Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jul 25, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $344B
- FY2030 revenue
- $102B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $6.44 · 15×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 8.53% · 8.84%
How this is built. FY2027 annual guidance supersedes the old FY2026-27 framework; no verified later absolute revenue target, so use geographic trends and rule-based fade toFY2030. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.
Latest quarter in this research: Q4 FY2026
Reported Aug 12, 2026 for the quarter to Jul 25, 2026 (company release ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).
| Segment | Revenue | vs a year ago | Operating income | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $10.4B | +18% | — | — |
| EMEA | $4.35B | +19% | — | — |
| APJC | $2.51B | +14% | — | — |
- FY2027 sales guidance$72.2-73.4B.
- FY2026 AI hyperscaler infrastructure revenue about$4B; FY2027 outlook$7.5B.
- Q4 product orders rose 35%.
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | Margin | $64B | $624B | $158.24 | 16.3× EBIT | 65% |
| EMEA | Margin | $23B | $240B | $60.88 | 15.7× EBIT | 64% |
| APJC | Margin | $15B | $157B | $39.76 | 17.2× EBIT | 66% |
| Company costsHead-office costs no segment carries, valued as one negative business | Cost line | — | −$706B | −$179.07 | — | 69% |
| All businesses | $102B | $315B | $79.81 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$344B
- Plus net cash at FY2030$40B
- Equity value at FY2030$384B
- ÷ (1 + 8.84%)^4.0 years at the cost of equity$274B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$22B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 1.7%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$315B
- − borrowings$30B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$16B
- ÷ diluted shares3.943B
- Signal Ledger valuation$76.36
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2027 | $73B | $20B | $1.6B | $16B | $5B |
| FY2028 | $82B | $23B | $1.8B | $18B | $6.7B cash |
| FY2029 | $92B | $27B | $2.1B | $21B | $22B cash |
| FY2030 | $102B | $31B | $2.3B | $24B | $40B cash |
What must be true
- Americas grows revenue from $44.6B in FY2027 to $63.9B in FY2030 (1.4×).
- EMEA grows revenue from $18.0B in FY2027 to $23.1B in FY2030 (1.3×).
- APJC grows revenue from $10.2B in FY2027 to $15.1B in FY2030 (1.5×).
- Americas raises its EBIT margin from 65.1% to 69.1%.
- EMEA raises its EBIT margin from 71.2% to 75.2%.
- APJC raises its EBIT margin from 66.6% to 70.6%.
- The company spends $7.8B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- Net debt peaks at $13.6B in FY2026 and stays financeable.
What the price implies
To reach $104.89 at our discount rate, Cisco Systems, Inc. would need about $143B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 22.6% a year from FY2026) with 70.7% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $102.1B and 70.7% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.
At the research price of $104.89 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
If sales and margins changed together
Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.
| FY2030 sales factor | FY2030 sales | FY2026–30 CAGR | Required FY2030 margin | Requirement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.40×At research margins | $143B | 22.6% | 70.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 1.50× | $153.1B | 24.7% | 69.4% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 2.00× | $204.1B | 34.0% | 64.7% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
| 3.00× | $306.2B | 48.3% | 59.9% GAAP EBIT | Within margin guardrails |
CAGR uses $63.3B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.
- Implied discount rate
- —
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- 1.40×
No discount rate in the search range makes this model equal the price. Model: 8.5% WACC · 8.8% cost of equity.
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $143B (model: $102.1B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
If only one business changed
Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.
Americas
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $105.8B (model: $63.9B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 81.4% (model: 69.1%).
EMEA
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $55.9B (model: $23.1B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 110.1% (model: 75.2%).
APJC
- Revenue alone
- FY2030 revenue would need to reach $52.4B (model: $15.1B).
- Margin alone
FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 120.5% (model: 70.6%).
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 8.84%
- WACC
- 8.53%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 52 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue FY2027Americas | $44.6B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 18.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030Americas | $63.9B | Reported | fade high growth (methodology §4.2), growth 10.7% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030Americas | 69.1% | Rule | linear path to 69.1% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 14.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAmericas | 2.2% | Rule | Capital spending allocation, at least PPE depreciation; explicit reinvestment assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2027Americas | $0.9B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2027 1.534B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.5968954299971575. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2028Americas | $0.9B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2028 1.451B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.5968954299971575. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2029Americas | $0.8B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2029 1.329B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.5968954299971575. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2030Americas | $0.6B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2030 1.04B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.5968954299971575. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2031Americas | $0.3B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2031 0.586B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.5968954299971575. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2032Americas | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2033Americas | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2034Americas | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization already expensed in FY1Americas | $0.0B | Reported | T0 is the FY2026 year-end, before FY2027 starts; none of the FY2027 purchased-intangible schedule has elapsed. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthAmericas | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027EMEA | $18.0B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030EMEA | $23.1B | Rule | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 8.6% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030EMEA | 75.2% | Rule | linear path to 75.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 8.6% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexEMEA | 2.2% | Rule | Capital spending allocation, at least PPE depreciation; explicit reinvestment assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2027EMEA | $0.4B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2027 1.534B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.26234090263083093. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2028EMEA | $0.4B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2028 1.451B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.26234090263083093. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2029EMEA | $0.3B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2029 1.329B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.26234090263083093. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2030EMEA | $0.3B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2030 1.04B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.26234090263083093. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2031EMEA | $0.2B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2031 0.586B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.26234090263083093. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2032EMEA | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2033EMEA | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2034EMEA | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization already expensed in FY1EMEA | $0.0B | Reported | T0 is the FY2026 year-end, before FY2027 starts; none of the FY2027 purchased-intangible schedule has elapsed. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthEMEA | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Revenue FY2027APJC | $10.2B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 14.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| Revenue FY2030APJC | $15.1B | Reported | hold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 14.0% sec.gov ↗ |
| EBIT margin FY2030APJC | 70.6% | Rule | linear path to 70.6% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 14.0% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗ |
| Maintenance capexAPJC | 2.2% | Rule | Capital spending allocation, at least PPE depreciation; explicit reinvestment assumption. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2027APJC | $0.2B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2027 1.534B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.1407636673720115. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2028APJC | $0.2B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2028 1.451B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.1407636673720115. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2029APJC | $0.2B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2029 1.329B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.1407636673720115. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2030APJC | $0.1B | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2030 1.04B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.1407636673720115. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2031APJC | $82.488M | Rule | Note 5 company purchased-intangible amortization FY2031 0.586B × fixed FY2026 geography revenue share 0.1407636673720115. Mechanical allocation; total company addback is the disclosed schedule. ALL amortization remains deducted in the GAAP corporate/COGS bridge and is excluded from .7B PPE maintenance D&A; no SBC, restructuring or contract-commission addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2032APJC | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2033APJC | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization add-back FY2034APJC | $0.0B | Rule | No addback credit for the unallocated 1.617B thereafter balance: fiscal amounts and attribution are not disclosed. This is conservative truncation to zero credit under the finite-addback rule, NOT a statement that actual amortization is zero. No terminal addback. sec.gov ↗ |
| Acquired amortization already expensed in FY1APJC | $0.0B | Reported | T0 is the FY2026 year-end, before FY2027 starts; none of the FY2027 purchased-intangible schedule has elapsed. sec.gov ↗ |
| Terminal growthAPJC | 2.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a mature line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2027Company costs | 42.7% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $27.025B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| Share of revenue FY2034Company costs | 42.7% | Rule | Annual cost baseline $27.025B; scales with operating revenue; full reconciliation in research sec.gov ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 8.53% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 8.84% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.99 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 14.5% | Guidance | FY2027 GAAP effective-tax guidance 14.5%; nonGAAP18.5% not mixed into GAAP earnings. sec.gov ↗ |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $15.9B | Reported | cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments sec.gov ↗ |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $29.5B | Reported | borrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:DebtCurrent · 0000858877-26-000132 + us-gaap:LongTermDebtNoncurrent · 0000858877-26-000132 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | no finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-07-25 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 3.943B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-08-27 cover page of 10-K 0000858877-26-000132 |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $6.6B | Reported | Last four PAID regular dividends after October 21, 2026 payment: January .41 + April .42 + July .42 + October .42 = 1.67; no future authorized repurchases. × 3.943B shares investor.cisco.com ↗ |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 3.987B FY 2026-07-25 diluted average; point-in-time denominator retained
- unallocated company costs: $27.0B a year (42.7% of trailing revenue), growing with the lines, valued as one negative business
- cost of equity 8.84% (β 0.99 after Blume adjustment), WACC 8.5%
Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →