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Signal Ledger valuation · CDNS

Cadence Design Systems Inc

What the shares are worth today on our research (cited consensus, company plans and peers, since management sets no usable targets): every line valued at the end of FY2030, net debt rolled forward, then discounted back to Jun 30, 2026.

Signal Ledger valuation$160.51−48% vs $309.65
Business value at FY2030
$56B
FY2030 revenue
$11B
FY2030 EPS · P/E
$10.51 · 22×
Discount rate (WACC · equity)
9.15% · 9.31%

How this is built. No verified dated public long-range revenue target; use FY2026 company guidance, the S&P Global FY2027 revenue consensus, and rule defaults thereafter. Each input below shows its basis: consensus, company plan, peer or rule.

Researched Oct 23, 2026 from SEC filing 0000813672-26-000092 · price $309.65 at research time · Valuation methodology

Latest quarter in this research: Q2 FY2026

Reported Jul 27, 2026 for the quarter to Jun 30, 2026 (company release ↗ · filing ↗). This valuation already reflects these results (researched Oct 23, 2026).

Revenue$1.58B
Operating income$0.45B28.4% margin
Net income$0.37B
Diluted EPS$1.33
SegmentRevenuevs a year agoOperating incomeMargin
Computational Software and Services$1.58B+24%$0.45B28.4%
  • Revenue was $1.584451B and GAAP operating margin 28.4%; GAAP diluted EPS $1.33.
  • FY2026 outlook raised to $6.26–6.34B revenue and 27.75–28.75% GAAP operating margin.
  • SBC was $146.89M and acquired-intangible amortization $79.922M; both remain expenses in the valuation.

What each business is worth

BusinessModelFY2030 revenueValue todayPer share2030 multipleValue from beyond FY2030
Computational Software and ServicesMargin$11B$45B$164.2916.4× EBIT67%
All businesses$11B$45B$164.29

From 2030 back to today

  1. Enterprise value at end of FY2030$56B
  2. Plus net cash at FY2030$8.4B
  3. Equity value at FY2030$65B
  4. ÷ (1 + 9.31%)^4.5 years at the cost of equity$43B
  5. + dividends paid on the way, discounted$0B

This reconciliation checks the published Signal Ledger valuation against the net-debt path. The difference is 2.1%, inside our 5% tolerance.

From businesses to one share

  1. All businesses, valued today$45B
  2. − borrowings$2.5B
  3. − finance leases$0B
  4. + cash and short-term investments$1.4B
  5. ÷ diluted shares0.275B
  6. Signal Ledger valuation$160.51

Year by year to FY2030

Fiscal yearRevenueEBITDACapexFree cash flowNet debt at year end
FY2026$6.3B$1.9B$0.2B$1.4B$0.4B
FY2027$7.2B$2.2B$0.2B$1.6B$1.2B cash
FY2028$8.2B$2.6B$0.2B$1.9B$3.2B cash
FY2029$9.3B$3.1B$0.2B$2.2B$5.5B cash
FY2030$11B$3.6B$0.3B$2.6B$8.4B cash

What must be true

  • Computational Software and Services grows revenue from $6.3B in FY2026 to $10.6B in FY2030 (1.7×).
  • Computational Software and Services raises its EBIT margin from 28.2% to 32.2%.
  • The company spends $1.1B of capital expenditure through FY2030.
  • Net debt peaks at $1.0B in FY2025 and stays financeable.

What the price implies

To reach $309.65 at our discount rate, Cadence Design Systems Inc would need about $21B of FY2030 sales (growth of about 35.1% a year from FY2026) with 32.2% GAAP EBIT margin — versus $10.6B and 32.2% GAAP EBIT margin in our research.

At the research price of $309.65 (2026-10-23), the price asks more than our assumptions overall. These are operating requirements at that price, not additional valuations or forecasts.

If sales and margins changed together

Each row matches the same research price at our unchanged discount rate, by scaling every operating line's margin by one common factor. Sales cover margin and capacity lines only; other valuation lines stay fixed. Margins are revenue-weighted within each metric, before separately modeled corporate costs and eliminations. The conclusion uses the row at our research margins when sales alone can match the price, otherwise the solved row needing the least sales growth; this is a trade-off between growth and profitability, not a forecast.

FY2030 sales factorFY2030 salesFY2026–30 CAGRRequired FY2030 marginRequirement
1.50×$15.9B26.1%
41.6% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
1.97×At research margins$21B35.1%
32.2% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
2.00×$21.3B35.5%
31.8% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails
3.00×$31.9B50.0%
21.7% GAAP EBIT
Within margin guardrails

CAGR uses $6.3B of same-scope FY2026 sales from the published model or its sourced research base, over four fiscal years. “Within margin guardrails” checks numeric limits only, not commercial plausibility. Each line and year must stay at or below 50.0% GAAP EBIT and 100% EBITDA, or our research margin where that is higher; capacity EBIT uses the engine's equipment depreciation. Unsolved margins are not extrapolated.

