Signal Ledger LabSignal Ledger valuation · CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
What the shares are worth today on our research (management’s own targets for each business): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.
- Business value at FY2030
- $11B
- FY2030 net income
- $0.5B
- FY2030 EPS · P/E
- $1.84 · 23×
- Discount rate (WACC · equity)
- 7.90% · 7.90%
What each business is worth
| Business | Model | FY2030 revenue | Value today | Per share | 2030 multiple | Value from beyond FY2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circle (USDC issuer, firm-wide)Stablecoin network | Return on equity (residual income) | — | $8.7B | $34.24 | 3.0× P/B | 49% |
| All businesses | — | $8.7B | $34.24 |
From 2030 back to today
- Enterprise value at end of FY2030$11B
- Less net debt at FY2030$0B
- Equity value at FY2030$11B
- ÷ (1 + 7.90%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$7.5B
- + dividends paid on the way, discounted$1.2B
This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 0.0%, inside our 5% tolerance.
From businesses to one share
- All businesses, valued today$8.7B
- − borrowings$0B
- − finance leases$0B
- + cash and short-term investments$0B
- ÷ diluted shares0.254B
- Signal Ledger valuation$34.24
Valued on common equity: a financial company's deposits, borrowings, cash and preferred stock are part of the balance sheet it earns its return on, so they are not deducted again.
Year by year to FY2030
| Fiscal year | Revenue | EBITDA | Capex | Free cash flow | Net debt at year end |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 | $3.1B | $0.2B | $0B | $0.2B | $0B |
| FY2027 | $3.5B | $0.3B | $0B | $0.2B | $0B |
| FY2028 | $3.9B | $0.4B | $0B | $0.3B | $0B |
| FY2029 | $4.4B | $0.5B | $0B | $0.4B | $0B |
| FY2030 | $5B | $0.6B | $0B | $0.5B | $0B |
What must be true
- Stablecoin network grows revenue from $3.1B in FY2026 to $5.0B in FY2030 (1.6×).
- The company spends $0.0B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
- The company stays net cash throughout (lowest point $0.0B of net cash in FY2025).
- Circle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) moves its return on equity from 5.4% to 13.3% by FY2030, against a 7.90% cost of equity.
What the price implies
Joint sales and margin requirements do not apply to this financial model.
At the research price of $86.62 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.
- Implied discount rate
- 5.0%
- All-business FY2030 sales factor
- —
The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 7.9% WACC · 7.9% cost of equity.
This model has no margin or capacity revenue paths to scale. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.
Single-business sales and margin comparisons do not apply to asset, financial, project or REIT valuation lines.
Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.
The discount rate
- Cost of equity
- 7.90%
- WACC
- 7.90%
- 10-year Treasury · model / spot
- 3.87% · 5.13%
r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.81 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)
methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded
The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.
Every input, with its source
Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
| Input | Value | Basis | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common equityCircle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) | $3.5B | Reported | common equity at the balance-sheet date us-gaap:StockholdersEquity at 2026-06-30 (10-Q 0001876042-26-000248); no preferred outstanding |
| Net income FY2026Circle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) | $0.2B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 7.8% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 21% tax) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Net income FY2030Circle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) | $0.5B | Rule | revenue × pre-tax margin 11.8% (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 12.8% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) × (1 − 21% tax) Valuation methodology §4.3 · Read methodology ↗ |
| Payout ratioCircle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) | 100.0% | Rule | asset-light issuer: reserves belong to USDC holders, so growth does not need retained equity rule 16 |
| Terminal growthCircle (USDC issuer, firm-wide) | 3.0% | Rule | methodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗ |
| WACCDiscount rates | 7.90% | Rule | methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21 |
| Cost of equityDiscount rates | 7.90% | Rule | r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 0.81 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 14 monthly returns vs SPY, 2025-07..2026-09 (adjusted closes) |
| Tax rateDiscount rates | 21.0% | Rule | the low current rate comes from loss carryforwards that run out; the federal statutory rate is used for the long run 26 U.S.C. §11(b); 10-Q Q2 2026 Note: six-month effective rate 5.1% because NOL carryforwards and stock deductions offset U.S. taxable income |
| Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | cash: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| BorrowingsBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | borrowings and deposits: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| Finance leasesBalance sheet | $0.0B | Reported | finance leases: inside the common equity the financial line is valued on (methodology §3.7) balance sheet 2026-06-30 |
| SharesBalance sheet | 0.254B | Reported | shares outstanding as of 2026-07-30 cover page of 10-Q 0001876042-26-000248 (3 share classes summed) |
| Dividends per yearShareholders | $0.0B | Rule | Circle pays no dividend: paid out of the financial line's earnings at its payout ratio (methodology §3.7) no dividends declared |
Research notes
- share-count comparison: 0.268637B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0001876042-26-000248; point-in-time denominator retained
- valued on common equity (financial lines): cash, borrowings, deposits and preferred are inside it, not deducted again; dividends come from the payout ratio
- cost of equity 7.90% (β 0.81 after Blume adjustment), WACC 7.9%
- Circle (USDC issuer, firm-wide): residual income on $3.5B of common equity, earnings = revenue × pre-tax margin, payout 100% (methodology §3.7)
Signal Ledger research under one stated scenario — management's targets are delivered — not a forecast that they will be and not investment advice. The research desk (Claude Opus 5.5) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →