%.
- Experiences raises its EBITDA margin from 37.3% to 39.5%.
- The company spends $73.3B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $47.8B in FY2025 and stays financeable.
- Experiences earns 16.4% EBITDA a year on each dollar of equipment, above the 11.7% it needs to cover depreciation and the cost of capital.
What the price implies
To reach $113.13 at our discount rate, Walt Disney Co would need about $164.6B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 12.8% a year from FY2026) with 13.9% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 39.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines — versus $123.3B and 13.9% GAAP EBIT margin on margin-based lines and 39.5% EBITDA margin on capacity lines in our research.
At the research price of $113.13 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33×At research margins | $164.6B | 12.8% | 13.9% GAAP EBIT 39.5% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $185B | 16.2% | 13.4% GAAP EBIT 38.1% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $246.7B | 24.8% | 12.4% GAAP EBIT 35.3% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $370B | 38.1% | 11.4% GAAP EBIT 32.4% EBITDA | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $101.6B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- 7.7%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.33×
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 8.5% WACC · 9.9% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $164.6B (model: $123.3B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Experiences
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $97.8B (model: $57.5B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBITDA margin would need to reach 44.8% (model: 39.5%).
Entertainment
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $95.1B (model: $46.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 19.3% (model: 11.0%).
Sports
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $36.6B (model: $18.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 39.0% (model: 20.9%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 9.87%
- WACC
- 8.52%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 38 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2026Linear Networks | $7.8B | Reported | hold decline (methodology §4.2), growth -12.4% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Linear Networks | $4.6B | Reported | hold decline (methodology §4.2), growth -12.4% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Linear Networks | 33.1% | Rule | linear path to 33.1% by FY2030 (declining line without a management target holds its latest margin) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexLinear Networks | 2.7% | Reported | Entertainment FY2025 PP&E capex $1.155B / external revenue, allocated proportionally. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthLinear Networks | -3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a declining line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Direct-to-consumer | $28.0B | Rule | target (methodology §4.2), growth 13.8% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Direct-to-consumer | $28.7B | Guidance | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 0.6% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Direct-to-consumer | 8.6% | Rule | linear path to 8.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 3.2375 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexDirect-to-consumer | 2.7% | Reported | Entertainment FY2025 PP&E capex $1.155B / external revenue, allocated proportionally. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthDirect-to-consumer | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Content sales and licensing | $9.3B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 10.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Content sales and licensing | $13.7B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 10.0% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Content sales and licensing | 8.6% | Rule | linear path to 8.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 10.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexContent sales and licensing | 2.7% | Reported | Entertainment FY2025 PP&E capex $1.155B / external revenue, allocated proportionally. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthContent sales and licensing | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Sports | $16.8B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.1% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Sports | $18.9B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 3.1% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Sports | 20.9% | Rule | linear path to 20.9% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 3.1949 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexSports | 0.3% | Rule | Sports reported PP&E capex $0.003B is below D&A $0.048B. Set maintenance reinvestment at D&A per c >= d rule; not a forecast of zero economic rights spending. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthSports | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2026Experiences | $39.7B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 9.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Experiences | $57.5B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 9.7% stockanalysis.com ↗ · sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| EBITDA margin FY2030Experiences | 39.5% | Rule | linear path to 39.5% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 9.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) — operating margin 31.6% + depreciation k ÷ life = 2.4 ÷ 31 = 7.7% of revenue → EBITDA 39.4% sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment per $1 of revenue (k)Experiences | 2.4 | Rule | methodology §4.4: in-service equipment + FY1 capex over FY2 revenue = 2.38 sec.gov ↗ |