Implied discount rate
6.3%

The WACC that makes model value equal the price, shifting WACC and cost of equity by the same amount. Model: 9.1% WACC · 9.3% cost of equity.

All-business FY2030 sales factor
1.97×

FY2030 revenue would need to reach $21B (model: $10.6B) across the margin and capacity businesses. FY1 stays fixed; the sales change ramps to FY2030 and stays at that factor thereafter.

If only one business changed

Businesses with margin or capacity revenue paths, ordered by value today. Revenue and margin are separate alternatives; these requirements are not added together.

Computational Software and Services

Revenue alone
FY2030 revenue would need to reach $20.4B (model: $10.6B).
Margin alone

FY2030 EBIT margin would need to reach 60.7% (model: 32.2%).

Mechanical requirements, not forecasts. The separate sales-only and single-business factors are searched from 0.1× to 6×; an unsolved comparison means this business alone cannot get there within those bounds. Single-business revenue changes apply from FY2 onward; margin changes scale the full EBIT or EBITDA margin path. Mixed groups show revenue-weighted EBIT and EBITDA margins separately. Requirements above 100% are not feasible margins. Joint rows instead search non-negative uniform margin factors only up to the EBIT/EBITDA guardrails; the entire margin path scales, including post-FY2030 convergence. Sales and margins change together only in that table. The rate search runs from the largest terminal growth rate plus 0.5 percentage points to 30% WACC.

The discount rate

Cost of equity
9.31%

r_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.09 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp)

WACC
9.15%

methodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded

10-year Treasury · model / spot
3.87% · 5.13%

The model uses the recorded 5-year average Treasury yield. The spot yield is shown for context.

Every input, with its source

Show 13 inputs · reported, guidance and rule-based
InputValueBasisWhy
Revenue FY2026Computational Software and Services$6.3BGuidancetarget (methodology §4.2), growth 18.9% stockanalysis.com ↗
Revenue FY2030Computational Software and Services$10.6BGuidancehold moderate (methodology §4.2), growth 14.0% stockanalysis.com ↗
EBIT margin FY2030Computational Software and Services32.2%Rulelinear path to 32.2% by FY2030 (§4.3 E2: 4.0000 points = 4pp × clamp((CAGR − 1.5%) / 2%, 0, 1); revenue CAGR 14.9% to FY2030; no cited expansion evidence) sec.gov ↗
Maintenance capexComputational Software and Services2.7%ReportedFY2025 CFS cash PPE purchases $141.871M / revenue $5,296.759M =2.67845%; replaces unsupported 2% default, exceeds PPE depreciation. No material separately capitalized software cash identified; no acquisitions added to recurring PPE capex. sec.gov ↗
Terminal growthComputational Software and Services3.0%Rulemethodology §4.2 terminal growth for a growth line Valuation methodology §4.2 · Read methodology ↗
WACCDiscount rates9.15%Rulemethodology §4.5: market-weighted WACC, not rounded FRED DGS10 2021-10-20..2026-10-21
Cost of equityDiscount rates9.31%Ruler_f 3.87% (5-year average 10-year Treasury yield 3.87% (spot 5.13% on 2026-10-21)) + β 1.09 after Blume adjustment × 5%, rounded to 0.01% (1bp) 60 monthly returns vs SPY, 2021-09..2026-09 (adjusted closes)
Tax rateDiscount rates21.0%RuleNo verified normalized tax guidance or three-year cash-tax series; use the US statutory 21% fallback, not a transient GAAP benefit. sec.gov ↗
Cash and short-term investmentsBalance sheet$1.4BReportedcash, cash equivalents and short-term investments us-gaap:CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue · 0000813672-26-000092 (filed 2026-07-29)
BorrowingsBalance sheet$2.5BReportedborrowings due within a year plus long-term borrowings us-gaap:UnsecuredLongTermDebt · 0000813672-26-000092
Finance leasesBalance sheet$0.0BReportedno finance lease liability reported balance sheet 2026-06-30
SharesBalance sheet0.275BReportedshares outstanding as of 2026-06-30 cover page of 10-Q 0000813672-26-000092
Dividends per yearShareholders$0.0BReportedMost recent annual ordinary cash dividends; verify continuation against the latest release; no future repurchases. × 0.275B shares sec.gov ↗

Research notes

  • share-count comparison: 0.276163B quarter 2026-04-01..2026-06-30 · 0000813672-26-000092; point-in-time denominator retained
  • cost of equity 9.31% (β 1.09 after Blume adjustment), WACC 9.1%

Signal Ledger research built from cited consensus, company plans and peer economics because management sets no usable targets — not a forecast and not investment advice. The research desk (GPT-6.1 (Codex)) gathers filings, guidance and targets; deterministic code applies the samepublished rules to every company and checks the result. Inputs may contain errors; follow the source links before relying on them. Read our valuation methodology →