| Equipment lifeExperiences | 31 years | Rule | server life 30 years + 1 for long-lived assets sec.gov ↗ |
| Capex FY2026Experiences | $7.2B | Guidance | Reiterated FY2026 total capex approximately $9B. × 0.801221336 pool share sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthExperiences | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2026Company costs | 1.5% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: TTM corporate shared cash expense = FY2025 $1.646B - FY2025 nine-month $1.265B + FY2026 nine-month $1.018B = $1.399B; normalize to annual model base revenue $94.425B because unallocated evidence is absent and the bridge mixes impairment/amortization.; grows with the non-infrastructure lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 1.2% | Reported | company costs outside segment profit, cash only: TTM corporate shared cash expense = FY2025 $1.646B - FY2025 nine-month $1.265B + FY2026 nine-month $1.018B = $1.399B; normalize to annual model base revenue $94.425B because unallocated evidence is absent and the bridge mixes impairment/amortization.; grows with the non-infrastructure lines' revenue sec.gov ↗ · sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.52% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 9.87% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.20 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 29.2% | Reported | No usable tax guidance in the retrieved release: mean FY2025/FY2024/FY2023 cash taxes / pretax income = mean(1.221/12.003, 3.963/7.569, 1.193/4.769). Avoid FY2025 negative GAAP ETR distorted by deferred-tax changes. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $5.2B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0001744489-26-000057 (filed 2026-08-05) |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $46.0B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:LongTermDebtCurrent · 0001744489-26-000057 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0001744489-26-000057 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.2B | Rule | Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-09-27 annual report amount of $0.162000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-27). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.0829% of equity market cap ($195.340089B = price $113.13 × 1.726686902B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. sec.gov ↗ |
| Minority interestsBalance sheet | $6.8B | Reported | noncontrolling interests at book value us-gaap:MinorityInterest · 0001744489-26-000057 (filed 2026-08-05) |
| SharesBalance sheet | 1.727B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-29 cover page of 10-Q 0001744489-26-000057 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $2.2B | Reported | Trailing four completed reported quarters through June 2026 include July 2025 payment $0.50 and January 2026 payment $0.75 = $1.25. July 22, 2026 payment is after this quarter-end and excluded; $1.50 is the forward annual declaration. × 1.727B shares investors.thewaltdisneycompany.com ↗ |
Research notes
- Finance leases: carry forward the 2025-09-27 annual report amount of $0.162000B; not separately disclosed in the current period (2026-06-27). Separate from ordinary borrowings; 0.0829% of equity market cap ($195.340089B = price $113.13 × 1.726686902B economic shares), within the 2% limit. Latest reported amount held unchanged; no estimate from subsequent principal payments or additions. Original SEC source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448925000155/dis-20250927.htm
- share-count comparison: 1.743B quarter 2026-03-29..2026-06-27 · 0001744489-26-000057; point-in-time denominator retained
- CAPEX_HISTORY assumptions (USD billions): 1995: 3.623000, 1996: 3.623000, 1997: 3.623000, 1998: 3.623000, 1999: 3.623000, 2000: 3.623000, 2001: 3.623000, 2002: 3.623000, 2003: 3.623000, 2004: 3.623000, 2005: 3.623000, 2006: 3.623000, 2007: 3.623000, 2008: 3.623000, 2009: 3.623000, 2010: 3.623000, 2011: 3.623000, 2012: 3.623000, 2013: 3.623000, 2014: 3.623000, 2015: 3.623000, 2016: 3.623000. FY 1995 reconstructed from earliest FY 2017: capex $3.623B / revenue $55.137B (6.5709%); no vintage revenue: hold anchor capex constant; public history shorter than asset life; SEC 0001744489-19-000225; Valuation methodology §9. Each vintage retains its own basis / ref / reason in the model.
- unallocated company costs: $1.4B a year (1.5% of trailing revenue), growing with the non-infrastructure lines, valued as one negative business
- Experiences: 3 quarter(s) of FY2026 already reported; counted as actuals
- cost of equity 9.87% (β 1.20 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.5%
- Direct-to-consumer: FY2030 margin set to 8.6% instead of 9.4% (§4.3 E2: 3.2375 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Sports: FY2030 margin set to 20.9% instead of 21.7% (§4.3 E2: 3.1949 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 3.1% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
- Experiences: k 2.4 (calibrated 2.38), life 31 years
- Experiences: operating-margin target 31.6% converted to 39.4% EBITDA (k ÷ life 7.7%)
- Experiences: FY2030 margin set to 39.5% instead of 39.4% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 9.7% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence)
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →